prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 27 Auburn 38 38.0, 79 Northwestern 35 20.8
83% 14 Arkansas 20 37.7, 53 East Carolina 17 24.8
79% 45 California - Los Angel 30 28.0, 70 Temple 21 18.7
79% 7 Virginia Tech 37 31.1, 26 Tennessee 14 21.5
78% 57 South Florida 27 27.7, 88 Northern Illinois 3 18.9
78% 15 Texas Tech 41 38.7, 56 Michigan State 31 26.4
77% 49 Central Michigan 44 32.8, 71 Troy State 41 24.9
77% 20 Southern California 24 24.3, 38 Boston College 13 17.7
77% 19 Clemson 21 31.1, 43 Kentucky 13 24.1
77% 6 Oklahoma 31 31.2, 18 Stanford 27 23.5
77% 2 Florida 51 35.7, 9 Cincinnati 24 26.6
76% 54 Villanova 23 33.0, 80 Montana 21 24.2
76% 22 Pittsburgh 19 23.4, 34 North Carolina 17 19.1
66% 29 Georgia 44 37.7, 55 Texas A&M 20 30.5
66% 16 Nebraska 33 22.1, 25 Arizona 0 19.8
51% 23 Mississippi 21 23.8, 24 Oklahoma State 7 23.7
45% 39 Air Force 47 32.9, 37 Houston 20 34.0
41% 61 Rutgers 45 20.7, 60 Central Florida 24 21.7
40% 44 Connecticut 20 25.0, 35 South Carolina 7 26.6
40% 28 Brigham Young 44 29.4, 21 Oregon State 20 31.5
39% 78 Middle Tennessee State 42 27.2, 68 Southern Mississippi 32 29.7
38% 46 Florida State 33 28.5, 32 West Virginia 21 31.5
37% 99 Idaho 43 32.0, 86 Bowling Green 42 36.3
37% 17 Penn State 19 16.9, 13 Louisiana State 17 19.2
37% 8 Boise State 17 30.0, 4 Texas Christian 10 34.3
35% 42 Utah 37 24.0, 31 California 27 26.6
35% 3 Alabama 37 24.7, 1 Texas 21 27.8
34% 10 Ohio State 26 25.7, 5 Oregon 17 30.6
28% 51 Navy 35 24.1, 30 Missouri 13 30.5
28% 36 Wisconsin 20 26.2, 12 Miami - Florida 14 34.2
27% 74 Iowa State 14 20.2, 62 Minnesota 13 24.4
23% 95 Marshall 21 20.0, 85 Ohio 17 23.9
22% 33 Iowa 24 21.8, 11 Georgia Tech 14 29.9
17% 93 Southern Methodist 45 26.8, 40 Nevada - Reno 10 43.8
12% 101 Wyoming 35 20.1, 59 Fresno State 28 33.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 12 0.26 16 0.90 4 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 35 16 24.9 0.64
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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