prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 85 Utah State 38 54.0, 207 Idaho State 17 13.4
90% 29 Clemson 58 64.2, 225 Presbyterian 21 0.0
90% 24 Cincinnati 40 63.4, 233 Indiana State 7 0.0
90% 3 Texas Christian 62 58.8, 174 Tennessee Tech 7 0.0
89% 118 South Carolina State 44 54.6, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 0.0
89% 82 Middle Tennessee State 56 47.4, 206 Austin Peay 33 5.6
89% 77 William & Mary 45 46.7, 203 Virginia Military 0 2.8
89% 74 Maryland 62 44.9, 204 Morgan State 3 0.7
89% 43 Kentucky 63 54.4, 172 Western Kentucky 28 13.8
89% 40 Missouri 50 46.5, 168 McNeese State 6 5.3
89% 37 Houston 54 56.0, 123 Texas - El Paso 24 25.8
89% 26 Wisconsin 27 49.2, 147 San Jose State 14 7.9
89% 20 Arizona 52 48.6, 156 The Citadel 6 3.7
88% 59 Connecticut 62 49.1, 208 Texas Southern 3 0.1
87% 97 Appalachian State 45 53.3, 182 Jacksonville 14 20.7
87% 67 Northwestern 37 42.3, 150 Illinois State 3 13.1
87% 16 Texas Tech 52 51.3, 166 New Mexico 17 11.6
87% 8 Texas 34 40.6, 110 Wyoming 7 1.7
86% 121 Western Michigan 49 46.5, 230 Nicholls State 14 8.1
86% 70 Purdue 31 42.0, 186 Western Illinois 21 2.1
86% 62 Arizona State 41 42.3, 126 Northern Arizona 20 16.8
86% 52 East Carolina 49 46.1, 136 Memphis 27 17.2
86% 42 Mississippi 27 44.6, 165 Tulane 13 12.5
86% 27 Utah 38 43.5, 103 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 16.9
85% 138 Southern Utah 32 45.1, 222 San Diego 3 16.3
85% 93 Louisville 23 37.3, 187 Eastern Kentucky 13 2.9
85% 75 Jacksonville State 21 51.9, 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 27.1
85% 63 Kansas State 48 38.4, 143 Missouri State 24 8.3
85% 46 Boston College 26 35.6, 125 Kent State 13 6.9
85% 18 Arkansas 31 41.4, 106 Northeast Louisiana 7 15.4
84% 57 Navy 13 36.9, 154 Georgia Southern 7 4.7
84% 47 Nevada - Reno 51 41.5, 116 Colorado State 6 17.3
84% 15 Oklahoma State 41 44.1, 76 Troy State 38 22.7
83% 112 Weber State 50 36.2, 179 Northern Colorado 47 11.8
83% 87 Southern Mississippi 34 42.0, 173 Prairie View 7 12.9
83% 51 Villanova 35 36.8, 171 Lehigh 0 7.0
83% 49 Michigan State 30 43.8, 107 Florida Atlantic 17 27.2
82% 131 Youngstown State 31 40.6, 221 Butler 7 8.9
82% 98 Massachusetts 31 41.4, 148 Holy Cross 7 19.9
82% 60 Southern Methodist 28 41.0, 114 Alabama - Birmingham 7 21.5
81% 120 Miami - Ohio 28 43.8, 178 Eastern Michigan 21 21.9
81% 95 Northern Illinois 23 35.7, 180 North Dakota 17 5.7
81% 23 Pittsburgh 38 39.9, 96 New Hampshire 16 15.5
81% 19 Nebraska 38 37.0, 79 Idaho 17 14.3
79% 210 Old Dominion 44 37.4, 241 Campbell 13 19.1
79% 9 Louisiana State 27 32.3, 92 Vanderbilt 3 11.5
79% 5 Florida 38 35.2, 41 South Florida 14 12.9
79% 1 Alabama 24 31.2, 21 Penn State 3 11.8
78% 61 Rutgers 19 34.3, 132 Florida International 14 15.7
78% 45 Texas A&M 48 36.3, 94 Louisiana Tech 16 18.9
77% 169 Norfolk State 23 32.0, 218 North Carolina A&T 14 11.6
76% 124 Furman 45 45.1, 162 Colgate 15 29.9
76% 31 California 52 34.3, 72 Colorado 7 17.5
74% 78 Northern Iowa 16 34.1, 117 North Dakota State 9 18.0
71% 102 San Diego State 41 28.1, 161 New Mexico State 21 13.2
71% 32 Iowa 35 25.5, 64 Iowa State 7 11.3
70% 151 Samford 19 34.3, 219 Northwestern State 7 16.6
68% 159 Florida A&M 17 33.8, 215 Delaware State 14 19.9
68% 44 Washington 41 29.5, 71 Syracuse 20 17.4
68% 35 Southern California 17 31.0, 50 Virginia 7 20.5
68% 2 Oregon 48 39.5, 30 Tennessee 13 27.0
67% 7 Ohio State 36 29.7, 11 Miami - Florida 24 18.7
66% 192 Hampton 31 25.5, 239 Howard 21 11.2
63% 157 Wofford 34 34.8, 188 Charleston Southern 23 29.1
63% 146 Maine 31 21.8, 196 Monmouth 23 10.6
63% 86 Tulsa 33 39.8, 91 Bowling Green 20 34.5
63% 55 Temple 13 31.5, 65 Central Michigan 10 25.2
63% 54 West Virginia 24 24.6, 100 Marshall 21 16.4
62% 111 Liberty 27 31.2, 140 Ball State 23 24.8
61% 198 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 26.8, 227 Murray State 17 21.2
61% 185 Southeast Louisiana 24 35.0, 194 Tennessee - Martin 10 28.7
61% 144 Stephen F. Austin 59 24.1, 141 Albany 14 20.6
61% 109 Hawaii 31 29.8, 129 Army 28 25.1
61% 108 Delaware 26 29.1, 105 South Dakota State 3 25.8
61% 89 Baylor 34 21.3, 101 Buffalo 6 14.7
61% 83 Illinois 35 28.8, 84 Southern Illinois 3 24.5
61% 73 Wake Forest 54 33.1, 68 Duke 48 30.4
61% 34 Stanford 35 30.4, 58 California - Los Angel 0 26.8
61% 13 Oklahoma 47 33.0, 14 Florida State 17 27.1
55% 195 Fordham 27 34.3, 184 Rhode Island 25 33.2
53% 209 Robert Morris 35 24.6, 224 Sacred Heart 31 24.1
51% 234 Marist 14 17.8, 223 Bucknell 3 17.6
51% 25 South Carolina 17 26.1, 12 Georgia 6 26.0
45% 152 Washington State 23 25.2, 134 Montana State 22 26.2
43% 240 Morehead State 31 21.0, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 22.8
39% 237 Alabama State 38 15.8, 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 31 18.7
39% 226 Jackson State 33 8.8, 201 Tennessee State 26 16.0
39% 199 Towson 47 23.6, 181 Coastal Carolina 45 26.3
39% 137 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 25.0, 115 Arkansas State 24 29.6
39% 128 Rice 32 34.2, 127 North Texas 31 37.8
39% 48 Air Force 35 26.5, 17 Brigham Young 14 31.3
39% 28 Auburn 17 33.9, 36 Mississippi State 14 36.2
37% 231 Duquesne 35 20.2, 189 Dayton 31 28.1
37% 69 North Carolina State 28 27.0, 66 Central Florida 21 32.9
36% 160 Central Arkansas 37 15.6, 142 Eastern Illinois 7 25.1
36% 53 Michigan 28 22.4, 38 Notre Dame 24 30.9
31% 197 Portland State 41 23.4, 163 California - Davis 33 38.0
26% 190 Gardner - Webb 38 12.0, 145 Akron 37 29.9
25% 133 Toledo 20 16.8, 90 Ohio 13 34.9
25% 88 Kansas 28 15.4, 10 Georgia Tech 25 34.2
20% 158 California Poly 35 19.5, 81 Montana 33 39.4
13% 232 Georgetown 28 6.2, 130 Lafayette 24 40.8
13% 153 South Dakota 41 10.7, 56 Minnesota 38 44.7
13% 113 James Madison 21 3.3, 6 Virginia Tech 16 45.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.25 34 1.03 16 1.07 48 1.07 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 83 77.9 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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