prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 19 Alabama 40 55.5, 204 Florida International 14 4.9
92% 15 Oklahoma 64 57.2, 203 Idaho State 0 5.2
92% 7 Cincinnati 70 68.2, 235 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 2.0
91% 35 Texas Tech 55 55.8, 183 Rice 10 19.4
91% 30 Penn State 28 37.2, 155 Syracuse 7 4.7
91% 12 Boise State 48 43.4, 185 Miami - Ohio 0 0.4
90% 106 Holy Cross 52 50.9, 240 Sacred Heart 21 8.5
90% 98 California Poly 38 40.7, 226 Sacramento State 19 11.4
90% 71 Northern Iowa 66 46.3, 220 South Dakota 7 10.0
90% 11 Brigham Young 54 42.5, 173 Tulane 3 6.0
90% 6 California 59 46.7, 101 Eastern Washington 7 16.4
90% 2 Florida 56 47.4, 111 Troy State 6 13.8
89% 109 Wofford 42 41.3, 231 Charleston Southern 14 9.1
89% 81 Liberty 35 42.6, 202 North Carolina Central 10 13.8
89% 17 Kansas 34 48.5, 170 Texas - El Paso 7 15.8
89% 8 Boston College 34 36.9, 126 Kent State 7 1.3
88% 205 Alabama State 20 36.5, 245 Savannah State 17 5.3
88% 144 Northeast Louisiana 58 47.3, 242 Texas Southern 0 10.4
88% 103 North Carolina State 65 47.9, 236 Murray State 7 7.0
88% 70 Colorado State 24 39.2, 168 Weber State 23 15.5
88% 69 Northwestern 27 41.3, 177 Eastern Michigan 24 15.3
88% 14 South Florida 35 42.9, 165 Western Kentucky 13 10.6
88% 3 Missouri 27 44.2, 83 Bowling Green 20 14.7
87% 56 Elon 41 43.2, 210 Presbyterian 7 12.4
86% 118 San Diego State 35 41.4, 206 Southern Utah 19 18.2
86% 76 Rutgers 45 47.2, 211 Howard 7 12.5
85% 73 Illinois 45 36.2, 166 Illinois State 17 12.0
85% 55 Arizona 34 34.9, 141 Northern Arizona 17 11.1
85% 44 Navy 32 48.4, 145 Louisiana Tech 14 27.8
85% 9 Texas 41 43.2, 115 Wyoming 10 20.7
84% 153 Grambling 38 40.8, 230 Northwestern State 17 18.9
84% 136 Youngstown State 38 34.4, 227 Austin Peay 21 8.9
84% 110 Hofstra 40 33.4, 217 Bryant 24 12.6
84% 42 Washington 42 37.8, 162 Idaho 23 10.8
83% 121 Eastern Illinois 31 33.0, 229 Indiana State 0 10.8
83% 5 Louisiana State 23 33.6, 53 Vanderbilt 9 12.3
82% 198 Samford 27 36.6, 238 Jacksonville 0 19.5
82% 123 Middle Tennessee State 31 37.2, 174 Memphis 14 20.5
82% 80 Montana 17 34.4, 195 California - Davis 10 13.9
82% 74 Florida State 19 39.7, 148 Jacksonville State 9 20.2
82% 64 Massachusetts 44 30.5, 125 Albany 7 12.8
82% 25 Nebraska 38 38.0, 93 Arkansas State 9 17.2
82% 13 West Virginia 35 37.1, 51 East Carolina 20 20.0
81% 85 Villanova 38 34.6, 147 Lehigh 17 19.4
81% 54 Utah 24 32.4, 163 San Jose State 14 13.5
81% 28 Virginia Tech 52 38.2, 84 Marshall 10 19.3
80% 112 Colgate 23 31.7, 159 Stony Brook 13 18.0
80% 95 Lafayette 28 27.9, 201 Georgetown 3 9.5
80% 37 Pittsburgh 54 28.9, 132 Buffalo 27 11.5
79% 190 Bucknell 26 25.6, 232 Robert Morris 23 11.9
79% 140 Akron 41 30.6, 189 Morgan State 0 16.0
78% 78 William & Mary 33 38.3, 134 Central Connecticut 14 24.0
78% 60 Southern Mississippi 26 33.3, 102 Central Florida 19 18.0
77% 22 Oregon 38 34.6, 40 Purdue 36 21.5
76% 184 Florida A&M 34 27.5, 237 Winston-Salem 10 15.4
76% 116 South Carolina State 24 34.5, 187 Bethune - Cookman 3 23.7
76% 99 Furman 38 35.8, 175 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 25.3
75% 33 Auburn 49 23.0, 63 Mississippi State 24 12.5
73% 38 Oregon State 23 24.2, 105 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 13.7
72% 72 Hawaii 38 38.9, 122 Washington State 20 30.2
71% 27 Michigan 38 20.1, 45 Notre Dame 34 10.1
70% 90 Indiana 23 27.6, 114 Western Michigan 19 19.9
69% 39 Texas Christian 30 21.8, 94 Virginia 14 14.3
67% 50 Tulsa 44 28.9, 117 New Mexico 10 22.5
67% 1 Southern California 18 24.7, 16 Ohio State 15 17.9
64% 133 Maine 17 21.2, 178 Northeastern 7 15.3
63% 104 New Hampshire 23 27.5, 156 Ball State 16 21.6
63% 29 Georgia 41 17.9, 34 South Carolina 37 12.7
60% 208 New Mexico State 21 17.8, 213 Prairie View 18 14.6
60% 197 Gardner - Webb 27 29.0, 222 Western Carolina 20 26.2
60% 96 South Dakota State 44 34.0, 82 Georgia Southern 6 31.8
54% 131 Northern Illinois 41 25.9, 120 Western Illinois 7 25.1
52% 129 Ohio 31 26.5, 150 North Texas 30 25.9
50% 181 Coastal Carolina 24 20.9, 160 Monmouth 17 20.8
50% 154 Alabama A&M 31 25.1, 130 Hampton 24 25.2
50% 57 Iowa 35 18.3, 75 Iowa State 3 18.4
45% 215 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 20.3, 194 Morehead State 0 21.3
45% 200 Drake 34 21.3, 214 Marist 6 22.3
42% 46 Wisconsin 34 23.0, 31 Fresno State 31 24.9
39% 127 Toledo 54 31.2, 97 Colorado 38 34.6
38% 138 Duke 35 18.7, 142 Army 19 22.6
38% 91 Maryland 38 23.7, 47 James Madison 35 28.0
38% 59 North Carolina 12 17.4, 62 Connecticut 10 21.1
37% 89 Wake Forest 24 19.9, 48 Stanford 17 24.9
37% 65 Richmond 16 25.3, 58 Delaware 15 29.5
35% 223 Nicholls State 14 18.6, 167 Duquesne 7 27.0
35% 212 Missouri State 24 24.0, 172 Tennessee - Martin 14 29.4
33% 52 Georgia Tech 30 23.1, 21 Clemson 27 29.0
32% 228 Tennessee State 14 23.4, 193 Jackson State 7 30.6
31% 233 North Carolina A&T 17 19.0, 192 Norfolk State 13 27.0
24% 161 Southern Methodist 35 24.9, 137 Alabama - Birmingham 33 34.3
24% 151 Sam Houston State 48 25.8, 79 North Dakota State 45 36.4
22% 61 Houston 45 21.1, 20 Oklahoma State 35 37.4
20% 135 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 23.7, 36 Kansas State 15 40.5
20% 108 McNeese State 40 24.6, 49 Appalachian State 35 38.7
20% 92 Minnesota 20 22.9, 10 Air Force 13 42.9
18% 41 California - Los Angel 19 17.1, 4 Tennessee 15 35.6
17% 107 Central Michigan 29 17.8, 26 Michigan State 27 40.9
16% 225 Northern Colorado 31 18.4, 88 San Diego 12 40.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.71 21 0.74 19 0.96 42 1.06 9 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 99 74 76.2 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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