prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 89 Jacksonville State 41 50.4, 237 Murray State 7 12.3
92% 78 Appalachian State 55 52.3, 222 North Carolina Central 21 10.8
92% 62 Rutgers 42 61.2, 244 Texas Southern 0 -1.1
92% 13 Kansas 41 40.7, 103 Iowa State 36 11.6
92% 5 Oklahoma 33 42.7, 69 Baylor 7 11.0
92% 2 Texas 38 45.7, 76 Colorado 14 14.4
91% 68 Central Michigan 56 39.6, 169 Eastern Michigan 8 14.1
90% 51 Navy 63 50.5, 178 Rice 14 25.7
89% 118 Pennsylvania 21 34.2, 194 Bucknell 3 8.6
87% 96 Northwestern 16 38.8, 180 Miami - Ohio 6 16.8
87% 19 Brigham Young 59 41.8, 136 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 18.9
86% 167 Central Connecticut 42 31.1, 218 Robert Morris 21 11.7
86% 7 Ohio State 31 31.3, 21 Wisconsin 13 12.6
85% 171 Lehigh 27 27.4, 220 Georgetown 0 9.9
85% 94 Colgate 21 29.6, 197 Princeton 14 10.2
85% 26 Penn State 52 42.1, 160 Eastern Illinois 3 6.6
85% 15 West Virginia 34 42.1, 104 Syracuse 13 23.4
83% 154 Central Arkansas 34 33.3, 229 Northwestern State 0 13.0
83% 142 Albany 55 27.5, 196 Duquesne 10 9.2
83% 116 Yale 38 33.6, 164 Dartmouth 7 17.8
83% 91 Lafayette 24 29.6, 150 Columbia 21 12.2
83% 87 William & Mary 34 38.1, 191 Northeastern 14 18.3
83% 85 Southern Illinois 43 32.8, 145 Illinois State 23 16.1
82% 203 Morgan State 7 24.4, 233 North Carolina A&T 6 9.4
82% 190 San Diego 48 42.2, 243 Valparaiso 7 21.1
81% 33 Wake Forest 42 34.4, 67 Maryland 32 19.8
80% 184 Sam Houston State 44 38.7, 212 Nicholls State 21 25.6
80% 175 Hampton 37 30.3, 211 Howard 0 15.2
80% 159 Dayton 35 37.5, 238 Campbell 17 16.4
80% 84 North Carolina 42 28.0, 127 Georgia Southern 12 12.1
80% 80 South Dakota State 24 28.6, 173 Missouri State 17 12.5
80% 10 Virginia Tech 48 29.9, 22 Boston College 14 16.8
78% 182 Coastal Carolina 20 32.9, 201 Virginia Military 6 21.1
78% 163 Fordham 35 31.7, 206 Bryant 7 17.1
78% 138 Youngstown State 31 26.6, 176 Western Illinois 21 14.6
78% 31 Texas Tech 66 36.6, 63 Kansas State 14 25.3
77% 205 Old Dominion 34 39.2, 226 Presbyterian 16 27.5
77% 113 Wyoming 37 29.3, 141 New Mexico 13 19.0
77% 98 Elon 43 30.7, 124 The Citadel 7 19.5
77% 82 Montana 35 28.4, 110 California Poly 23 17.7
77% 66 Harvard 28 30.6, 135 Cornell 10 19.4
77% 44 Northern Iowa 42 36.5, 109 North Dakota State 27 24.1
77% 3 Oregon 24 30.0, 46 California - Los Angel 10 17.5
76% 198 Sacramento State 38 32.3, 230 Idaho State 17 18.1
76% 149 Buffalo 40 29.9, 183 Gardner - Webb 3 18.0
76% 123 Temple 24 29.6, 147 Ball State 19 20.1
76% 41 Utah 24 30.4, 97 Colorado State 17 19.7
76% 40 South Carolina 28 31.2, 59 Kentucky 26 21.2
76% 28 Miami - Florida 48 42.4, 144 Florida A&M 16 11.5
75% 86 Nevada - Reno 37 30.6, 117 Louisiana Tech 14 21.6
74% 234 Alcorn State 32 26.1, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 15.7
74% 225 Marist 31 26.1, 236 Jacksonville 27 16.9
74% 195 Prairie View 24 21.7, 239 Alabama State 10 12.0
74% 57 Arizona State 27 29.6, 107 Washington State 14 20.8
72% 9 Alabama 22 28.2, 54 Mississippi 3 16.1
71% 166 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 29.9, 174 North Texas 34 22.5
70% 139 South Carolina State 37 27.4, 188 Norfolk State 10 20.2
69% 79 Ohio 19 34.0, 131 Akron 7 27.7
68% 37 Fresno State 42 37.8, 83 Hawaii 17 31.4
67% 140 California - Davis 24 28.9, 192 South Dakota 23 19.9
67% 95 Troy State 31 28.7, 100 Middle Tennessee State 7 23.5
67% 64 Virginia 47 30.2, 70 Indiana 7 22.6
66% 146 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 21.4, 189 Samford 7 15.5
65% 114 Bowling Green 36 27.6, 162 Kent State 35 22.9
65% 39 Pittsburgh 24 22.7, 45 Connecticut 21 17.6
64% 115 Marshall 31 27.7, 155 Tulane 10 23.2
64% 42 Michigan State 24 30.9, 77 Illinois 14 26.7
64% 32 Iowa 30 23.9, 27 Michigan 28 19.0
63% 47 Richmond 21 26.6, 73 James Madison 17 22.8
62% 71 Minnesota 35 32.6, 65 Purdue 20 29.4
62% 49 Washington 36 29.5, 52 Arizona 33 26.2
60% 55 New Hampshire 28 28.6, 48 Villanova 24 26.5
60% 1 Florida 13 26.6, 11 Louisiana State 3 23.8
59% 235 Davidson 16 22.3, 231 Morehead State 10 20.3
58% 30 Texas Christian 20 20.0, 60 Air Force 17 18.6
57% 134 Stephen F. Austin 16 37.0, 126 McNeese State 13 35.9
57% 34 Oklahoma State 36 30.3, 56 Texas A&M 31 28.9
56% 101 Louisville 25 30.1, 93 Southern Mississippi 23 29.1
52% 53 Oregon State 38 23.7, 38 Stanford 28 23.3
52% 24 Tennessee 45 25.9, 17 Georgia 19 25.5
48% 187 Grambling 41 29.2, 172 Alabama A&M 20 29.6
45% 228 Sacred Heart 29 28.5, 214 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 29.7
45% 111 Idaho 29 26.5, 129 San Jose State 25 27.5
42% 223 Austin Peay 24 24.0, 232 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 25.5
40% 133 Northern Arizona 23 28.6, 157 Montana State 10 31.1
40% 108 Brown 34 30.9, 81 Holy Cross 31 33.0
39% 23 Georgia Tech 49 25.0, 35 Florida State 44 27.9
38% 177 Florida International 37 28.4, 181 Western Kentucky 20 32.1
38% 156 Memphis 35 29.0, 121 Texas - El Paso 20 32.7
36% 207 Portland State 23 18.8, 208 Northern Colorado 18 23.5
33% 213 Tennessee Tech 35 25.2, 209 Tennessee - Martin 28 31.3
33% 75 Delaware 43 23.6, 43 Massachusetts 27 29.3
32% 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 11.1, 204 Jackson State 13 20.2
32% 20 Arkansas 44 31.5, 6 Auburn 23 37.8
31% 128 Western Michigan 58 28.7, 106 Toledo 26 35.0
29% 152 Maine 16 15.7, 130 Hofstra 14 23.4
29% 132 Southern Methodist 28 23.5, 74 East Carolina 21 32.8
27% 72 Houston 31 29.6, 61 Mississippi State 24 38.6
27% 16 Nebraska 27 22.4, 8 Missouri 12 31.0
25% 193 North Dakota 31 20.8, 137 Stony Brook 24 29.7
25% 185 New Mexico State 20 24.3, 125 Utah State 17 32.8
23% 199 Towson 36 19.2, 165 Rhode Island 28 32.5
22% 200 Wagner 27 19.7, 168 Monmouth 24 32.6
21% 221 Southeast Louisiana 51 23.8, 186 Texas State - San Marc 50 38.5
19% 161 Weber State 31 21.8, 112 Eastern Washington 13 37.1
18% 170 Army 16 8.9, 92 Vanderbilt 13 22.9
17% 99 Duke 49 21.9, 58 North Carolina State 28 37.4
13% 216 Tennessee State 20 9.5, 153 Eastern Kentucky 17 32.5
11% 224 Bethune - Cookman 9 5.6, 148 Delaware State 7 33.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.10 25 0.92 34 0.97 30 1.00 7 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 80 80.7 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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