prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 3 Texas Christian 51 53.5, 139 New Mexico 10 1.9
90% 8 Cincinnati 49 41.8, 73 Illinois 36 12.3
90% 2 Florida 37 45.6, 42 Florida State 10 16.4
89% 94 Southern Methodist 26 40.5, 164 Tulane 21 17.3
87% 81 Tulsa 33 37.8, 126 Memphis 30 20.9
87% 58 Washington 30 41.4, 125 Washington State 0 17.3
87% 9 Oklahoma 27 29.8, 22 Oklahoma State 0 15.6
86% 138 Akron 28 35.7, 172 Eastern Michigan 21 20.7
86% 19 Southern California 28 26.5, 35 California - Los Angel 7 14.6
86% 17 Nebraska 28 27.4, 76 Colorado 20 11.8
85% 47 Connecticut 56 35.7, 89 Syracuse 31 19.4
85% 46 Houston 73 59.6, 160 Rice 14 21.6
85% 12 Texas Tech 20 40.7, 79 Baylor 13 18.7
85% 7 Virginia Tech 42 29.5, 61 Virginia 13 13.1
84% 1 Texas 49 47.1, 54 Texas A&M 39 22.8
83% 52 Central Michigan 45 30.0, 88 Northern Illinois 31 17.2
82% 36 Boston College 19 32.6, 95 Maryland 17 20.1
82% 6 Boise State 44 49.5, 45 Nevada - Reno 33 27.7
81% 71 Troy State 48 33.9, 127 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 21.3
80% 4 Alabama 26 29.9, 28 Auburn 21 21.8
79% 118 Florida Atlantic 29 50.8, 182 Western Kentucky 23 29.4
78% 115 Arkansas State 30 37.4, 151 North Texas 26 23.4
78% 27 Brigham Young 26 31.5, 37 Utah 23 23.2
77% 152 San Jose State 13 23.6, 168 New Mexico State 10 16.5
77% 85 Bowling Green 38 44.0, 119 Toledo 24 27.9
77% 60 Central Florida 34 30.3, 106 Alabama - Birmingham 27 20.6
77% 55 Wake Forest 45 28.1, 77 Duke 34 22.5
77% 24 Stanford 45 34.0, 40 Notre Dame 38 25.0
72% 53 East Carolina 25 32.0, 68 Southern Mississippi 20 24.3
70% 96 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 33.2, 108 San Diego State 24 27.8
67% 30 Missouri 41 32.6, 49 Kansas 39 27.0
67% 15 Louisiana State 33 31.7, 14 Arkansas 30 27.0
65% 173 Grambling 31 40.3, 197 Southern 13 32.3
65% 104 Buffalo 9 25.8, 120 Kent State 6 22.8
63% 18 Miami - Florida 31 28.5, 48 South Florida 10 24.6
62% 86 Middle Tennessee State 38 24.8, 102 Northeast Louisiana 19 22.6
62% 29 Arizona 20 25.8, 50 Arizona State 17 23.9
59% 26 Tennessee 30 30.5, 39 Kentucky 24 29.2
56% 218 Texas Southern 14 26.6, 221 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 25.9
54% 31 West Virginia 19 26.6, 20 Pittsburgh 16 26.1
38% 63 Rutgers 34 20.5, 74 Louisville 14 22.5
36% 93 Ohio 35 24.4, 69 Temple 17 27.6
30% 112 Utah State 52 31.3, 97 Idaho 49 37.4
27% 121 Texas - El Paso 52 23.1, 90 Marshall 21 30.5
27% 103 Wyoming 17 21.8, 98 Colorado State 16 26.6
22% 107 Hawaii 24 22.1, 43 Navy 17 36.5
21% 75 North Carolina State 28 21.1, 33 North Carolina 27 30.6
21% 32 Georgia 30 26.4, 11 Georgia Tech 24 38.5
19% 171 North Dakota 17 16.4, 162 Central Arkansas 16 23.5
19% 56 Mississippi State 41 19.7, 23 Mississippi 27 27.7
17% 136 Ball State 22 18.9, 113 Western Michigan 17 30.0
17% 44 South Carolina 34 16.9, 13 Clemson 17 23.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.77 10 1.08 16 0.90 21 0.96 2 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 52 40 40.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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