prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 206 Bethune - Cookman 34 41.1, 245 Savannah State 24 7.7
92% 199 Morgan State 14 24.5, 233 Howard 7 7.5
92% 197 Prairie View 38 31.4, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 6.5
92% 164 Dayton 17 37.1, 227 Davidson 0 13.9
92% 145 Illinois State 38 42.6, 241 Indiana State 21 8.2
92% 133 McNeese State 51 43.7, 232 Northwestern State 23 11.8
92% 129 Weber State 49 36.7, 191 Sacramento State 10 20.4
92% 128 Louisiana Tech 45 26.1, 179 New Mexico State 7 12.1
92% 115 Albany 20 33.3, 209 Bryant 17 5.5
92% 114 California Poly 24 38.8, 192 Southern Utah 23 16.5
92% 111 Colgate 31 33.5, 228 Georgetown 14 6.7
92% 104 Brown 34 33.8, 188 Princeton 17 12.0
92% 100 Liberty 58 27.5, 174 Coastal Carolina 13 8.2
92% 85 East Carolina 49 44.8, 189 Rice 13 17.0
92% 84 Holy Cross 34 47.1, 181 Dartmouth 14 22.2
92% 69 Houston 44 38.7, 167 Tulane 16 23.0
92% 68 Montana 41 35.2, 130 Eastern Washington 34 17.4
92% 40 Utah 35 38.6, 151 Nevada - Las Vegas 15 16.2
92% 37 Richmond 38 32.6, 140 Maine 21 11.7
92% 36 Michigan 63 37.1, 168 Delaware State 6 4.1
92% 27 Fresno State 41 42.5, 139 San Jose State 21 14.2
92% 26 Texas Christian 44 34.7, 92 Colorado State 6 14.0
92% 20 Brigham Young 38 41.7, 120 San Diego State 28 20.2
92% 17 West Virginia 24 39.8, 101 Marshall 7 13.9
92% 8 Alabama 20 31.9, 42 South Carolina 6 12.7
91% 158 Stony Brook 27 34.5, 212 Virginia Military 20 22.3
91% 86 Ohio 28 34.8, 170 Miami - Ohio 7 12.7
91% 57 Delaware 49 40.7, 180 Towson 21 17.8
91% 24 Penn State 20 33.1, 64 Minnesota 0 16.4
91% 5 Southern California 34 26.2, 35 Notre Dame 27 14.6
90% 119 Temple 27 23.7, 155 Army 13 14.2
90% 39 Michigan State 24 36.5, 98 Northwestern 14 17.9
90% 34 Navy 38 42.3, 118 Southern Methodist 35 28.1
90% 9 Boise State 28 34.5, 49 Tulsa 21 24.0
89% 239 Butler 23 35.1, 244 Valparaiso 14 18.1
89% 172 Eastern Illinois 23 37.2, 216 Tennessee Tech 15 20.8
89% 123 Northern Arizona 44 38.9, 194 Portland State 23 28.0
89% 96 Southern Mississippi 36 31.7, 137 Memphis 16 19.0
89% 60 Air Force 10 29.0, 105 Wyoming 0 14.7
88% 117 Furman 26 32.5, 198 Samford 24 11.7
88% 31 Miami - Florida 27 31.7, 93 Central Florida 7 20.3
87% 173 Eastern Kentucky 31 33.6, 213 Tennessee - Martin 25 17.2
87% 161 Central Connecticut 31 30.8, 214 Duquesne 24 20.3
87% 50 Connecticut 38 33.8, 89 Louisville 25 19.0
87% 1 Florida 23 35.2, 13 Arkansas 20 18.1
86% 90 South Dakota State 28 32.8, 106 North Dakota State 13 24.3
86% 73 Troy State 42 36.4, 169 Florida International 33 19.5
86% 67 Nevada - Reno 35 40.5, 152 Utah State 32 27.9
86% 63 Mississippi 48 33.9, 142 Alabama - Birmingham 13 10.7
86% 29 Georgia 34 28.1, 110 Vanderbilt 10 15.8
85% 131 California - Davis 45 35.5, 225 Winston-Salem 14 6.7
85% 46 Boston College 52 34.1, 87 North Carolina State 20 18.7
84% 166 Grambling 23 34.2, 240 Alabama State 12 13.6
84% 165 Montana State 31 24.9, 190 South Dakota 24 13.5
84% 74 Appalachian State 44 37.3, 153 Wofford 34 26.7
83% 201 Old Dominion 28 35.7, 235 Campbell 17 19.2
79% 207 Gardner - Webb 27 28.3, 217 Charleston Southern 20 20.8
79% 122 South Carolina State 35 32.9, 162 Florida A&M 20 19.7
79% 30 Clemson 38 26.6, 41 Wake Forest 3 19.1
78% 136 Hofstra 28 27.5, 175 Rhode Island 16 21.7
78% 103 Yale 7 22.7, 154 Lehigh 0 15.8
77% 52 Arizona 43 28.5, 53 Stanford 38 23.7
76% 183 Monmouth 42 25.9, 215 Sacred Heart 20 20.8
76% 157 Kent State 28 28.2, 187 Eastern Michigan 6 24.0
76% 32 Pittsburgh 24 24.9, 71 Rutgers 17 19.6
75% 127 Buffalo 21 24.2, 141 Akron 17 18.1
75% 43 Virginia 20 29.2, 70 Maryland 9 23.4
74% 54 Arizona State 24 29.2, 48 Washington 17 24.7
73% 109 Idaho 35 35.2, 107 Hawaii 23 31.4
71% 80 Mississippi State 27 26.1, 121 Middle Tennessee State 6 21.3
70% 147 Florida Atlantic 44 38.0, 184 North Texas 40 32.6
70% 102 Bowling Green 31 35.0, 149 Ball State 17 30.6
70% 58 Central Michigan 34 30.5, 95 Western Michigan 23 25.4
69% 138 Georgia Southern 30 27.8, 143 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 23.4
69% 88 Iowa State 24 28.7, 79 Baylor 10 26.0
67% 221 Robert Morris 28 26.4, 224 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 21.8
67% 159 Louisiana - Lafayette 30 28.7, 185 Western Kentucky 22 25.8
67% 56 Villanova 27 26.6, 81 James Madison 0 24.3
65% 195 Texas State - San Marc 34 39.2, 222 Nicholls State 28 36.0
63% 211 Northern Colorado 30 23.6, 234 Idaho State 7 18.0
57% 2 Texas 16 24.3, 7 Oklahoma 13 23.1
54% 237 Jacksonville 39 22.2, 231 Morehead State 0 21.9
52% 116 Northeast Louisiana 16 30.8, 97 Arkansas State 10 30.6
52% 61 Massachusetts 23 29.6, 47 New Hampshire 17 29.4
52% 25 California 45 20.6, 51 California - Los Angel 26 20.4
45% 124 Pennsylvania 27 18.6, 134 Columbia 13 19.1
43% 23 Oklahoma State 33 29.3, 15 Missouri 17 29.9
40% 126 Stephen F. Austin 33 21.1, 146 Central Arkansas 30 23.8
38% 163 Missouri State 17 20.0, 171 Western Illinois 16 21.7
37% 12 Cincinnati 34 24.0, 21 South Florida 17 25.8
35% 203 Southeast Louisiana 37 32.6, 176 Sam Houston State 21 36.3
35% 112 Indiana 27 25.7, 77 Illinois 14 29.6
31% 94 Kansas State 62 29.4, 59 Texas A&M 14 32.3
30% 33 Iowa 20 22.7, 28 Wisconsin 10 25.8
28% 193 Norfolk State 46 22.3, 160 Hampton 6 27.2
23% 226 Alcorn State 34 21.5, 182 Alabama A&M 16 31.5
23% 150 Fordham 39 26.3, 144 Cornell 27 31.5
21% 65 Colorado 34 23.7, 16 Kansas 30 34.0
19% 22 Georgia Tech 28 26.8, 3 Virginia Tech 23 35.9
18% 11 Texas Tech 31 25.5, 10 Nebraska 10 32.8
15% 72 Southern Illinois 27 21.2, 38 Northern Iowa 20 34.9
12% 91 Lafayette 35 15.7, 62 Harvard 18 26.2
11% 223 Western Carolina 14 19.3, 148 The Citadel 10 35.8
9% 208 Drake 21 21.9, 177 San Diego 14 36.2
9% 135 Toledo 20 27.9, 83 Northern Illinois 19 37.4
9% 55 Kentucky 21 25.8, 18 Auburn 14 40.8
8% 243 Texas Southern 19 6.7, 204 Jackson State 17 32.5
8% 238 Murray State 9 17.1, 205 Tennessee State 6 35.3
8% 76 Purdue 26 11.6, 6 Ohio State 18 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.32 15 0.81 20 1.06 29 0.96 38 0.92 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 85 88.8 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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