prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 9 Kansas 49 61.9, 233 Northern Colorado 3 5.4
91% 59 Holy Cross 20 51.8, 224 Georgetown 7 12.7
91% 33 Utah 35 48.9, 200 Utah State 17 7.7
91% 24 Louisville 30 71.9, 240 Indiana State 10 12.5
91% 20 Auburn 37 47.4, 184 Louisiana Tech 13 7.5
91% 5 Florida 62 70.2, 228 Charleston Southern 3 8.0
91% 4 Southern California 56 49.3, 152 San Jose State 3 7.1
90% 43 New Hampshire 24 64.2, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 16.9
90% 30 Wisconsin 28 44.6, 162 Northern Illinois 20 13.3
90% 23 Penn State 31 43.5, 160 Akron 7 9.6
90% 21 Arizona State 50 60.3, 203 Idaho State 3 14.0
90% 15 Texas Tech 38 62.7, 212 North Dakota 13 14.5
90% 13 Clemson 37 45.4, 137 Middle Tennessee State 14 13.0
90% 8 Texas 59 50.9, 153 Northeast Louisiana 20 13.5
90% 2 West Virginia 33 53.4, 120 Liberty 20 15.7
89% 94 Southern Mississippi 52 42.7, 231 Alcorn State 0 8.7
89% 72 Central Florida 28 55.1, 229 Samford 24 16.0
89% 71 Vanderbilt 45 48.2, 202 Western Carolina 0 16.5
89% 34 Oregon State 34 49.4, 168 Portland State 7 17.7
88% 50 Georgia Tech 37 41.7, 165 Jacksonville State 17 12.8
88% 31 Hawaii 25 60.5, 207 Central Arkansas 20 19.9
88% 29 Arkansas 48 57.0, 210 Missouri State 10 17.1
88% 17 Boston College 54 40.2, 128 Northeastern 0 12.0
88% 6 Ohio State 31 48.3, 74 Navy 27 19.7
87% 93 Houston 55 44.7, 201 Northwestern State 7 20.5
87% 48 Michigan State 44 41.2, 159 Montana State 3 17.0
86% 163 Arkansas State 61 40.5, 238 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 13.6
86% 102 Hampton 31 45.1, 211 North Carolina Central 24 20.3
86% 100 Furman 45 45.9, 214 Presbyterian 21 20.4
86% 25 Tennessee 63 41.3, 121 Western Kentucky 7 18.3
86% 22 Michigan 31 39.3, 107 Western Michigan 7 17.0
85% 83 Mississippi State 45 40.3, 187 Jackson State 7 14.1
85% 68 Villanova 27 38.9, 198 Temple 24 15.7
85% 52 California - Los Angel 33 38.4, 129 San Diego State 14 18.0
84% 61 Air Force 72 36.9, 150 Nicholls State 0 15.2
84% 57 Purdue 52 47.6, 133 Toledo 31 27.7
84% 53 Nebraska 49 44.4, 134 Florida Atlantic 3 25.0
83% 40 Kentucky 42 41.1, 148 Miami - Ohio 0 22.0
82% 110 Elon 56 42.9, 186 Davidson 0 24.5
82% 16 South Florida 40 38.8, 78 Wofford 7 21.2
82% 7 Missouri 37 40.1, 66 Illinois 9 22.8
82% 1 Louisiana State 31 41.6, 63 Washington 23 23.2
81% 118 Wyoming 29 35.2, 182 Weber State 22 19.1
81% 56 Arizona 19 42.0, 112 Central Michigan 6 26.2
80% 222 Prairie View 17 32.2, 244 Texas Southern 7 16.3
80% 90 Colgate 35 34.3, 158 Monmouth 23 17.3
80% 54 Richmond 24 37.6, 156 Duke 16 20.9
79% 149 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 31.2, 197 Sacramento State 3 17.2
79% 91 Hofstra 17 34.7, 139 Stony Brook 10 20.9
79% 76 Fresno State 51 40.3, 131 California - Davis 0 25.9
79% 64 Tulsa 37 43.0, 175 Tulane 13 27.3
78% 171 Southern Methodist 31 36.0, 219 Stephen F. Austin 23 23.0
77% 96 Indiana 19 36.4, 140 Eastern Kentucky 13 23.9
77% 86 North Carolina 40 37.0, 125 The Citadel 6 24.8
77% 62 Connecticut 23 33.4, 138 Ohio 16 21.6
75% 65 Pittsburgh 38 29.6, 99 Youngstown State 3 19.7
71% 106 Northwestern 47 27.9, 136 Towson 14 19.6
71% 87 Notre Dame 35 33.5, 103 Nevada - Reno 0 25.7
71% 55 Texas A&M 41 28.1, 75 New Mexico 6 19.8
70% 27 California 52 31.4, 45 Maryland 13 23.9
67% 177 Alabama A&M 24 34.7, 220 Tennessee State 7 29.1
67% 122 South Carolina State 34 29.1, 157 Grambling 31 22.7
65% 97 Georgia Southern 29 30.8, 108 Albany 26 25.6
64% 176 Alabama - Birmingham 44 38.1, 167 Rice 24 33.6
64% 169 Duquesne 24 29.0, 178 Bucknell 19 23.5
64% 38 South Carolina 7 27.3, 85 North Carolina State 3 22.4
63% 115 Mississippi 45 31.4, 146 Memphis 14 27.2
57% 14 Boise State 19 37.8, 11 Oregon 8 36.3
56% 116 Minnesota 23 32.9, 142 Syracuse 20 31.6
49% 161 Kent State 18 26.9, 135 Coastal Carolina 0 27.1
48% 80 Iowa 17 21.6, 58 Northern Iowa 16 22.0
45% 191 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 28.8, 172 Southern 19 30.1
41% 26 Cincinnati 47 25.9, 35 Rutgers 15 27.8
40% 151 Rhode Island 41 28.2, 119 Fordham 28 30.4
40% 141 Western Illinois 35 25.0, 145 Sam Houston State 28 27.7
36% 179 Army 27 22.9, 170 Eastern Michigan 14 28.0
34% 196 Idaho 21 30.5, 189 New Mexico State 6 35.8
34% 67 Kansas State 21 27.4, 28 Massachusetts 17 32.8
34% 36 Oklahoma State 24 28.5, 12 Georgia 10 34.0
33% 232 Marist 31 27.3, 226 Sacred Heart 12 33.7
33% 130 Bowling Green 31 29.3, 81 Troy State 14 35.3
31% 164 Eastern Illinois 31 25.7, 111 Illinois State 6 32.6
30% 166 Buffalo 23 29.5, 144 Texas - El Paso 17 36.9
26% 218 Florida A&M 21 18.0, 155 Delaware State 12 27.9
26% 113 Stanford 39 21.1, 73 Washington State 13 30.5
25% 79 Miami - Florida 38 19.6, 49 Florida State 34 29.5
25% 42 Alabama 34 18.9, 10 Virginia Tech 24 29.1
25% 19 Brigham Young 14 25.2, 3 Oklahoma 13 35.4
24% 237 Virginia Military 14 24.0, 195 Robert Morris 13 35.8
24% 132 Marshall 31 25.0, 60 Southern Illinois 28 36.7
24% 95 East Carolina 29 30.3, 18 Appalachian State 24 41.4
23% 123 Iowa State 34 22.2, 39 North Dakota State 17 34.4
22% 109 Colorado State 23 22.6, 70 Colorado 17 34.3
16% 173 Central Connecticut 28 17.0, 89 Lehigh 21 37.8
15% 242 North Carolina A&T 19 19.3, 209 Winston-Salem 10 40.8
14% 127 William & Mary 26 20.4, 47 Virginia 14 41.5
13% 204 North Texas 20 21.7, 105 Ball State 10 47.0
12% 154 Baylor 24 15.1, 44 Wake Forest 21 40.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.51 15 0.72 26 0.76 39 1.02 11 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 98 69 76.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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