prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 215 Jackson State 43 32.8, 241 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 5.9
90% 177 Albany 28 42.8, 243 Savannah State 14 5.2
90% 73 Kansas 42 36.3, 181 New Mexico State 16 0.4
90% 63 James Madison 10 39.7, 128 Liberty 3 15.9
90% 57 Connecticut 45 32.1, 111 Buffalo 21 11.2
90% 49 Michigan State 45 51.2, 169 Northern Colorado 7 10.7
90% 48 Virginia 48 50.6, 212 Virginia Military 7 0.0
90% 46 Houston 42 52.6, 148 Tulane 23 18.1
90% 40 Tennessee 32 37.9, 104 Alabama - Birmingham 29 14.2
90% 39 Missouri 51 40.8, 116 Miami - Ohio 13 13.7
90% 30 Southern California 50 44.2, 143 Washington State 16 14.5
90% 27 Utah 56 44.6, 135 San Jose State 3 6.8
90% 19 Iowa 45 41.7, 133 Ball State 0 3.0
90% 10 Nebraska 17 46.6, 140 South Dakota State 3 0.0
90% 9 Ohio State 73 64.0, 179 Eastern Michigan 20 1.4
89% 38 South Florida 24 55.3, 162 Western Kentucky 12 14.2
89% 25 Air Force 20 38.4, 106 Wyoming 14 16.5
89% 24 Florida State 31 49.5, 78 Wake Forest 0 26.4
88% 120 New Hampshire 31 32.5, 170 Lehigh 10 12.4
88% 110 Jacksonville State 28 34.5, 193 Eastern Illinois 23 14.3
88% 5 Texas Christian 41 39.4, 65 Southern Methodist 24 17.3
88% 4 Florida 48 42.3, 43 Kentucky 14 15.0
88% 3 Boise State 37 49.3, 31 Oregon State 24 24.4
87% 132 Weber State 20 41.6, 178 California - Davis 9 23.7
87% 113 Nevada - Las Vegas 45 38.3, 160 New Mexico 10 20.2
87% 102 Stephen F. Austin 71 56.8, 205 Lamar 3 22.8
87% 81 Syracuse 42 42.7, 174 Colgate 7 12.1
87% 34 Wisconsin 70 59.1, 196 Austin Peay 3 8.3
87% 2 Oregon 42 41.1, 54 Arizona State 31 17.4
86% 26 Penn State 22 26.5, 42 Temple 13 14.7
85% 216 Drake 21 40.4, 244 Valparaiso 19 13.8
85% 89 Massachusetts 26 42.3, 164 Stony Brook 21 24.0
85% 84 Tulsa 41 41.5, 153 Central Arkansas 14 18.4
85% 50 Michigan 65 41.2, 86 Bowling Green 21 24.4
84% 154 Western Illinois 40 38.4, 208 Indiana State 7 17.7
84% 105 Montana 28 39.6, 145 Sacramento State 25 21.6
84% 79 William & Mary 24 23.5, 149 Maine 21 7.2
83% 188 Dartmouth 21 47.5, 239 Sacred Heart 19 20.8
83% 182 Jacksonville 42 33.1, 238 Davidson 15 15.6
83% 122 Northeast Louisiana 21 35.4, 194 Southeast Louisiana 20 10.7
83% 76 Troy State 35 43.5, 119 Arkansas State 28 27.4
83% 6 Stanford 37 43.6, 53 Notre Dame 14 26.9
82% 115 Hawaii 66 46.5, 199 Charleston Southern 7 18.4
82% 109 Furman 31 42.3, 167 The Citadel 14 19.7
82% 51 Villanova 22 30.6, 118 Pennsylvania 10 6.3
80% 220 Morgan State 20 32.1, 240 Howard 3 16.0
80% 129 Northern Arizona 32 43.8, 207 Idaho State 7 23.4
79% 168 North Dakota 49 38.2, 226 Northwestern State 24 18.3
79% 91 Indiana 35 38.4, 159 Akron 20 15.9
79% 90 Appalachian State 35 30.2, 158 Samford 17 15.1
79% 74 Baylor 30 36.0, 134 Rice 13 22.3
79% 71 Maryland 42 38.3, 114 Florida International 28 20.6
78% 11 Louisiana State 20 30.3, 41 West Virginia 14 10.9
77% 14 Arizona 10 36.8, 28 California 9 28.5
75% 59 Kansas State 17 29.4, 62 Central Florida 13 22.7
74% 210 Georgia State 24 50.5, 242 Campbell 21 30.1
74% 1 Alabama 24 33.2, 13 Arkansas 20 21.3
73% 75 Iowa State 27 21.8, 96 Northern Iowa 0 11.1
72% 15 Virginia Tech 19 28.6, 55 Boston College 0 19.8
71% 198 Coastal Carolina 34 32.1, 214 Delaware State 14 22.3
71% 8 Oklahoma 31 31.7, 45 Cincinnati 29 17.8
69% 69 Southern Mississippi 13 32.8, 101 Louisiana Tech 12 25.9
68% 183 Yale 21 27.7, 235 Cornell 7 14.6
65% 125 Youngstown State 31 31.4, 131 Southern Illinois 28 25.4
64% 112 Texas - El Paso 16 34.0, 124 Memphis 13 27.0
63% 121 North Dakota State 38 34.9, 127 South Dakota 16 29.0
63% 98 Marshall 24 25.2, 99 Ohio 23 20.7
63% 88 San Diego State 41 39.7, 92 Utah State 7 34.2
63% 33 North Carolina 17 21.2, 67 Rutgers 13 15.4
62% 17 Nevada - Reno 27 34.2, 47 Brigham Young 13 28.1
61% 218 North Carolina Central 27 28.6, 227 North Carolina A&T 16 22.5
61% 191 Columbia 24 27.0, 192 Towson 10 23.2
61% 175 Grambling 34 24.0, 189 Prairie View 17 20.6
61% 151 Texas State - San Marc 42 30.6, 147 Southern Utah 28 27.2
61% 142 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 28.1, 165 Western Carolina 21 23.1
61% 138 Illinois State 44 27.3, 141 Missouri State 41 22.1
61% 103 Middle Tennessee State 34 29.5, 136 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 24.0
61% 58 Northwestern 30 23.0, 52 Central Michigan 25 20.6
61% 18 Auburn 35 28.2, 22 South Carolina 27 22.8
60% 173 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 27.7, 161 Tennessee Tech 21 26.5
57% 231 San Diego 24 22.2, 225 Butler 0 19.7
53% 228 Alcorn State 41 24.6, 217 Alabama State 21 23.9
49% 152 California Poly 40 24.3, 163 McNeese State 14 24.6
39% 229 Sam Houston State 30 27.3, 195 Gardner - Webb 14 34.2
39% 190 Old Dominion 35 30.5, 197 Monmouth 21 33.3
39% 146 Brown 29 22.5, 117 Harvard 14 28.0
39% 137 Georgia Southern 38 20.4, 93 Elon 21 25.8
39% 36 Mississippi State 24 21.8, 29 Georgia 12 22.8
39% 16 Miami - Florida 31 28.9, 20 Pittsburgh 3 30.6
38% 233 Morehead State 45 19.2, 234 Marist 39 23.0
38% 223 Murray State 52 24.4, 201 Tennessee - Martin 16 28.2
38% 139 Montana State 30 25.2, 94 Eastern Washington 7 32.5
37% 206 Central Connecticut 41 29.2, 172 Bryant 24 34.9
37% 72 Mississippi 55 25.1, 32 Fresno State 38 30.8
36% 213 Bethune - Cookman 21 19.2, 176 Norfolk State 7 25.5
35% 187 Robert Morris 30 28.2, 185 Wagner 9 32.9
32% 237 Alabama A&M 34 24.1, 200 Southern 14 34.0
32% 221 Duquesne 28 19.5, 177 Albany 17 27.5
32% 204 Georgetown 17 22.2, 166 Holy Cross 7 28.5
32% 123 Army 35 22.5, 82 Duke 21 35.9
31% 209 Princeton 36 21.2, 156 Lafayette 33 32.6
26% 224 Tennessee State 29 12.8, 150 Florida A&M 18 34.3
24% 100 Delaware 34 20.4, 77 Richmond 13 31.8
23% 95 Northern Illinois 34 21.7, 80 Minnesota 23 30.8
20% 44 North Carolina State 45 28.0, 21 Georgia Tech 28 40.5
17% 56 California - Los Angel 34 2.9, 7 Texas 12 29.9
16% 107 Toledo 31 22.7, 83 Purdue 20 33.0
15% 144 Colorado State 36 15.9, 68 Idaho 34 33.3
10% 155 North Texas 21 20.6, 97 Florida Atlantic 17 41.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.36 36 0.79 19 1.04 50 1.06 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 82 82.8 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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