9 Jan 2010: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2009 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3   9 26.6  6.3 Texas                    124 49   0 20.6  2.6 Furman                  
  2  4   9 25.4  7.4 Florida                  125 38   0 17.9  6.0 Pennsylvania            
  3  4   8 24.8  7.9 Alabama                  126 14   0 20.2  2.8 Northern Arizona        
  4  4   8 25.2  6.5 Texas Christian          127 44   0 18.0  5.7 Army                    
  5 35   8 26.1  5.3 Oregon                   128 29   0 19.4  3.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
  6  5   7 23.9  7.7 Oklahoma                 129 13   0 18.8  4.4 Ball State              
  7 27   7 24.4  7.0 Virginia Tech            130 51   0 19.4  3.6 Lafayette               
  8  6   7 25.4  5.3 Boise State              131 15   0 18.3  4.8 Maine                   
  9  6   7 25.7  4.9 Cincinnati               132 52   0 19.0  4.0 Akron                   
 10  6   7 23.5  7.4 Ohio State               133 13   0 18.6  4.4 Harvard                 
 11 59   7 25.0  5.1 Georgia Tech             134 62   0 19.1  3.7 Washington State        
 12  7   7 24.5  5.7 Miami - Florida          135 13   0 18.3  4.7 Youngstown State        
 13 32   6 23.2  7.2 Louisiana State          136 39   0 19.7  2.8 Holy Cross              
 14  8   7 25.3  4.7 Arkansas                 137 56   0 19.2  3.5 New Mexico              
 15  8   7 24.6  5.4 Texas Tech               138 14   0 18.0  5.0 Montana State           
 16  9   6 22.5  7.8 Nebraska                 139 60   0 17.6  5.5 Samford                 
 17  9   6 22.8  7.2 Penn State               140 13   0 18.4  4.5 Hofstra                 
 18 44   6 24.8  4.8 Stanford                 141 67   0 19.1  3.5 Stephen F. Austin       
 19 36   6 23.6  6.2 Clemson                  142 31   0 19.4  3.1 Florida International   
 20 29   6 23.2  6.7 Southern California      143 32   0 19.8  2.6 North Dakota State      
 21 32   6 24.0  5.7 Oregon State             144 52   0 18.4  4.1 Miami - Ohio            
 22 24   6 23.8  5.8 Pittsburgh               145 24   0 19.6  2.5 McNeese State           
 23  9   6 23.2  6.4 Mississippi              146 22   0 18.5  3.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 24 15   6 23.2  6.3 Oklahoma State           147 13   0 19.9  2.0 North Texas             
 25 28   6 23.7  5.7 Arizona                  148 31   0 18.4  3.8 Illinois State          
 26 10   6 23.7  5.6 Tennessee                149 32  -1 18.4  3.8 Georgia Southern        
 27 32   6 24.2  5.0 Auburn                   150 31  -1 17.6  4.8 Missouri State          
 28 26   6 23.9  5.3 Brigham Young            151 22  -1 18.6  3.4 California - Davis      
 29 74   6 23.5  5.6 Georgia                  152 30  -1 19.5  2.1 Southern Utah           
 30 13   5 23.5  5.4 Missouri                 153 23  -1 18.2  3.8 Brown                   
 31 21   5 23.1  5.7 California               154 60  -1 18.9  2.8 Colgate                 
 32 41   5 22.8  6.1 West Virginia            155 23  -1 18.0  3.9 Eastern Illinois        
 33 37   5 22.0  7.1 Iowa                     156 57  -1 18.4  3.4 The Citadel             
 34 22   5 21.8  7.3 North Carolina           157 68  -1 19.0  2.6 Texas State - San Marcos
 35 16   5 22.1  6.9 South Carolina           158 47  -1 17.9  3.9 San Jose State          
 36 12   5 23.3  5.4 Wisconsin                159 13  -1 18.1  3.6 California Poly         
 37 12   5 24.9  3.2 Houston                  160 13  -1 18.9  2.5 Wofford                 
 38 12   5 22.2  6.4 Boston College           161 42  -1 19.2  2.1 South Dakota            
 39 12   5 22.3  6.4 Air Force                162 41  -1 17.1  4.8 New Mexico State        
 40 12   5 24.2  4.0 Nevada - Reno            163 43  -1 18.0  3.4 Tulane                  
 41 32   5 23.0  5.4 Notre Dame               164 88  -1 17.9  3.5 Prairie View            
 42 21   5 22.5  6.0 Utah                     165 26  -1 17.6  3.8 Stony Brook             
 43 19   5 23.1  5.3 Kentucky                 166 33  -1 18.0  3.3 North Dakota            
 44 23   5 23.6  4.6 Connecticut              167 19  -1 18.0  3.3 Albany                  
 45 27   5 21.8  6.8 California - Los Angeles 168 66  -1 16.8  4.7 Central Arkansas        
 46 40   5 23.7  4.4 Florida State            169 65  -2 18.4  2.6 Florida A&M             
 47 46   5 22.8  5.4 Washington               170 42  -2 19.0  1.8 Rice                    
 48 61   4 22.4  5.6 Mississippi State        171 85  -2 18.0  2.9 Norfolk State           
 49 12   4 22.3  5.6 Central Michigan         172 13  -2 16.6  4.6 Yale                    
 50 35   4 23.1  4.6 Kansas                   173 22  -2 18.9  1.5 Grambling               
 51 11   4 22.2  5.6 Navy                     174 37  -2 18.1  2.5 Eastern Michigan        
 52 53   4 21.6  6.4 Arizona State            175 13  -2 18.1  2.4 Sacramento State        
 53 37   4 22.1  5.8 East Carolina            176 13  -2 16.9  4.0 Lehigh                  
 54 23   4 22.2  5.7 Villanova                177 25  -2 16.9  3.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 55 26   4 23.7  3.7 Texas A&M                178 20  -2 17.2  3.4 Columbia                
 56 14   4 22.9  4.7 Michigan State           179 12  -2 16.4  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 57 12   4 21.6  6.1 South Florida            180 58  -2 18.0  2.3 Fordham                 
 58 48   4 22.1  5.5 Wake Forest              181 13  -2 18.4  1.6 Western Kentucky        
 59 13   4 23.0  4.3 Fresno State             182 19  -2 16.5  4.0 Western Carolina        
 60 40   4 21.6  5.9 Central Florida          183 27  -2 17.3  2.9 Tennessee Tech          
 61 13   3 21.4  5.9 Rutgers                  184 84  -3 17.7  2.4 Central Connecticut     
 62 73   3 21.7  5.5 Minnesota                185 23  -2 17.3  2.9 Northeastern            
 63 32   3 20.9  6.4 William & Mary           186 12  -3 16.3  3.8 Western Illinois        
 64 77   3 21.2  5.9 Virginia                 187 23  -3 18.0  1.4 Rhode Island            
 65 62   3 21.4  5.5 Kansas State             188 74  -3 16.5  3.3 Dayton                  
 66 51   3 21.9  4.8 Purdue                   189 47  -3 17.3  2.2 Charleston Southern     
 67 22   3 21.7  5.0 Richmond                 190 12  -3 16.6  3.2 Gardner - Webb          
 68 13   3 22.1  4.4 Southern Mississippi     191 15  -3 17.5  1.9 Southeast Louisiana     
 69 13   3 22.2  4.3 Michigan                 192 15  -3 16.3  3.4 Coastal Carolina        
 70 24   3 21.8  4.6 Temple                   193 11  -3 17.3  1.9 Portland State          
 71 13   3 22.0  4.2 Troy State               194 87  -3 17.3  1.9 Jacksonville            
 72 50   3 21.0  5.4 Baylor                   195 28  -3 17.5  1.5 Sam Houston State       
 73 30   3 21.2  5.1 Northern Iowa            196 91  -3 17.2  1.9 Old Dominion            
 74 63   3 20.7  5.7 Iowa State               197 25  -3 16.6  2.6 Drake                   
 75 18   3 21.4  4.9 Louisiana Tech           198 12  -3 16.3  2.9 Dartmouth               
 76 51   3 22.5  3.5 North Carolina State     199 45  -4 17.3  1.5 Tennessee - Martin      
 77 36   3 21.4  4.7 Illinois                 200 16  -4 16.1  3.0 Delaware State          
 78 49   3 21.1  5.0 Middle Tennessee State   201 22  -4 16.5  2.5 Towson                  
 79 75   3 21.1  5.0 Northwestern             202 18  -4 16.9  1.9 Virginia Military       
 80 42   3 21.8  4.1 Montana                  203 68  -4 15.7  3.5 Hampton                 
 81 71   2 21.2  4.8 Colorado                 204 13  -4 16.1  2.7 Cornell                 
 82 72   2 21.5  4.3 Duke                     205 57  -4 15.6  3.3 Monmouth                
 83 37   2 21.4  4.5 Southern Illinois        206 25  -4 15.1  4.0 Robert Morris           
 84 29   2 21.5  4.3 Tulsa                    207 34  -4 15.9  2.9 Southeast Missouri State
 85 14   2 20.7  5.3 Ohio                     208 60  -4 16.1  2.6 Alabama A&M             
 86 13   2 21.4  4.5 Bowling Green            209 16  -4 16.4  2.2 Idaho State             
 87 83   2 20.2  5.9 Vanderbilt               210 42  -4 16.4  2.2 Austin Peay             
 88 15   2 21.1  4.8 Northern Illinois        211 13  -4 16.4  2.2 Texas Southern          
 89 28   2 20.2  5.7 Elon                     212 16  -4 15.4  3.4 Princeton               
 90 41   2 21.7  3.8 Appalachian State        213 13  -4 15.3  3.5 Morgan State            
 91 34   2 20.5  5.4 Louisville               214 83  -4 16.4  1.9 Southern                
 92 66   2 20.9  4.7 Syracuse                 215 50  -4 14.8  4.1 Bryant                  
 93 14   2 21.1  4.0 Southern Methodist       216 13  -4 15.1  3.4 Bucknell                
 94 81   2 20.9  4.2 Maryland                 217 52  -4 14.5  4.3 Tennessee State         
 95 44   2 20.0  5.2 Marshall                 218 28  -5 16.9  0.9 Wagner                  
 96 32   2 21.0  4.0 Nevada - Las Vegas       219 12  -5 16.5  1.4 Nicholls State          
 97 47   2 21.1  3.8 New Hampshire            220 28  -5 15.7  2.3 San Diego               
 98 23   1 20.2  5.0 South Dakota State       221 64  -5 14.9  3.1 Marist                  
 99 15   2 21.8  2.9 Idaho                    222 42  -4 14.3  3.9 Jackson State           
100 14   1 20.4  4.6 Buffalo                  223 28  -5 14.9  3.2 North Carolina A&T      
101 67   1 19.7  5.4 Wyoming                  224 **  -5 14.8  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
102 71   1 21.1  3.5 Indiana                  225 93  -5 15.0  2.7 Butler                  
103 16   1 21.2  3.3 Utah State               226 19  -5 15.8  1.7 Alcorn State            
104 16   1 20.4  4.3 Colorado State           227 57  -5 15.0  2.7 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
105 32   1 19.4  5.5 James Madison            228 27  -5 15.6  1.8 North Carolina Central  
106 19   1 20.0  4.7 Northeast Louisiana      229 26  -5 14.3  3.2 Davidson                
107 14   1 20.7  3.8 Alabama - Birmingham     230 11  -5 15.1  2.0 Indiana State           
108 60   1 20.0  4.5 Jacksonville State       231 11  -5 15.0  2.2 Northwestern State      
109 14   1 20.0  4.5 Massachusetts            232 11  -6 15.9  0.8 Presbyterian            
110 37   1 20.2  4.2 Hawaii                   233 12  -5 14.0  3.4 Winston-Salem           
111 38   1 20.5  3.7 San Diego State          234 13  -6 14.9  1.9 Murray State            
112 37   1 20.4  3.9 Delaware                 235 31  -6 14.5  2.4 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
113 32   1 20.8  3.2 Texas - El Paso          236 27  -6 14.6  2.1 Duquesne                
114 45   1 20.6  3.4 Liberty                  237  9  -6 13.8  2.9 Georgetown              
115 46   0 19.7  4.4 Western Michigan         238 47  -6 15.1  1.2 Sacred Heart            
116 13   0 19.3  4.7 Arkansas State           239 91  -6 13.2  3.6 Alabama State           
117 17   0 19.7  4.2 Weber State              240 13  -6 14.0  2.2 Howard                  
118 32   0 19.8  3.9 South Carolina State     241 31  -7 12.8  2.7 Morehead State          
119 49   0 20.5  3.1 Eastern Washington       242 54  -7 13.4  1.8 Campbell                
120 57   0 20.7  2.6 Florida Atlantic         243  7  -7 12.6  2.0 Mississippi Valley State
121 13   0 21.1  2.2 Toledo                   244  8  -9 12.9  0.2 Savannah State          
122 53   0 18.8  4.9 Kent State               245 13  -9 11.8  0.7 Valparaiso              
123 34   0 19.7  3.7 Memphis                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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