2010 Week 6 (5-9 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90% 205 Georgia State           55 47.6,   241 Savannah State          21 20.5
 90% 169 Bethune - Cookman       47 39.1,   229 Delaware State          24 13.6
 90% 140 Furman                  56 51.2,   242 Howard                  14  1.5
 90% 132 Pennsylvania            31 34.5,   238 Bucknell                10  2.1
 90% 128 South Carolina State    34 29.9,   206 Norfolk State           13  2.7
 90% 112 Kent State              28 35.1,   175 Akron                   17 12.2
 90%  99 Montana                 47 44.2,   224 Idaho State             28  1.4
 90%  98 Montana State           44 45.5,   160 Portland State          31 24.6
 90%  86 Louisville              56 35.1,   153 Memphis                  0 12.8
 90%  79 Stephen F. Austin       32 43.2,   184 McNeese State           27 16.9
 90%  78 James Madison           17 34.8,   192 Towson                  13  6.0
 90%  74 William & Mary          26 40.7,   161 Rhode Island             7  9.9
 90%  71 Vanderbilt              52 47.6,   174 Eastern Michigan         6 13.1
 90%  67 Delaware                26 32.9,   146 Maine                    7  6.8
 90%  60 Cincinnati              45 37.9,   113 Miami - Ohio             3 18.0
 90%  43 West Virginia           49 32.3,    90 Nevada - Las Vegas      10 11.7
 90%  32 North Carolina State    44 37.4,    77 Boston College          17 19.9
 90%  30 Wisconsin               41 41.8,    95 Minnesota               23 17.2
 90%  16 Nevada - Reno           35 54.9,   156 San Jose State          13  8.1
 90%  12 Oklahoma State          54 57.1,   151 Louisiana - Lafayette   28 16.2
 90%   8 Ohio State              38 51.0,    87 Indiana                 10 15.2
 90%   7 Texas Christian         45 41.3,    94 Wyoming                  0  2.1
 90%   3 Boise State             57 57.0,    96 Toledo                  14 11.3
 90%   2 Oregon                  43 66.4,   142 Washington State        23 14.1
 89% 122 Jacksonville State      30 40.0,   212 Tennessee - Martin      20 16.9
 89%  57 Central Florida         42 31.8,   108 Alabama - Birmingham     7 12.1
 89%  23 Missouri                26 36.8,    66 Colorado                 0 18.6
 89%  17 Virginia Tech           45 37.4,    82 Central Michigan        21  9.4
 89%   4 Stanford                37 43.0,    31 Southern California     35 22.7
 88% 124 Liberty                 44 47.1,   218 Charleston Southern     20 14.4
 87% 210 Bryant                  25 37.5,   237 Sacred Heart            24 17.0
 87% 186 Albany                  48 29.9,   226 Saint Francis - Pennsy   0 11.7
 87%  34 Air Force               49 35.9,   116 Colorado State          27  8.0
 86% 168 Stony Brook             27 36.9,   207 Virginia Military        9 22.7
 86% 166 Grambling               22 34.5,   225 Alabama State            7 11.3
 86% 130 Harvard                 31 36.4,   228 Cornell                 17  0.0
 85% 118 Florida International   28 42.6,   157 Western Kentucky        21 28.4
 85% 107 Texas - El Paso         44 36.6,   136 Rice                    24 26.2
 85%  15 Auburn                  37 41.5,    59 Kentucky                34 29.6
 84% 182 Sam Houston State       26 33.6,   222 Nicholls State           7 24.5
 84% 171 Jacksonville            39 37.4,   204 Drake                   34 25.0
 84% 152 Sacramento State        42 44.8,   185 Northern Colorado        7 30.9
 84%  42 Georgia Tech            33 29.4,    70 Virginia                21 16.8
 82% 233 Southern                38 35.2,   244 Mississippi Valley Sta  20 17.9
 82% 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog  28 30.9,   177 The Citadel             10 22.0
 81% 164 Robert Morris           17 32.1,   180 Monmouth                16 23.4
 81%  85 Appalachian State       34 40.3,   131 Elon                    31 23.9
 81%  18 California              35 30.4,    33 California - Los Angel   7 18.5
 80% 172 Lehigh                  21 28.6,   183 Fordham                 17 21.3
 79% 154 Southeast Missouri Sta  19 28.4,   191 Tennessee State         17 13.1
 78%  19 Utah                    68 33.1,    49 Iowa State              27 25.8
 76% 201 Jackson State           30 28.4,   219 Alabama A&M             14 18.3
 76% 181 Eastern Kentucky        35 26.7,   196 Eastern Illinois         7 18.5
 75% 200 Central Connecticut     31 34.0,   221 Duquesne                29 22.6
 74%  28 North Carolina          21 31.0,    45 Clemson                 16 23.0
 72%  47 Georgia                 41 28.8,    46 Tennessee               14 24.0
 71% 165 Columbia                42 25.7,   188 Lafayette               28 16.4
 71% 101 Ohio                    49 26.3,   110 Bowling Green           25 20.6
 70% 173 New Mexico State        16 29.9,   176 New Mexico              14 25.5
 69% 167 Colgate                 44 35.3,   217 Princeton               10 24.6
 66% 127 Arkansas State          24 28.5,   148 North Texas             19 26.3
 65%  68 Southern Methodist      21 35.4,    64 Tulsa                   18 33.1
 65%  14 Nebraska                48 29.0,    37 Kansas State            13 23.7
 64%  58 Navy                    28 22.7,    83 Wake Forest             27 18.4
 63% 134 California Poly         50 28.9,   170 Old Dominion            37 21.2
 63% 105 Southern Illinois       45 22.3,    97 Northern Iowa           38 19.2
 61% 240 Marist                  51 25.2,   243 Valparaiso               7 23.5
 61% 195 Dayton                  21 28.0,   216 San Diego               20 26.0
 61% 126 New Hampshire           17 24.5,   111 Richmond                 0 23.7
 61% 123 South Dakota State      33 23.9,   121 Western Illinois        29 20.2
 61% 114 Eastern Washington      21 33.3,   120 Northern Arizona        14 27.2
 61%  89 Army                    41 23.6,   119 Tulane                  23 20.8
 61%  84 Troy State              42 32.5,   106 Middle Tennessee State  13 30.4
 61%  41 Notre Dame              23 26.2,    40 Pittsburgh              17 22.2
 61%  21 Arkansas                24 32.8,    25 Texas A&M               17 31.5
 60% 193 Tennessee Tech          34 35.5,   209 Austin Peay             21 34.5
 55% 197 Prairie View            21 27.2,   213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    6 26.7
 51%  44 Arizona State           24 31.6,    56 Washington              14 31.5

 49% 190 Yale                    23 29.5,   198 Dartmouth               20 29.8
 49% 109 Louisiana Tech          24 28.3,    91 Utah State               6 28.4
 48% 155 Southern Utah           31 24.3,   162 North Dakota            21 24.5
 47% 203 Wagner                  22 23.4,   214 Georgetown              16 23.8
 46%  76 Brigham Young           24 21.1,    61 San Diego State         21 21.4
 39% 231 Morgan State            27 24.2,   234 North Carolina A&T      14 26.9
 39% 211 Hampton                 27 26.7,   215 North Carolina Central  13 28.5
 39% 199 Texas Southern          30 29.5,   202 Alcorn State            20 32.8
 39% 163 California - Davis      17 28.1,   147 South Dakota            13 30.2
 39% 143 Northeast Louisiana     20 22.2,   125 Florida Atlantic        17 23.3
 39% 129 North Dakota State      34 26.2,   137 Youngstown State        29 28.1
 39%  75 Northern Illinois       31 28.2,    50 Temple                  17 32.0
 39%  52 Texas Tech              45 30.2,    35 Baylor                  38 33.6
 38% 158 Samford                 38 14.7,   159 Western Carolina         7 17.7
 35%  39 Mississippi State       47 32.4,    48 Houston                 24 34.7
 34% 239 Butler                  24 11.6,   235 Davidson                 8 20.1
 27%  72 East Carolina           44 32.6,    69 Southern Mississippi    43 37.8
 23%  81 Syracuse                13 14.3,    53 South Florida            9 28.6
 20% 194 Southeast Louisiana     49 24.5,   138 Texas State - San Marc  24 37.3
 19%  88 Rutgers                 27 15.7,    36 Connecticut             24 28.2
 18% 144 Wofford                 33 22.0,   115 Georgia Southern        31 34.8
 17% 178 Murray State            72 28.3,   135 Missouri State          59 38.6
 17%  13 Louisiana State         33 15.5,     5 Florida                 29 27.2
 16%  51 Illinois                33  8.5,    27 Penn State              13 20.0
 16%  29 Oregon State            29 21.8,    11 Arizona                 27 36.0
 15%  93 Purdue                  20 16.1,    54 Northwestern            17 33.2
 14%  80 Hawaii                  49 30.7,    62 Fresno State            27 41.9
 13% 133 Western Michigan        45 17.5,   104 Ball State              16 27.9
 12% 223 Indiana State           59 17.5,   149 Illinois State          24 38.8
 12% 189 Holy Cross              17 19.9,   141 Brown                   13 30.6
 12%  38 Michigan State          34 32.7,    22 Michigan                17 43.4
 12%  26 South Carolina          35 13.1,     1 Alabama                 21 31.7
 12%  20 Florida State           45 22.2,     9 Miami - Florida         17 33.1
 10% 227 Northwestern State      24  9.6,   150 Central Arkansas        19 39.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 0.70  27 0.95  12 1.12  65 0.87   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112  78  86.5 0.90

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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