prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 222 Bethune - Cookman 42 37.3, 243 Savannah State 7 11.5
90% 130 Central Arkansas 21 41.1, 236 Murray State 20 4.5
90% 116 North Dakota State 35 39.1, 220 Morgan State 9 2.7
90% 89 Appalachian State 44 57.9, 232 North Carolina Central 16 10.9
90% 86 Jacksonville State 34 65.9, 235 Georgia State 27 25.1
90% 85 Delaware 30 50.6, 223 Duquesne 6 5.6
90% 60 Central Michigan 52 42.1, 179 Eastern Michigan 14 10.9
90% 58 Southern Methodist 35 44.9, 148 Washington State 21 15.1
90% 47 Villanova 43 55.8, 197 Towson 7 5.7
90% 31 Texas A&M 27 51.1, 125 Florida International 20 18.3
90% 23 Oklahoma State 65 47.9, 78 Tulsa 28 25.9
90% 20 Penn State 24 38.3, 115 Kent State 0 4.6
90% 7 Ohio State 43 39.5, 105 Ohio 7 0.0
90% 5 Texas Christian 45 39.9, 67 Baylor 10 10.8
90% 4 Boise State 51 46.8, 92 Wyoming 6 16.9
90% 1 Oregon 69 75.3, 184 Portland State 0 3.1
89% 198 Dayton 34 34.9, 238 Morehead State 28 15.4
89% 71 William & Mary 21 43.4, 200 Old Dominion 17 7.2
89% 49 Kentucky 47 46.7, 157 Akron 10 9.3
89% 28 Utah 56 46.0, 154 New Mexico 14 11.4
88% 79 Syracuse 38 30.5, 150 Maine 14 6.5
88% 43 Michigan 42 37.8, 91 Massachusetts 37 18.4
88% 27 Oregon State 35 37.9, 101 Louisville 28 10.2
87% 82 Purdue 24 35.2, 144 Ball State 13 13.4
87% 63 Northwestern 30 40.8, 133 Rice 13 23.5
87% 61 Illinois 28 30.8, 100 Northern Illinois 22 16.0
87% 37 Missouri 27 40.9, 98 San Diego State 24 17.1
87% 18 South Carolina 38 41.7, 112 Furman 19 9.2
86% 161 Florida A&M 50 37.1, 239 Howard 7 13.4
86% 2 Alabama 62 46.0, 73 Duke 13 16.4
85% 158 The Citadel 26 47.3, 217 Presbyterian 14 26.7
84% 159 Grambling 28 34.5, 219 Jackson State 21 13.1
84% 9 Stanford 68 47.2, 66 Wake Forest 24 24.3
83% 84 Richmond 27 28.3, 97 Elon 21 20.5
83% 32 Fresno State 41 43.1, 99 Utah State 24 26.6
82% 215 Texas Southern 32 29.4, 227 Alabama A&M 9 22.0
82% 118 Texas - El Paso 42 34.5, 163 New Mexico State 10 16.5
82% 46 West Virginia 31 32.4, 69 Maryland 17 21.9
81% 102 Indiana 38 48.4, 166 Western Kentucky 21 32.6
80% 141 Montana State 48 33.7, 213 Drake 21 7.1
80% 140 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 33.8, 183 Eastern Kentucky 24 18.1
80% 3 Florida 31 33.5, 44 Tennessee 17 17.2
79% 231 Alcorn State 27 33.1, 241 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 18.0
78% 173 Yale 40 25.9, 207 Georgetown 35 10.9
78% 169 Lehigh 35 27.5, 210 Princeton 22 9.9
78% 139 Georgia Southern 43 32.4, 191 Coastal Carolina 26 20.5
77% 142 Youngstown State 63 30.4, 180 Central Connecticut 24 15.3
77% 24 Auburn 27 35.8, 42 Clemson 24 25.0
74% 149 Brown 33 34.0, 170 Stony Brook 30 23.7
73% 122 Pennsylvania 19 29.4, 160 Lafayette 14 12.0
73% 70 Central Florida 24 22.2, 111 Buffalo 10 12.5
73% 10 Louisiana State 29 27.6, 38 Mississippi State 7 13.3
71% 137 Harvard 34 29.4, 151 Holy Cross 6 19.8
71% 39 Wisconsin 20 29.7, 57 Arizona State 19 19.0
71% 22 Virginia Tech 49 37.1, 54 East Carolina 27 21.9
69% 167 Northern Colorado 35 37.1, 202 Idaho State 21 22.7
69% 94 Colorado 31 34.8, 106 Hawaii 13 27.8
68% 65 Navy 37 19.7, 96 Louisiana Tech 23 13.9
68% 6 Oklahoma 27 35.6, 19 Air Force 24 20.3
67% 178 Western Illinois 56 32.8, 195 Sam Houston State 14 22.5
66% 76 Idaho 30 40.8, 108 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 28.5
66% 29 Southern California 32 29.0, 80 Minnesota 21 17.6
64% 138 San Jose State 16 33.2, 145 Southern Utah 11 27.5
64% 95 Bowling Green 44 26.7, 90 Marshall 28 23.4
63% 201 Hampton 35 23.6, 216 North Carolina A&T 21 15.2
63% 182 California - Davis 38 28.4, 225 San Diego 24 18.4
61% 240 Davidson 28 22.9, 242 Campbell 27 15.6
61% 211 Wagner 41 31.7, 205 Cornell 7 29.6
61% 204 Dartmouth 43 19.9, 229 Bucknell 20 16.6
61% 192 Austin Peay 26 30.3, 218 Tennessee State 23 27.6
61% 135 Army 24 29.7, 146 North Texas 0 23.7
61% 132 Miami - Ohio 31 24.7, 128 Colorado State 10 21.4
61% 68 Kansas State 27 27.3, 74 Iowa State 20 25.1
61% 55 Michigan State 34 26.3, 51 Notre Dame 31 22.7
61% 53 Temple 30 29.4, 48 Connecticut 16 27.3
61% 34 Florida State 34 35.6, 35 Brigham Young 10 30.6
61% 15 Nebraska 56 22.6, 41 Washington 21 18.6
61% 14 Arizona 34 27.4, 13 Iowa 27 23.6
61% 8 Texas 24 32.2, 16 Texas Tech 14 30.4
46% 120 Eastern Washington 36 35.0, 103 Montana 27 35.7
44% 26 Georgia Tech 30 27.4, 33 North Carolina 24 28.0
39% 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 41 28.5, 230 Sacred Heart 0 30.8
39% 153 Texas State - San Marc 21 34.7, 136 California Poly 12 36.7
39% 126 Arkansas State 34 22.7, 104 Northeast Louisiana 20 26.6
39% 117 Toledo 37 27.2, 119 Western Michigan 24 30.7
39% 81 Southern Mississippi 31 25.4, 62 Kansas 16 27.2
39% 59 North Carolina State 30 33.3, 40 Cincinnati 19 34.8
39% 30 Nevada - Reno 52 36.4, 11 California 31 39.1
39% 17 Arkansas 31 25.5, 21 Georgia 24 29.2
38% 188 Western Carolina 28 21.2, 174 Gardner - Webb 14 30.3
37% 203 Tennessee - Martin 20 23.5, 181 Eastern Illinois 10 28.1
37% 131 Memphis 24 28.0, 93 Middle Tennessee State 17 35.3
34% 189 Fordham 16 25.1, 175 Columbia 9 32.9
31% 77 California - Los Angel 31 26.8, 36 Houston 13 36.0
29% 152 Illinois State 24 11.5, 121 South Dakota State 14 26.6
29% 87 Vanderbilt 28 13.2, 50 Mississippi 14 30.1
26% 113 Stephen F. Austin 22 19.8, 83 Northern Iowa 20 32.8
22% 214 Lamar 29 30.2, 185 Southeast Louisiana 28 43.7
19% 165 Sacramento State 24 35.1, 123 Weber State 17 44.9
17% 234 Alabama State 18 8.0, 164 Prairie View 15 32.3
15% 114 Alabama - Birmingham 34 28.9, 72 Troy State 33 38.3
14% 190 Rhode Island 28 14.4, 88 New Hampshire 25 41.4
12% 196 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 6.8, 107 Southern Illinois 21 38.4
10% 209 Robert Morris 30 13.8, 109 Liberty 23 40.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 37 1.03 17 1.03 48 1.01 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 79 78.7 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net