2009 Week 3 (17-19 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  97 McNeese State           56 65.5,   245 Savannah State           0 -0.7
 92%  81 Central Michigan        48 51.4,   237 Alcorn State             0  4.3
 92%  80 South Dakota State      41 48.8,   232 Indiana State            0  3.9
 92%  61 Mississippi             52 45.0,   202 Southeast Louisiana      6  6.0
 92%  40 South Carolina          38 42.1,   165 Florida Atlantic        16  9.4
 92%  35 Oklahoma State          41 56.1,   185 Rice                    24 12.2
 92%  29 Penn State              31 42.2,   164 Temple                   6  5.0
 92%  21 Michigan                45 48.4,   167 Eastern Michigan        17  9.2
 92%  14 South Florida           59 59.2,   219 Charleston Southern      0  1.0
 92%   7 Kansas                  44 47.6,   106 Duke                    16 11.2
 91%  65 Delaware                27 40.2,   189 Delaware State          17  7.1
 91%  41 Northern Iowa           30 46.3,   188 Saint Francis - Pennsy   0  7.1
 91%  39 Texas Christian         56 48.2,   172 Texas State - San Marc  21 11.2
 91%  31 Alabama                 53 47.1,   162 North Texas              7 12.3
 91%  22 Texas A&M               38 47.7,   147 Utah State              30 11.8
 90%  85 North Carolina State    45 33.7,   193 Gardner - Webb          14  3.8
 90%  69 Rutgers                 23 45.7,   199 Florida International   15  9.9
 90%   8 Missouri                52 48.2,    94 Furman                  12 16.3
 90%   6 Louisiana State         31 50.1,   132 Louisiana - Lafayette    3  7.5
 89%  66 Yale                    31 36.7,   224 Georgetown              10  4.3
 89%  54 James Madison           44 54.8,   217 Virginia Military       16 10.6
 89%  17 Kentucky                31 44.1,    93 Louisville              27 17.3
 88% 127 San Diego               17 47.4,   236 Marist                  10 13.9
 88%  98 North Dakota State      59 42.4,   216 Wagner                  28 13.6
 88%  15 Ohio State              38 46.0,    89 Toledo                   0 20.3
 87% 146 Georgia Southern        27 41.8,   220 Western Carolina         3 20.0
 87%  50 Massachusetts           30 39.0,   129 Rhode Island            10 16.1
 87%  23 Arizona State           38 40.9,   116 Northeast Louisiana     14 12.2
 86% 139 Eastern Kentucky        17 39.4,   225 Tennessee Tech           7 14.3
 86% 138 Northern Arizona        42 38.8,   198 Southern Utah           39 20.7
 86% 117 Eastern Illinois        23 38.9,   234 Southeast Missouri Sta  14  8.4
 86%  46 Richmond                47 32.6,   114 Hofstra                  0 12.0
 85% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   27 32.1,   242 Mississippi Valley Sta   7 12.4
 85%  88 Montana                 49 34.9,   169 Portland State          17 14.5
 85%   3 California              35 40.1,    70 Minnesota               21 19.0
 84% 157 Weber State             44 39.7,   208 Idaho State             17 22.3
 84%  90 William & Mary          27 37.8,   200 Norfolk State           15 16.8
 84%  71 Stanford                42 31.3,   136 San Jose State          17 11.6
 84%   5 Texas                   34 41.0,    32 Texas Tech              24 25.9
 83% 110 Western Michigan        48 25.4,   176 Miami - Ohio            26  8.3
 83%  33 Air Force               37 31.5,   125 New Mexico              13 12.8
 82% 191 Missouri State          35 43.5,   238 Murray State            10 19.0
 82% 134 Dayton                  21 32.6,   228 Robert Morris           14 14.0
 82%  42 Wisconsin               44 36.7,   100 Wofford                 14 17.9
 81% 144 Louisiana Tech          48 30.1,   212 Nicholls State          13 10.1
 81%  25 California - Los Angel  23 28.7,    64 Kansas State             9 13.0
 81%   4 Oklahoma                45 39.9,    34 Tulsa                    0 19.4
 80% 187 Florida A&M             48 31.1,   223 Howard                  10 17.7
 80% 159 Illinois State          38 37.6,   229 Austin Peay              7 16.1
 80% 143 Cornell                 33 39.0,   196 Bucknell                 9 22.1
 79% 154 Hampton                 24 34.5,   231 North Carolina A&T      14 18.8
 79%   2 Florida                 23 39.0,    18 Tennessee               13 25.2
 78% 211 Old Dominion            28 31.1,   239 Jacksonville            27 18.6
 78% 112 Eastern Washington      16 28.8,   177 Northern Colorado        0 12.2
 78%  36 Iowa                    27 20.7,    56 Arizona                 17  9.3
 78%  16 Oregon                  31 32.4,    57 Utah                    24 16.5
 77% 201 Morgan State            16 27.7,   233 Winston-Salem           10 17.2
 77%  87 Central Florida         23 39.3,   135 Buffalo                 17 25.9
 77%  38 Pittsburgh              27 39.6,    58 Navy                    14 26.9
 76% 141 Grambling               27 34.2,   213 Jackson State           17 22.7
 76% 118 Washington State        30 38.0,   148 Southern Methodist      27 26.5
 76%  91 Colorado State          35 30.1,   149 Nevada - Reno           20 15.1
 75% 178 Monmouth                17 26.5,   214 Duquesne                10 14.9
 73% 113 Troy State              27 33.6,   156 Alabama - Birmingham    14 20.6
 72%  10 Cincinnati              28 30.5,    47 Oregon State            18 21.4
 71%  51 North Carolina          31 26.3,    62 East Carolina           17 18.5
 70% 194 Southern                21 27.3,   218 Tennessee State         17 19.0
 70% 171 Memphis                 41 33.1,   183 Tennessee - Martin      14 25.2
 70%  74 Southern Mississippi    37 24.7,    95 Virginia                34 15.4
 70%  20 Virginia Tech           16 30.6,    28 Nebraska                15 22.2
 70%  11 Boise State             51 30.5,    43 Fresno State            34 21.8
 64%  60 Wake Forest             35 27.1,    75 Elon                     7 20.0
 63% 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog  29 29.2,   215 Presbyterian            13 24.4
 62% 175 North Dakota            27 24.1,   209 Northwestern State      20 19.6
 62% 160 Texas - El Paso         38 29.4,   195 New Mexico State        12 23.9
 62% 133 Youngstown State        38 22.9,   179 Northeastern            21 18.2
 62% 115 Colgate                 34 30.3,   142 Dartmouth               15 27.2
 62% 103 Colorado                24 26.2,   108 Wyoming                  0 22.2
 61%  59 Notre Dame              33 30.1,    52 Michigan State          30 26.2
 58% 152 Army                    24 20.3,   137 Ball State              17 18.6
 58%  48 Miami - Florida         33 34.0,    45 Georgia Tech            17 32.3
 57%  19 Auburn                  41 29.3,    12 West Virginia           30 27.9
 56%  76 Villanova               14 25.2,   102 Pennsylvania             3 24.2
 53% 184 Towson                  21 20.1,   173 Coastal Carolina        17 19.2

 49%  82 Liberty                 19 22.6,   101 Lafayette               13 22.9
 47% 123 Ohio                    28 34.1,    99 California Poly         10 34.7
 47% 111 Iowa State              34 16.5,   130 Kent State              14 17.0
 46% 221 South Dakota            51 25.1,   197 Drake                   21 26.1
 45%  86 Indiana                 38 21.0,   104 Akron                   21 22.2
 41% 151 Jacksonville State      45 20.0,   158 Alabama A&M             13 22.5
 41%  73 Connecticut             30 18.8,    83 Baylor                  22 20.5
 40% 163 Central Arkansas        28 22.7,   168 Western Kentucky         7 25.8
 40% 153 Idaho                   34 25.3,   120 San Diego State         20 27.7
 40%  26 Georgia                 52 30.8,    27 Arkansas                41 34.2
 40%  24 Clemson                 25 25.9,    13 Boston College           7 28.1
 39% 166 Albany                  20 18.5,   131 Maine                   16 21.4
 39% 124 Syracuse                37 25.0,    84 Northwestern            34 28.9
 36%  96 Nevada - Las Vegas      34 25.9,    55 Hawaii                  33 30.7
 33% 109 Holy Cross              27 22.5,    67 Harvard                 20 30.5
 31% 235 Davidson                24 23.9,   210 Campbell                 7 31.0
 30% 226 Morehead State          13 17.4,   206 North Carolina Central  10 25.1
 30% 170 Stony Brook             21 22.1,   105 Brown                   20 29.2
 25% 145 The Citadel             38 19.8,   122 Princeton                7 29.7
 25% 128 Marshall                17 25.4,    72 Bowling Green           10 34.5
 24%  78 Mississippi State       15 14.2,    53 Vanderbilt               3 25.2
 22% 186 Columbia                40 23.3,   150 Fordham                 28 34.9
 17% 119 Middle Tennessee State  32 17.3,    49 Maryland                31 36.1
 16% 207 Stephen F. Austin       40 14.2,   155 Western Illinois        30 32.2
 13%  92 Northern Illinois       28 20.4,    37 Purdue                  21 38.4
 13%  44 Washington              16 20.2,     1 Southern California     13 39.6
  9%  77 Florida State           54  8.8,     9 Brigham Young           28 36.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               14 0.64  18 0.87  26 1.07  37 1.04  16 1.02   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111  84  85.3 0.98

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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