prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 159 Missouri State 31 30.6, 222 Indiana State 7 5.5
91% 81 Temple 34 29.6, 141 Miami - Ohio 32 11.4
90% 97 Massachusetts 37 40.0, 181 Northeastern 7 9.5
90% 85 Northern Illinois 50 38.6, 163 Eastern Michigan 6 13.1
90% 63 Northern Iowa 28 37.7, 139 Youngstown State 7 12.3
90% 42 Air Force 35 32.6, 126 Army 7 1.7
90% 2 Florida 27 43.6, 83 Vanderbilt 3 0.4
90% 1 Texas 35 49.4, 74 Central Florida 3 6.7
89% 171 Prairie View 33 27.9, 200 Alabama A&M 27 15.8
89% 136 Stephen F. Austin 31 46.1, 216 Nicholls State 27 15.7
89% 84 Appalachian State 35 45.4, 165 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 18.6
89% 23 Pittsburgh 37 38.9, 98 Syracuse 10 13.7
89% 8 Cincinnati 47 38.3, 55 Connecticut 45 15.1
88% 217 Jacksonville 49 41.2, 245 Valparaiso 20 12.2
88% 89 Montana 12 48.3, 218 Idaho State 10 12.4
88% 86 William & Mary 31 43.3, 198 Towson 0 5.7
88% 31 Utah 45 42.0, 147 New Mexico 14 4.7
87% 132 McNeese State 63 42.9, 190 Sam Houston State 42 21.1
87% 115 Jacksonville State 24 37.3, 221 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 7.2
87% 101 New Hampshire 55 45.3, 184 Rhode Island 42 14.2
87% 82 Elon 42 37.2, 196 Western Carolina 17 6.4
87% 38 Mississippi 38 42.2, 124 Northern Arizona 14 11.6
86% 204 Old Dominion 42 34.0, 231 North Carolina Central 28 20.6
86% 168 Florida A&M 31 37.5, 227 North Carolina A&T 27 11.7
86% 143 Pennsylvania 42 26.7, 211 Princeton 7 -0.5
86% 95 Southern Methodist 31 47.8, 174 Rice 28 21.2
86% 33 Arizona 48 41.4, 110 Washington State 7 16.1
86% 25 Miami - Florida 52 31.5, 59 Virginia 17 15.4
86% 16 Tennessee 56 45.9, 125 Memphis 28 7.6
85% 119 South Carolina State 43 42.0, 239 Howard 13 6.3
85% 106 Delaware 28 31.7, 145 Hofstra 24 16.6
85% 41 Kentucky 37 44.6, 169 Eastern Kentucky 12 3.5
85% 22 Auburn 63 51.9, 146 Furman 31 11.9
85% 17 Georgia Tech 30 36.6, 56 Wake Forest 27 20.2
85% 6 Texas Christian 55 40.3, 99 San Diego State 12 12.1
84% 175 Fordham 21 38.3, 224 Bucknell 7 18.9
84% 151 Illinois State 25 33.1, 176 Western Illinois 7 19.5
84% 118 Liberty 54 45.8, 207 Virginia Military 14 14.5
84% 50 Michigan State 49 39.2, 107 Western Michigan 14 18.5
84% 49 North Carolina 19 25.7, 70 Duke 6 16.8
84% 26 Georgia 38 54.9, 191 Tennessee Tech 0 0.2
84% 5 Boise State 45 40.3, 105 Louisiana Tech 35 11.4
83% 206 Drake 49 37.5, 241 Campbell 6 17.2
83% 187 Coastal Carolina 26 23.6, 195 Gardner - Webb 21 16.1
83% 111 James Madison 22 23.2, 138 Maine 14 10.7
83% 69 Troy State 40 48.8, 179 Western Kentucky 20 21.0
83% 28 West Virginia 17 39.9, 78 Louisville 9 19.8
83% 20 Oklahoma State 34 30.3, 72 Iowa State 8 17.9
82% 209 Jackson State 19 20.7, 234 Alabama State 7 7.6
82% 92 Middle Tennessee State 48 35.1, 140 Florida International 21 17.8
82% 7 Southern California 14 28.8, 48 Arizona State 9 16.0
81% 153 Montana State 28 29.6, 189 Portland State 10 21.0
81% 133 Lafayette 56 29.5, 155 Colgate 49 20.3
81% 35 Brigham Young 52 31.3, 87 Wyoming 0 18.8
81% 24 Arkansas 33 33.1, 43 South Carolina 16 22.5
80% 173 Norfolk State 31 24.9, 208 Morgan State 23 17.1
80% 135 Harvard 34 29.7, 188 Columbia 14 16.6
80% 66 Nevada - Reno 62 38.4, 123 San Jose State 7 25.1
79% 205 Monmouth 24 27.1, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 18.2
79% 127 Holy Cross 24 31.8, 183 Lehigh 20 21.3
79% 45 California - Los Angel 24 26.1, 47 Washington 23 21.1
79% 34 Wisconsin 31 38.3, 102 Indiana 28 22.6
79% 13 Clemson 40 36.8, 44 Florida State 24 22.5
79% 11 Virginia Tech 16 34.8, 68 East Carolina 3 16.9
78% 4 Alabama 24 21.9, 10 Louisiana State 15 15.9
77% 40 Fresno State 31 41.6, 104 Idaho 21 26.7
76% 223 Texas Southern 30 30.3, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 18.8
73% 232 Marist 23 18.5, 237 Georgetown 21 12.7
73% 76 North Carolina State 38 38.5, 93 Maryland 31 29.4
71% 201 Charleston Southern 46 31.5, 229 Presbyterian 32 25.2
71% 100 Northeast Louisiana 33 41.6, 150 North Texas 6 30.6
70% 194 Delaware State 24 20.1, 230 Winston-Salem 21 11.7
67% 177 Southeast Louisiana 27 38.3, 215 Northwestern State 0 30.1
66% 192 Dartmouth 20 28.9, 193 Cornell 17 25.6
65% 108 Hawaii 49 34.5, 109 Utah State 36 29.5
61% 90 Bowling Green 30 28.8, 112 Buffalo 29 26.3
60% 46 Houston 46 34.9, 64 Tulsa 45 31.9
51% 122 Alabama - Birmingham 56 33.8, 113 Florida Atlantic 29 33.5
46% 219 Bethune - Cookman 27 21.0, 203 Hampton 24 21.5
46% 154 California - Davis 23 27.0, 134 California Poly 10 27.6
42% 12 Ohio State 24 17.5, 15 Penn State 7 18.8
40% 202 Tennessee - Martin 28 23.0, 214 Tennessee State 7 24.2
40% 129 Akron 28 20.3, 114 Kent State 20 21.3
40% 60 Kansas State 17 30.4, 37 Kansas 10 32.9
38% 210 Wagner 32 29.9, 178 Central Connecticut 27 35.0
37% 170 Samford 31 19.1, 144 Georgia Southern 10 23.0
37% 21 Nebraska 10 17.7, 9 Oklahoma 3 21.2
33% 117 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 28.2, 88 Colorado State 16 31.7
33% 75 Colorado 35 27.6, 52 Texas A&M 34 32.0
32% 160 Texas State - San Marc 27 22.5, 158 Central Arkansas 24 27.5
30% 62 Villanova 21 24.8, 57 Richmond 20 31.0
29% 157 Wofford 43 26.6, 149 The Citadel 17 32.6
28% 152 Brown 35 18.7, 156 Yale 21 22.7
27% 225 Murray State 27 22.2, 197 Austin Peay 17 27.7
27% 182 Sacramento State 38 19.3, 180 Northern Colorado 35 22.8
27% 164 Tulane 45 24.7, 116 Texas - El Paso 38 34.3
27% 79 Southern Illinois 34 19.2, 77 South Dakota State 15 23.8
26% 185 South Dakota 45 26.3, 137 Southern Utah 21 37.1
24% 240 Sacred Heart 24 16.2, 213 Bryant 14 25.1
24% 67 Purdue 38 25.5, 54 Michigan 36 35.3
22% 53 Navy 23 24.1, 30 Notre Dame 21 34.7
21% 71 Illinois 35 20.2, 61 Minnesota 32 27.3
21% 36 Oregon State 31 25.1, 14 California 14 35.8
20% 39 Stanford 51 20.3, 3 Oregon 42 38.1
19% 220 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 49 12.6, 166 Grambling 42 31.4
15% 80 Baylor 40 14.2, 27 Missouri 32 35.0
13% 238 Butler 31 9.1, 186 Dayton 28 34.0
13% 235 Davidson 34 15.3, 212 San Diego 27 28.2
13% 142 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 15.5, 96 Arkansas State 18 31.9
13% 103 Northwestern 17 8.8, 19 Iowa 10 35.7
12% 228 Robert Morris 13 7.5, 162 Albany 10 35.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.25 12 0.77 28 0.71 60 1.01 4 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 78 87.8 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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