prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 122 South Carolina State 27 38.5, 233 Winston-Salem 10 4.2
92% 106 Youngstown State 28 42.2, 235 Indiana State 0 10.4
92% 84 Baylor 68 44.6, 211 Northwestern State 13 10.4
92% 68 Villanova 56 41.7, 188 Northeastern 7 8.8
92% 52 Navy 38 47.5, 178 Western Kentucky 22 17.0
92% 45 Texas A&M 56 44.6, 160 Alabama - Birmingham 19 14.4
92% 37 Northern Iowa 35 41.5, 194 Missouri State 7 6.7
92% 28 Richmond 38 56.2, 204 Virginia Military 28 3.8
92% 10 Southern California 27 43.2, 116 Washington State 6 5.4
92% 9 Auburn 54 49.6, 159 Ball State 30 5.8
92% 7 Texas 64 51.0, 129 Texas - El Paso 7 12.9
92% 4 Missouri 31 46.7, 132 Nevada - Reno 21 12.0
91% 170 Texas State - San Marc 52 51.8, 244 Texas Southern 18 11.3
91% 100 Duke 49 45.7, 223 North Carolina Central 14 10.7
91% 98 The Citadel 46 44.4, 220 Presbyterian 21 9.0
91% 41 Air Force 26 42.2, 133 San Diego State 14 14.2
91% 31 Nebraska 55 39.6, 123 Louisiana - Lafayette 0 11.9
91% 11 Kansas 35 41.5, 74 Southern Mississippi 28 16.7
90% 151 Albany 22 55.3, 240 Sacred Heart 9 16.7
90% 105 Furman 33 43.3, 226 Western Carolina 14 19.1
90% 50 Massachusetts 44 33.8, 144 Stony Brook 17 7.1
90% 21 Tennessee 34 40.2, 109 Ohio 23 14.2
89% 187 Southern 48 34.7, 237 Alcorn State 42 10.8
89% 64 Tulsa 56 45.7, 153 Sam Houston State 3 23.3
89% 63 Kansas State 49 51.6, 219 Tennessee Tech 7 7.4
88% 128 Eastern Illinois 30 32.8, 232 Austin Peay 20 8.7
88% 97 Colgate 20 42.1, 180 Fordham 12 18.5
88% 53 Connecticut 52 37.3, 145 Rhode Island 10 10.5
87% 78 Vanderbilt 36 36.3, 171 Rice 17 16.0
87% 5 Boise State 49 38.2, 92 Bowling Green 14 14.7
86% 163 Eastern Kentucky 23 40.5, 238 Murray State 13 13.0
86% 127 Utah State 53 41.6, 197 Southern Utah 34 21.5
86% 6 Ohio State 30 32.0, 60 Illinois 0 6.9
85% 49 Oklahoma State 56 45.4, 149 Grambling 6 17.9
84% 136 Dayton 24 32.0, 209 Duquesne 17 10.9
84% 108 Jacksonville State 60 34.1, 216 Nicholls State 10 10.8
84% 90 New Hampshire 44 39.9, 158 Dartmouth 14 22.3
84% 26 Michigan 36 37.8, 79 Indiana 33 18.9
83% 29 Brigham Young 42 36.9, 85 Colorado State 23 17.6
82% 181 Coastal Carolina 28 29.2, 234 North Carolina A&T 7 7.5
81% 99 Iowa State 31 27.8, 150 Army 10 12.5
81% 73 Harvard 24 35.1, 120 Brown 21 18.6
80% 87 Elon 28 34.2, 141 Georgia Southern 14 17.8
79% 102 Middle Tennessee State 37 34.1, 177 North Texas 21 20.2
79% 75 Appalachian State 20 45.3, 185 Samford 7 18.4
79% 67 South Dakota State 38 35.0, 155 Illinois State 17 20.4
78% 165 Florida A&M 31 29.6, 222 Tennessee State 12 13.9
78% 81 Central Michigan 48 31.4, 126 Akron 21 18.2
78% 51 Utah 30 34.6, 76 Louisville 14 21.4
78% 12 Cincinnati 28 43.6, 46 Fresno State 20 26.7
77% 200 Bucknell 17 27.3, 236 Marist 16 10.7
77% 117 Eastern Washington 56 30.6, 201 Sacramento State 30 13.4
77% 2 Florida 41 35.0, 35 Kentucky 7 23.7
76% 32 Wisconsin 38 39.6, 57 Michigan State 30 27.5
76% 18 Alabama 35 40.9, 40 Arkansas 7 30.0
76% 8 Louisiana State 30 30.4, 59 Mississippi State 26 16.6
75% 157 Kent State 29 27.1, 184 Miami - Ohio 19 16.2
75% 113 Toledo 41 39.1, 189 Florida International 31 27.8
75% 86 Montana 41 34.3, 140 Northern Arizona 34 24.3
74% 107 Western Michigan 24 29.8, 134 Hofstra 10 19.3
73% 196 Tennessee - Martin 29 33.5, 230 Southeast Missouri Sta 22 20.4
73% 186 Alabama A&M 28 27.0, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 16.2
69% 111 Syracuse 41 24.0, 148 Maine 24 14.1
69% 71 East Carolina 19 31.5, 93 Central Florida 14 22.6
67% 190 South Dakota 44 31.9, 207 Southeast Louisiana 13 24.2
67% 173 Monmouth 31 29.2, 208 Old Dominion 28 23.2
67% 13 Virginia Tech 31 29.3, 22 Miami - Florida 7 19.0
64% 143 Weber State 36 35.9, 183 Portland State 29 31.5
64% 110 Lafayette 20 17.0, 115 Pennsylvania 17 12.1
64% 47 South Carolina 16 27.5, 55 Mississippi 10 21.1
64% 36 Boston College 27 22.5, 44 Wake Forest 24 16.4
63% 198 Norfolk State 40 26.0, 203 Bethune - Cookman 14 21.1
61% 112 Marshall 27 29.3, 137 Memphis 16 26.3
61% 20 Georgia 20 31.2, 30 Arizona State 17 25.3
59% 70 Minnesota 35 34.1, 95 Northwestern 24 31.7
59% 38 Georgia Tech 24 24.5, 34 North Carolina 7 22.4
56% 103 Southern Illinois 24 39.3, 82 North Dakota State 14 38.0
55% 182 Stephen F. Austin 65 27.9, 168 North Dakota 31 26.8
54% 146 Princeton 17 24.4, 164 Lehigh 14 23.7
54% 69 James Madison 24 28.5, 89 Liberty 10 27.7
53% 121 Northeast Louisiana 27 28.2, 138 Florida Atlantic 25 27.3
50% 48 Notre Dame 24 31.6, 56 Purdue 21 31.7
49% 156 San Jose State 19 28.0, 125 California Poly 9 28.2
48% 152 Temple 37 26.2, 124 Buffalo 13 26.6
45% 24 Iowa 21 16.8, 43 Penn State 10 17.6
44% 166 Delaware State 21 21.4, 169 Hampton 6 22.7
43% 16 South Florida 17 28.1, 19 Florida State 7 29.6
41% 214 Wagner 56 18.1, 193 Saint Francis - Pennsy 48 19.7
40% 104 William & Mary 30 28.1, 72 Delaware 20 31.3
40% 42 Houston 29 33.1, 23 Texas Tech 28 35.0
40% 15 Oregon 42 30.5, 3 California 3 33.6
39% 205 Bryant 20 20.2, 215 Robert Morris 13 23.4
39% 195 Montana State 25 7.8, 191 Northern Colorado 7 13.5
39% 176 Central Connecticut 22 22.7, 179 Columbia 13 25.4
39% 114 Troy State 30 21.3, 118 Arkansas State 27 25.6
37% 131 Wyoming 30 16.5, 94 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 21.3
36% 65 Stanford 34 25.2, 27 Washington 14 30.2
36% 58 Arizona 37 17.5, 61 Oregon State 32 21.9
32% 91 Rutgers 34 24.5, 66 Maryland 13 32.9
31% 218 Morgan State 12 15.7, 172 Towson 9 23.9
31% 174 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 20.8, 119 Wofford 9 29.0
31% 80 North Carolina State 38 15.7, 33 Pittsburgh 31 24.9
23% 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 11.2, 229 Alabama State 3 28.5
23% 231 Howard 14 16.9, 206 Georgetown 11 28.6
23% 39 Texas Christian 14 18.5, 17 Clemson 10 29.3
21% 202 New Mexico State 20 13.0, 135 New Mexico 17 34.6
15% 199 Tulane 42 15.9, 101 McNeese State 32 36.2
15% 147 Idaho 34 13.3, 88 Northern Illinois 31 30.3
11% 243 Butler 28 6.8, 224 Morehead State 21 33.8
11% 142 Cornell 14 13.0, 62 Yale 12 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.84 25 0.74 24 1.08 26 0.98 20 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 81 83.6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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