prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 231 Marist 24 35.3, 244 Valparaiso 0 10.6
91% 159 Montana State 41 37.5, 222 Idaho State 10 8.8
91% 86 New Hampshire 48 39.4, 178 Northeastern 21 9.2
91% 75 Southern Illinois 33 43.5, 218 Indiana State 0 5.0
91% 70 William & Mary 39 39.8, 172 Rhode Island 14 13.4
91% 35 Utah 22 30.7, 93 Wyoming 10 9.3
91% 23 Iowa 42 38.8, 101 Indiana 24 8.6
91% 20 Arkansas 63 57.2, 170 Eastern Michigan 27 11.0
91% 14 Ohio State 45 46.4, 169 New Mexico State 0 -0.5
91% 9 Texas Christian 41 46.4, 115 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 6.1
91% 4 Boise State 45 50.6, 125 San Jose State 7 5.8
90% 132 McNeese State 38 43.6, 219 Nicholls State 17 20.7
90% 25 Notre Dame 40 39.6, 114 Washington State 14 14.4
90% 7 Cincinnati 28 41.9, 99 Syracuse 7 16.4
89% 126 Harvard 42 35.3, 175 Dartmouth 21 14.3
89% 124 Lafayette 35 43.1, 224 Bucknell 14 5.5
89% 82 San Diego State 23 40.2, 160 New Mexico 20 17.7
89% 73 East Carolina 38 30.7, 129 Memphis 19 20.1
89% 49 Richmond 42 47.7, 200 Towson 14 6.1
89% 16 Penn State 34 34.0, 90 Northwestern 13 11.0
88% 180 Eastern Kentucky 20 31.9, 220 Southeast Missouri Sta 6 13.0
88% 128 South Carolina State 52 31.8, 187 Delaware State 10 10.8
88% 87 Northern Illinois 27 28.0, 133 Akron 10 13.1
88% 1 Texas 41 35.9, 17 Oklahoma State 14 22.2
87% 206 Old Dominion 31 26.0, 233 Georgetown 10 14.8
87% 192 Dayton 21 29.6, 213 San Diego 14 16.4
87% 130 Eastern Washington 47 39.1, 183 Portland State 10 23.7
87% 117 Liberty 55 48.4, 228 Presbyterian 19 7.1
87% 26 Fresno State 31 45.2, 116 Utah State 27 16.7
86% 173 Norfolk State 41 35.4, 237 Howard 6 10.1
85% 83 Elon 34 35.5, 157 Wofford 6 19.7
85% 30 Florida State 45 43.8, 81 North Carolina State 42 25.0
85% 13 Louisiana State 42 51.1, 168 Tulane 0 0.0
84% 166 Grambling 50 44.8, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 9.6
84% 163 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 30.0, 205 Western Carolina 20 13.1
84% 37 Nebraska 20 27.6, 88 Baylor 10 13.6
84% 11 Georgia Tech 56 31.2, 98 Vanderbilt 31 12.4
84% 10 Oklahoma 42 32.8, 59 Kansas State 30 5.9
83% 136 Eastern Illinois 16 41.0, 234 Murray State 10 11.8
83% 46 Houston 50 34.7, 66 Southern Mississippi 43 25.4
82% 148 Colgate 27 30.9, 185 Lehigh 20 16.4
82% 131 North Dakota State 14 33.4, 176 Western Illinois 7 24.5
82% 58 Nevada - Reno 31 45.0, 109 Hawaii 21 29.0
82% 15 Clemson 49 53.7, 191 Coastal Carolina 3 -0.2
80% 122 Jacksonville State 28 34.2, 196 Austin Peay 10 14.4
80% 79 Montana 31 41.7, 123 Weber State 10 27.5
80% 72 South Dakota State 17 26.1, 140 Youngstown State 3 12.6
79% 194 Tennessee Tech 20 24.1, 217 Tennessee State 13 12.1
79% 147 The Citadel 28 24.5, 164 Samford 16 16.2
79% 119 Holy Cross 41 38.1, 165 Fordham 27 28.4
78% 195 Sam Houston State 34 33.4, 221 Northwestern State 30 19.2
78% 76 Central Florida 21 22.8, 94 Marshall 20 15.4
78% 74 Appalachian State 52 43.7, 141 Furman 27 32.4
77% 223 Robert Morris 9 30.1, 239 Sacred Heart 7 17.9
77% 153 North Texas 68 43.7, 186 Western Kentucky 49 30.8
76% 71 Troy State 42 32.4, 97 Northeast Louisiana 21 23.5
76% 12 California 23 29.9, 57 Arizona State 21 22.1
76% 3 Florida 41 35.2, 18 Georgia 17 20.5
75% 155 Yale 23 18.1, 182 Columbia 22 10.6
75% 56 Air Force 34 27.5, 95 Colorado State 16 19.0
75% 32 Oregon State 26 27.9, 55 California - Los Angel 19 19.9
75% 22 Tennessee 31 25.7, 45 South Carolina 13 16.0
74% 40 Missouri 36 26.4, 78 Colorado 17 19.0
73% 203 Drake 45 28.4, 211 Jacksonville 38 21.3
73% 2 Oregon 47 29.0, 5 Southern California 20 22.6
72% 199 Alabama A&M 21 23.9, 229 Alabama State 7 14.7
72% 84 Louisville 21 26.5, 100 Arkansas State 13 20.9
71% 241 Campbell 31 21.2, 243 Morehead State 22 15.9
71% 162 Stony Brook 24 24.7, 193 Gardner - Webb 14 19.7
71% 144 Florida International 20 32.9, 149 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 27.8
71% 103 Ohio 20 28.3, 135 Ball State 17 22.3
69% 43 Wisconsin 37 34.9, 52 Purdue 0 26.4
69% 36 Boston College 31 26.7, 51 Central Michigan 10 17.9
67% 161 Florida A&M 31 29.3, 212 Morgan State 28 19.1
67% 24 Miami - Florida 28 27.6, 63 Wake Forest 27 21.7
65% 207 Monmouth 10 21.9, 209 Bryant 6 17.8
63% 204 Hampton 16 19.5, 227 Winston-Salem 13 15.7
63% 202 Wagner 23 32.3, 235 Duquesne 17 26.6
62% 108 Idaho 35 29.8, 111 Louisiana Tech 34 26.7
62% 50 Texas A&M 35 30.1, 61 Iowa State 10 25.5
62% 29 Texas Tech 42 37.9, 28 Kansas 21 34.6
61% 190 Northern Colorado 21 22.5, 171 South Dakota 17 20.5
60% 143 Southern Utah 56 29.7, 137 California - Davis 35 28.1
60% 31 Auburn 33 24.6, 39 Mississippi 20 20.4
56% 238 Butler 14 21.2, 236 Davidson 7 19.7
50% 118 Kent State 26 22.9, 92 Western Michigan 14 22.9
41% 106 Middle Tennessee State 27 32.2, 105 Florida Atlantic 20 34.2
41% 48 South Florida 30 24.8, 21 West Virginia 19 26.8
39% 151 Miami - Ohio 31 30.2, 120 Toledo 24 32.6
38% 201 Charleston Southern 31 24.5, 198 Virginia Military 21 28.3
36% 174 Central Connecticut 31 23.6, 156 Albany 29 29.1
35% 230 Bethune - Cookman 31 15.6, 225 North Carolina A&T 13 21.2
35% 208 Southern 24 19.2, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 23.3
34% 240 Texas Southern 51 20.3, 216 Alcorn State 21 25.9
34% 214 Princeton 17 18.6, 189 Cornell 13 23.3
33% 139 Pennsylvania 14 17.2, 134 Brown 7 20.6
32% 68 Minnesota 42 24.8, 47 Michigan State 34 28.4
28% 69 Duke 28 17.0, 62 Virginia 17 26.2
27% 145 Maine 19 16.3, 85 Massachusetts 9 26.9
24% 158 Illinois State 24 17.7, 154 Missouri State 14 24.3
24% 54 Mississippi State 31 20.7, 33 Kentucky 24 30.7
23% 167 Texas State - San Marc 28 28.6, 110 Stephen F. Austin 7 42.0
22% 184 Southeast Louisiana 25 23.1, 150 Central Arkansas 21 31.1
21% 181 North Dakota 31 16.2, 121 California Poly 17 30.3
21% 127 James Madison 20 18.8, 80 Delaware 8 32.2
21% 77 Rutgers 28 17.0, 53 Connecticut 24 27.0
17% 67 North Carolina 20 9.6, 6 Virginia Tech 17 37.2
16% 102 Illinois 38 21.2, 42 Michigan 13 31.8
14% 138 Alabama - Birmingham 38 22.5, 104 Texas - El Paso 33 36.2
12% 188 Sacramento State 27 24.6, 113 Northern Arizona 24 41.3
12% 107 Southern Methodist 27 21.4, 65 Tulsa 13 36.1
12% 89 Temple 27 18.3, 38 Navy 24 35.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.70 21 0.89 35 0.98 38 0.98 13 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 85 87.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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