prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 218 Duquesne 37 38.2, 239 Sacred Heart 17 21.2
90% 187 Florida A&M 31 44.1, 242 Savannah State 0 7.9
90% 183 Jacksonville 86 51.5, 244 Valparaiso 7 12.2
90% 146 Weber State 16 41.0, 221 Idaho State 13 20.8
90% 129 Liberty 41 35.0, 211 Virginia Military 7 13.8
90% 87 Ohio 38 39.7, 173 Akron 10 11.4
90% 79 Fresno State 33 43.8, 178 New Mexico State 10 11.2
90% 78 Delaware 24 38.8, 158 Rhode Island 17 8.9
90% 76 Troy State 31 45.9, 145 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 21.7
90% 75 Tulsa 52 38.5, 136 Tulane 24 17.7
90% 66 Southern Mississippi 41 39.8, 168 Memphis 19 14.6
90% 63 Villanova 48 28.7, 142 Maine 18 11.6
90% 45 Central Florida 35 28.8, 113 Marshall 14 13.2
90% 41 Georgia Tech 42 41.2, 135 Middle Tennessee State 14 10.8
90% 40 Notre Dame 44 37.6, 96 Western Michigan 20 15.0
90% 26 Georgia 43 30.9, 69 Vanderbilt 0 11.8
90% 25 Miami - Florida 28 42.7, 99 Duke 13 19.9
90% 19 Virginia Tech 52 46.7, 84 Wake Forest 21 17.2
90% 17 Arizona 24 45.9, 120 Washington State 7 14.3
90% 11 Louisiana State 32 55.1, 167 McNeese State 10 0.0
90% 9 Florida State 24 42.0, 85 Boston College 19 7.9
90% 8 Utah 30 45.8, 97 Wyoming 6 15.0
90% 6 Oklahoma 52 47.3, 71 Iowa State 0 15.2
90% 4 Texas Christian 31 38.4, 73 Brigham Young 3 4.6
90% 3 Alabama 23 48.0, 60 Mississippi 10 14.8
90% 2 Boise State 48 53.0, 139 San Jose State 0 5.0
89% 198 Jackson State 49 39.3, 233 Southern 45 18.9
89% 130 Jacksonville State 24 37.8, 193 Tennessee State 0 15.0
89% 116 Wofford 45 36.7, 182 Western Carolina 14 15.0
89% 88 Stephen F. Austin 30 40.3, 175 Central Arkansas 7 11.1
89% 58 Temple 28 42.2, 118 Bowling Green 27 21.6
88% 202 Georgia State 20 40.1, 228 North Carolina Central 17 24.8
88% 160 Grambling 38 42.7, 217 Alcorn State 28 22.7
88% 107 Eastern Washington 35 33.5, 201 Northern Colorado 28 12.3
88% 89 Appalachian State 39 46.3, 192 The Citadel 10 12.3
88% 64 Northern Illinois 45 31.0, 94 Buffalo 14 17.2
87% 184 Tennessee Tech 34 33.9, 212 Eastern Illinois 20 20.7
87% 91 Toledo 34 28.2, 114 Kent State 21 17.4
86% 231 Delaware State 31 25.3, 237 North Carolina A&T 26 18.2
86% 14 Auburn 65 36.7, 21 Arkansas 43 27.0
85% 206 Drake 14 34.4, 238 Campbell 12 21.7
85% 83 Purdue 28 30.2, 95 Minnesota 17 21.3
85% 61 Kansas State 59 29.7, 102 Kansas 7 20.8
83% 153 Brown 17 35.8, 227 Princeton 13 15.7
83% 111 Western Illinois 40 38.4, 141 Youngstown State 38 27.1
83% 82 Indiana 36 37.6, 109 Arkansas State 34 25.7
82% 194 Wagner 22 32.7, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 17.0
82% 155 Southeast Missouri Sta 41 33.5, 214 Austin Peay 24 19.6
82% 106 Montana 23 38.5, 156 Portland State 21 29.6
81% 154 Colgate 44 33.0, 222 Cornell 3 15.7
81% 32 West Virginia 20 27.0, 57 South Florida 6 11.8
80% 44 Clemson 31 32.9, 65 Maryland 7 22.4
80% 16 Oklahoma State 34 50.2, 46 Texas Tech 17 41.4
79% 31 North Carolina 44 25.4, 74 Virginia 10 16.2
78% 179 Monmouth 21 35.0, 213 Bryant 12 20.0
77% 195 Dayton 33 27.4, 235 Butler 13 12.6
75% 190 Coastal Carolina 35 37.9, 220 Presbyterian 7 30.7
75% 143 Pennsylvania 27 28.5, 159 Columbia 13 17.0
74% 53 Navy 28 23.3, 72 Southern Methodist 21 16.4
73% 27 Michigan State 26 29.1, 33 Illinois 6 23.2
72% 115 Florida International 34 27.3, 147 North Texas 10 23.1
71% 108 Northern Iowa 19 29.2, 150 South Dakota 14 23.0
69% 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 25.8, 223 Alabama A&M 14 20.9
68% 18 Iowa 38 33.3, 39 Michigan 28 27.4
66% 125 Northeast Louisiana 35 28.5, 151 Western Kentucky 30 26.3
65% 185 Yale 7 27.1, 189 Fordham 6 21.3
65% 165 Robert Morris 38 24.6, 170 Albany 0 19.7
65% 81 Rutgers 23 23.4, 90 Army 20 18.2
63% 205 Hampton 7 22.4, 207 Norfolk State 6 17.8
63% 112 Colorado State 43 25.5, 101 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 23.5
61% 216 San Diego 14 26.2, 232 Marist 10 20.8
61% 177 Sam Houston State 57 27.5, 163 Southeast Louisiana 7 26.1
61% 134 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 31.2, 128 Georgia Southern 27 28.8
61% 43 Baylor 31 23.7, 68 Colorado 25 20.9
61% 42 Pittsburgh 45 23.6, 70 Syracuse 14 20.2
61% 38 Cincinnati 35 25.3, 51 Louisville 27 24.4
54% 121 Alabama - Birmingham 21 31.0, 105 Texas - El Paso 6 30.5
45% 149 Southern Utah 20 28.1, 138 California Poly 7 28.6
44% 162 Indiana State 38 38.7, 152 Missouri State 35 39.7
41% 119 Northern Arizona 34 31.2, 98 Montana State 7 32.2
41% 23 Missouri 30 27.7, 29 Texas A&M 9 28.6
39% 209 Gardner - Webb 35 22.9, 208 Charleston Southern 25 26.7
39% 203 Dartmouth 27 25.4, 186 Holy Cross 19 27.6
39% 199 Lafayette 28 30.4, 172 Stony Brook 21 34.0
39% 28 Southern California 48 28.8, 15 California 14 31.5
37% 137 Furman 27 24.3, 133 Samford 10 29.3
35% 59 San Diego State 27 30.5, 37 Air Force 25 34.4
28% 122 South Dakota State 31 20.8, 104 Southern Illinois 10 28.8
27% 124 Richmond 11 17.9, 100 Massachusetts 10 27.6
25% 34 Wisconsin 31 24.9, 10 Ohio State 18 33.4
24% 204 Tennessee - Martin 10 16.5, 161 Eastern Kentucky 7 24.1
24% 164 Bethune - Cookman 14 22.4, 132 South Carolina State 0 37.4
19% 240 Davidson 17 19.2, 230 Morehead State 10 33.2
19% 174 Lehigh 21 13.1, 144 Harvard 19 27.2
19% 52 Washington 35 26.4, 20 Oregon State 34 37.4
18% 92 Louisiana Tech 48 19.7, 55 Idaho 35 27.4
16% 54 Hawaii 27 36.4, 22 Nevada - Reno 21 46.5
16% 50 Kentucky 31 21.8, 13 South Carolina 28 35.8
16% 24 Mississippi State 10 18.9, 12 Florida 7 33.0
15% 110 New Hampshire 28 8.1, 86 James Madison 14 20.1
15% 67 East Carolina 33 39.4, 30 North Carolina State 27 48.1
13% 225 Nicholls State 47 17.6, 169 Texas State - San Marc 45 40.2
13% 181 Illinois State 34 18.9, 117 North Dakota State 24 31.3
13% 123 Miami - Ohio 27 21.8, 93 Central Michigan 20 33.0
12% 35 Texas 20 13.4, 7 Nebraska 13 33.5
10% 234 Bucknell 24 9.2, 215 Georgetown 21 24.5
10% 196 Eastern Michigan 41 22.0, 140 Ball State 38 43.0
10% 148 Rice 34 31.3, 62 Houston 31 51.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.35 20 1.11 14 0.86 69 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 77 85.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net