prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 200 Alabama A&M 17 37.3, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 7.4
91% 169 Norfolk State 28 31.6, 233 Winston-Salem 21 7.5
91% 110 Jacksonville State 34 33.4, 175 Eastern Kentucky 26 9.3
91% 78 Appalachian State 19 48.2, 189 Western Carolina 14 10.9
91% 25 Tennessee 31 35.3, 85 Vanderbilt 16 11.8
91% 11 Clemson 34 32.8, 64 Virginia 21 10.1
90% 170 Prairie View 49 26.3, 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 10.8
90% 106 James Madison 43 36.4, 202 Towson 12 3.9
90% 15 Oklahoma State 31 36.4, 82 Colorado 28 12.2
90% 4 Texas Christian 45 39.6, 104 Wyoming 10 6.7
90% 1 Texas 51 48.1, 49 Kansas 20 14.6
89% 130 Pennsylvania 34 30.2, 203 Cornell 0 4.0
89% 126 McNeese State 21 32.7, 164 Central Arkansas 17 18.5
89% 119 South Carolina State 28 42.4, 224 North Carolina A&T 10 5.9
89% 77 Temple 47 29.3, 116 Kent State 13 16.4
89% 35 Iowa 12 30.1, 63 Minnesota 0 16.5
88% 192 Dayton 27 28.3, 226 Marist 16 11.2
88% 127 Stephen F. Austin 19 40.6, 229 Northwestern State 10 14.0
88% 66 Central Florida 49 38.4, 161 Tulane 0 8.5
88% 48 Nevada - Reno 63 42.2, 162 New Mexico State 20 11.6
88% 17 Nebraska 17 31.2, 67 Kansas State 3 10.1
88% 2 Florida 62 57.7, 143 Florida International 3 -0.4
87% 99 New Hampshire 27 33.3, 139 Maine 24 17.2
87% 45 South Florida 34 29.3, 74 Louisville 22 14.0
87% 32 Missouri 34 31.9, 72 Iowa State 24 13.4
86% 39 Utah 38 40.6, 105 San Diego State 7 16.8
86% 21 Oregon State 42 41.4, 121 Washington State 10 15.3
86% 19 Miami - Florida 34 42.4, 81 Duke 16 17.3
86% 9 Virginia Tech 38 46.1, 76 North Carolina State 10 15.0
86% 3 Alabama 45 48.9, 157 Tennessee - Chattanoog 0 -2.0
85% 227 North Carolina Central 35 41.6, 244 Savannah State 14 16.6
85% 197 Delaware State 30 30.3, 240 Howard 20 11.2
85% 181 Fordham 41 30.9, 235 Georgetown 14 16.1
85% 87 Bowling Green 36 36.7, 138 Akron 20 17.5
85% 68 Southern Illinois 42 44.7, 210 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 6.1
85% 53 Fresno State 30 34.9, 86 Louisiana Tech 28 20.2
84% 90 South Dakota State 27 29.0, 178 Western Illinois 7 7.3
84% 59 Villanova 30 37.5, 111 Delaware 12 18.2
84% 51 Houston 55 50.6, 123 Memphis 14 23.9
84% 40 Florida State 29 45.1, 96 Maryland 26 22.7
84% 7 Boise State 52 50.1, 113 Utah State 21 17.9
83% 183 Central Connecticut 14 34.7, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 17.7
83% 124 Weber State 47 31.2, 158 California Poly 14 20.2
83% 122 Toledo 47 46.1, 168 Eastern Michigan 21 28.0
83% 57 Central Michigan 35 34.1, 131 Ball State 3 15.1
83% 56 East Carolina 37 35.5, 108 Alabama - Birmingham 21 17.0
82% 107 Hawaii 17 32.6, 153 San Jose State 10 22.8
81% 91 Elon 27 22.8, 149 Samford 7 10.3
81% 89 Middle Tennessee State 38 27.6, 114 Arkansas State 14 17.0
81% 88 Marshall 34 27.6, 93 Southern Methodist 31 20.7
81% 79 Troy State 47 44.0, 117 Florida Atlantic 21 28.1
80% 208 Jacksonville 34 33.6, 241 Campbell 14 19.7
80% 190 Tennessee Tech 45 35.8, 230 Murray State 14 17.0
80% 103 Montana 33 25.7, 140 Montana State 19 18.7
80% 38 California - Los Angel 23 21.8, 47 Arizona State 13 15.7
80% 16 Arkansas 42 37.4, 52 Mississippi State 21 25.4
80% 10 Ohio State 21 33.7, 62 Michigan 10 18.8
79% 155 Southern Utah 37 38.6, 221 San Diego 32 22.1
78% 242 Morehead State 29 24.0, 245 Valparaiso 6 15.4
78% 177 Florida A&M 42 30.2, 217 Bethune - Cookman 6 18.6
78% 65 Richmond 13 30.7, 83 William & Mary 10 21.8
76% 154 Texas State - San Marc 28 44.2, 187 Sam Houston State 20 29.5
76% 151 Georgia Southern 13 32.9, 160 The Citadel 6 25.2
76% 5 Oregon 44 35.1, 29 Arizona 41 25.2
75% 167 Albany 41 34.0, 216 Wagner 28 23.1
74% 31 Brigham Young 38 28.7, 37 Air Force 21 21.3
73% 194 Gardner - Webb 21 34.7, 231 Presbyterian 14 25.8
73% 137 Furman 58 37.0, 146 Wofford 21 29.0
72% 70 Southern Mississippi 44 32.8, 75 Tulsa 34 26.2
69% 136 Harvard 14 20.6, 165 Yale 10 16.8
69% 60 Texas A&M 38 36.7, 71 Baylor 3 29.1
67% 115 Buffalo 42 26.3, 141 Miami - Ohio 17 23.3
63% 69 Purdue 38 34.6, 95 Indiana 21 30.4
62% 204 Tennessee - Martin 48 30.5, 207 Austin Peay 38 27.3
59% 193 Charleston Southern 30 26.2, 188 Coastal Carolina 23 24.6
59% 26 Penn State 42 25.5, 43 Michigan State 14 24.5
57% 134 Army 17 29.9, 152 North Texas 13 28.4
56% 220 Bryant 20 20.7, 234 Duquesne 0 20.1
52% 92 Ohio 38 22.1, 80 Northern Illinois 31 22.0
50% 23 Mississippi 25 20.4, 13 Louisiana State 23 20.4
49% 118 Eastern Washington 49 31.7, 132 Northern Arizona 45 32.0
41% 205 Old Dominion 42 28.4, 206 Virginia Military 35 30.0
41% 180 Northeastern 33 30.4, 186 Rhode Island 27 32.0
35% 22 Texas Tech 41 25.0, 6 Oklahoma 13 29.8
33% 24 California 34 28.0, 18 Stanford 28 32.6
29% 135 Youngstown State 39 23.1, 128 North Dakota State 35 29.0
27% 166 Rice 30 31.8, 120 Texas - El Paso 29 41.6
27% 44 Kentucky 34 24.6, 28 Georgia 27 34.9
26% 182 Sacramento State 31 26.3, 147 California - Davis 28 33.5
24% 133 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 21.1, 97 Northeast Louisiana 17 28.5
22% 238 Butler 20 18.9, 198 Drake 17 30.3
22% 185 Columbia 28 19.6, 145 Brown 14 29.1
21% 148 Hofstra 52 14.1, 102 Massachusetts 38 22.9
21% 144 New Mexico 29 22.7, 94 Colorado State 27 32.0
21% 50 Connecticut 33 22.8, 36 Notre Dame 30 30.7
20% 214 Nicholls State 45 22.6, 174 Southeast Louisiana 30 38.7
20% 172 Stony Brook 36 19.5, 109 Liberty 33 34.4
20% 100 Syracuse 31 18.7, 58 Rutgers 13 27.3
19% 228 Alcorn State 14 18.3, 215 Jackson State 7 27.8
19% 179 Lehigh 27 19.4, 129 Lafayette 21 28.6
19% 150 Illinois State 22 16.6, 61 Northern Iowa 20 36.4
18% 84 Northwestern 33 19.9, 34 Wisconsin 31 32.6
16% 213 Princeton 23 17.7, 191 Dartmouth 11 27.0
15% 222 Bucknell 23 14.4, 125 Holy Cross 17 39.3
14% 212 Morgan State 16 14.7, 196 Hampton 13 24.9
14% 41 North Carolina 31 13.1, 30 Boston College 13 22.6
13% 218 Robert Morris 23 12.2, 201 Monmouth 9 22.1
12% 223 Tennessee State 21 3.6, 142 Eastern Illinois 10 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.00 7 1.08 25 0.68 59 0.96 8 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 79 86.0 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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