2010 Week 5 (30 Sep - 2 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90% 195 Prairie View            34 32.5,   244 Mississippi Valley Sta  13  4.8
 90% 147 South Dakota            27 37.4,   160 North Dakota            17 26.4
 90% 119 Liberty                 52 57.0,   242 Savannah State          14  1.1
 90% 107 Jacksonville State      40 48.4,   196 Murray State            34 17.9
 90% 102 Richmond                41 43.4,   186 Coastal Carolina        19 14.7
 90%  32 Mississippi State       49 56.4,   209 Alcorn State            16  0.0
 90%  28 California - Los Angel  42 41.9,   146 Washington State        28  3.7
 90%  17 Auburn                  52 50.5,   133 Northeast Louisiana      3 10.5
 90%  15 Nevada - Reno           44 45.0,    94 Nevada - Las Vegas      26 20.3
 90%  10 Louisiana State         16 37.4,    55 Tennessee               14 14.2
 90%   6 Texas Christian         27 46.3,   129 Colorado State           0  7.1
 90%   4 Boise State             59 61.8,   170 New Mexico State         0  4.9
 89%  78 Northern Illinois       50 36.7,   158 Akron                   14 17.7
 89%  66 Southern Methodist      42 40.3,   139 Rice                    31 22.4
 89%   7 Ohio State              24 36.9,    67 Illinois                13 17.4
 88%  58 Fresno State            38 43.6,   140 California Poly         17 16.1
 87%  98 Massachusetts           27 45.1,   201 Towson                  14 20.0
 86% 167 Jacksonville            35 34.4,   214 San Diego               28 17.5
 86% 110 Pennsylvania            35 37.5,   202 Dartmouth               28  6.3
 86%  95 Ohio                    30 40.4,   176 Eastern Michigan        17 21.8
 86%  70 Southern Mississippi    41 36.3,   101 Marshall                16 20.8
 85% 178 Portland State          38 36.6,   213 Idaho State              3 22.6
 85%  42 Pittsburgh              44 39.9,   114 Florida International   17 14.9
 85%  33 Air Force               14 31.5,    59 Navy                     6 18.5
 84% 193 Dayton                  48 41.2,   243 Valparaiso              14  6.1
 84% 111 Texas - El Paso         38 37.3,   177 New Mexico              20 22.1
 84%  71 Maryland                21 46.5,   105 Duke                    16 30.7
 84%  40 North Carolina          42 37.7,    60 East Carolina           17 28.5
 82%  56 South Florida           31 35.1,   124 Florida Atlantic         3 11.6
 82%  25 Michigan                42 46.6,    90 Indiana                 35 27.4
 81% 197 Hampton                 20 27.6,   231 Delaware State          14 20.7
 81%  76 Idaho                   33 36.7,   131 Western Michigan        13 25.6
 81%  11 Oklahoma State          38 47.3,    31 Texas A&M               35 34.8
 80%  47 Northwestern            29 31.1,    91 Minnesota               28 20.9
 78% 223 Drake                   42 32.8,   236 Marist                   0 23.1
 78% 185 Central Connecticut     24 39.3,   239 Sacred Heart            14 22.8
 78% 113 Montana                 30 38.5,   172 Northern Colorado        7 24.0
 77%  29 Oregon State            31 33.3,    43 Arizona State           28 23.6
 75% 179 Old Dominion            14 34.1,   208 Gardner - Webb           7 22.5
 75% 168 Robert Morris           35 26.4,   216 Saint Francis - Pennsy  14 15.9
 75%  83 Tulsa                   48 34.6,   127 Memphis                  7 27.5
 75%  39 Temple                  42 27.2,    92 Army                    35 12.4
 75%  37 Georgia Tech            24 35.5,    85 Wake Forest             20 24.7
 74% 157 Grambling               25 31.4,   219 Alabama A&M             22 18.0
 74% 128 Elon                    24 23.6,   156 Samford                 19  8.9
 74%  44 Connecticut             40 26.6,    65 Vanderbilt              21 18.0
 74%  20 Florida State           34 28.5,    63 Virginia                14 19.0
 74%  16 Iowa                    24 24.0,    21 Penn State               3 16.9
 72%   9 Miami - Florida         30 31.5,    41 Clemson                 21 21.0
 72%   2 Oregon                  52 44.5,     5 Stanford                31 38.1
 71% 137 South Carolina State    19 30.7,   173 Florida A&M              0 23.8
 71% 106 Northern Iowa           24 18.0,   116 South Dakota State      14 11.0
 71%  87 Hawaii                  41 32.4,    97 Louisiana Tech          21 25.2
 71%   1 Alabama                 31 29.0,     3 Florida                  6 21.9
 68%   8 Oklahoma                28 31.8,    23 Texas                   20 23.3
 67% 181 Colgate                 34 29.6,   191 Georgetown               3 21.7
 67%  74 Baylor                  55 23.2,    77 Kansas                   7 17.9
 66% 203 Virginia Military       24 39.6,   218 Presbyterian            13 32.9
 65% 220 Georgia State           37 45.0,   225 Morehead State          10 39.3
 65% 198 Tennessee State         37 23.2,   230 North Carolina A&T       7 13.8
 65% 188 McNeese State           24 37.3,   227 Northwestern State       7 29.8
 65% 184 Holy Cross              36 25.1,   182 Fordham                 31 22.3
 65% 180 Columbia                42 24.3,   194 Princeton               14 16.7
 64% 207 Sam Houston State       38 39.5,   233 Lamar                   10 33.4
 64% 109 Montana State           64 28.1,   148 Sacramento State        61 22.2
 62% 159 Southeast Missouri Sta  28 24.2,   187 Eastern Illinois        13 20.6
 61% 206 Texas Southern          21 25.7,   228 Alabama State            7 22.5
 61% 190 Bethune - Cookman       69 19.5,   217 Morgan State            32 16.0
 61% 144 Harvard                 35 26.6,   162 Lafayette               10 22.8
 61% 125 Northern Arizona        26 32.0,   153 Southern Utah           23 27.2
 61%  88 Louisville              34 29.5,   118 Arkansas State          24 26.2
 61%  54 Mississippi             42 34.2,    48 Kentucky                35 31.3
 61%  14 Virginia Tech           41 31.5,    30 North Carolina State    30 29.0
 58% 212 Wagner                  29 30.8,   200 Bryant                  21 29.6

 47% 126 Eastern Washington      35 28.5,   136 Weber State             24 29.1
 41% 234 Cornell                 21 13.7,   237 Bucknell                12 15.6
 40% 123 Miami - Ohio            27 23.0,    99 Kent State              21 23.9
 39% 229 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   41 31.1,   232 Southern                23 34.5
 39% 166 Rhode Island            27 23.4,   132 Brown                   24 32.4
 39%  62 Iowa State              52 20.1,    36 Texas Tech              38 24.2
 39%  52 Notre Dame              31 17.5,    64 Boston College          13 19.8
 39%  51 Michigan State          34 28.2,    27 Wisconsin               24 32.4
 38% 149 Missouri State          35 35.3,   120 Youngstown State        25 40.0
 37% 210 Monmouth                44 25.9,   211 Duquesne                17 30.4
 37% 165 Western Carolina        24 16.7,   163 The Citadel             13 21.2
 34% 199 Albany                  23 14.6,   175 Yale                    20 26.2
 34%  75 Delaware                13 16.2,    68 James Madison           10 22.5
 33% 134 Southern Illinois       38 26.3,   130 Illinois State          17 32.5
 33%  82 William & Mary          31 18.2,    53 Villanova               24 23.1
 32% 112 Buffalo                 28 24.7,   104 Bowling Green           26 30.8
 30% 241 Campbell                27 10.1,   235 Butler                  10 26.4
 30% 154 Maine                   16 19.5,   117 New Hampshire           13 25.7
 25% 151 Louisiana - Lafayette   28 22.8,   142 North Texas             27 29.2
 21%  79 Colorado                29 15.2,    35 Georgia                 27 26.6
 20% 103 Wyoming                 20 20.6,    89 Toledo                  15 28.6
 16% 171 California - Davis      14 18.4,   150 San Jose State          13 29.6
 16% 164 Wofford                 38 27.0,   115 Furman                  17 38.8
 16% 145 Western Illinois        28 18.0,   108 North Dakota State      16 31.7
 15% 121 Utah State              31 16.5,    57 Brigham Young           16 31.6
 13% 221 Tennessee - Martin      27 17.9,   174 Tennessee Tech          24 36.5
 11% 135 Tulane                  17  6.5,    73 Rutgers                 14 29.0
 10% 138 Ball State              31  6.0,    50 Central Michigan        17 34.4
 10%  69 Washington              32 23.0,    26 Southern California     31 40.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.59  34 0.88  24 1.17  42 0.91   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103  74  77.6 0.95

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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