prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 216 San Diego 30 47.2, 244 Valparaiso 10 4.3
90% 172 Grambling 35 42.4, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 7.4
90% 150 Brown 27 35.4, 226 Cornell 14 6.1
90% 77 Idaho 37 42.2, 168 New Mexico State 14 13.0
90% 58 Brigham Young 25 25.0, 97 Wyoming 20 7.4
90% 55 East Carolina 37 44.3, 114 Marshall 10 21.9
90% 46 Central Florida 41 41.0, 130 Rice 14 12.1
90% 12 Virginia Tech 44 50.4, 91 Duke 7 15.7
90% 11 Utah 59 48.2, 96 Colorado State 6 13.0
90% 6 Stanford 38 58.4, 122 Washington State 28 13.6
90% 4 Alabama 41 33.9, 57 Tennessee 10 14.5
90% 2 Oregon 60 45.6, 53 California - Los Angel 13 14.3
89% 160 Lehigh 32 31.8, 225 Bucknell 10 5.0
89% 102 Richmond 28 35.9, 184 Towson 6 10.0
89% 94 Toledo 31 36.6, 141 Ball State 24 18.9
89% 85 Appalachian State 37 43.9, 193 Western Carolina 14 17.3
89% 81 Virginia 48 49.6, 178 Eastern Michigan 21 17.2
89% 61 San Diego State 30 44.4, 177 New Mexico 20 14.5
89% 21 South Carolina 21 28.4, 82 Vanderbilt 7 10.3
89% 5 Texas Christian 38 39.3, 37 Air Force 7 16.4
88% 131 Montana State 37 40.0, 199 Northern Colorado 35 16.6
88% 76 Fresno State 33 34.1, 140 San Jose State 18 18.7
88% 56 Villanova 14 30.4, 99 James Madison 7 10.5
87% 227 Alabama State 24 32.2, 242 Savannah State 0 11.6
87% 188 Monmouth 19 35.5, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 10.7
87% 155 Jacksonville 56 46.1, 233 Marist 14 15.6
87% 15 Ohio State 49 36.3, 79 Purdue 0 8.0
86% 138 Harvard 45 33.3, 214 Princeton 28 15.2
86% 128 Jacksonville State 56 47.1, 215 Austin Peay 3 16.2
84% 107 Northern Iowa 42 35.4, 161 Illinois State 14 15.8
84% 43 Texas A&M 45 35.9, 116 Kansas 10 17.6
84% 23 Mississippi State 29 38.4, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 24 7.2
83% 194 Prairie View 30 38.1, 232 Southern 16 22.0
82% 157 Bethune - Cookman 23 35.4, 228 North Carolina Central 10 16.3
82% 146 South Carolina State 10 25.6, 200 Hampton 7 5.6
82% 49 Illinois 43 35.8, 88 Indiana 13 19.4
82% 26 Pittsburgh 41 32.7, 74 Rutgers 21 12.5
80% 106 South Dakota State 30 34.8, 145 Youngstown State 20 19.7
80% 95 Stephen F. Austin 31 39.7, 156 Sam Houston State 28 22.7
79% 234 North Carolina A&T 52 30.4, 241 Howard 32 19.0
79% 197 Dayton 41 38.2, 240 Campbell 23 12.5
79% 126 Pennsylvania 27 22.3, 176 Yale 20 11.1
79% 111 Arkansas State 37 31.9, 125 Florida Atlantic 16 25.0
79% 59 Hawaii 45 36.3, 98 Utah State 7 26.8
79% 50 Penn State 33 25.7, 89 Minnesota 21 17.2
78% 147 California Poly 22 28.7, 170 North Dakota 21 17.8
78% 121 Eastern Washington 28 41.4, 143 Sacramento State 24 30.3
74% 28 Arkansas 38 38.4, 47 Mississippi 24 26.0
73% 180 Old Dominion 34 42.0, 206 Georgia State 20 30.4
73% 60 Northern Illinois 33 34.3, 90 Central Michigan 7 19.6
72% 104 Western Michigan 56 34.5, 163 Akron 10 22.4
72% 29 Michigan State 35 30.7, 68 Northwestern 27 20.6
69% 212 Drake 42 29.3, 238 Davidson 10 12.3
69% 31 California 50 30.4, 39 Arizona State 17 23.1
68% 137 North Dakota State 27 35.9, 171 Indiana State 15 22.3
67% 149 Weber State 44 33.7, 167 Portland State 41 25.0
67% 78 William & Mary 17 24.6, 86 Delaware 16 17.9
67% 24 Arizona 44 32.9, 51 Washington 14 19.0
67% 22 Georgia 44 33.3, 44 Kentucky 31 27.1
66% 164 McNeese State 13 33.8, 205 Southeast Louisiana 10 25.9
66% 134 Georgia Southern 20 29.4, 189 The Citadel 0 18.6
66% 7 Auburn 24 37.1, 14 Louisiana State 17 30.4
65% 223 Morgan State 34 29.2, 229 Delaware State 24 23.1
65% 175 Central Arkansas 31 26.6, 210 Nicholls State 7 19.7
65% 62 Temple 42 29.9, 103 Buffalo 0 19.6
64% 165 Southeast Missouri Sta 40 23.1, 182 Eastern Kentucky 21 15.0
64% 92 New Hampshire 39 25.8, 113 Massachusetts 13 20.7
63% 148 Southern Utah 31 29.0, 151 South Dakota 13 24.6
63% 35 Clemson 27 31.7, 34 Georgia Tech 13 27.6
62% 109 Montana 24 29.9, 105 Northern Arizona 21 25.2
62% 84 Ohio 34 25.8, 110 Miami - Ohio 13 21.8
61% 202 Texas Southern 21 28.8, 207 Jackson State 18 23.4
61% 187 Murray State 38 35.1, 209 Eastern Illinois 28 31.8
61% 183 Florida A&M 17 20.5, 203 Norfolk State 13 18.1
61% 118 Middle Tennessee State 38 25.6, 127 Northeast Louisiana 10 19.5
61% 42 Texas Tech 27 29.7, 71 Colorado 24 24.6
61% 25 Miami - Florida 33 23.8, 20 North Carolina 10 21.6
58% 186 Fordham 14 28.2, 174 Lafayette 10 27.1
57% 142 Maine 28 24.1, 159 Rhode Island 23 23.1
55% 185 Tennessee Tech 21 23.8, 201 Tennessee State 10 22.8
53% 48 Baylor 47 31.0, 41 Kansas State 42 30.3
51% 66 Louisville 26 29.6, 52 Connecticut 0 29.4
39% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 39 28.4, 221 Alcorn State 35 33.4
39% 173 Stony Brook 38 27.8, 179 Coastal Carolina 28 30.8
39% 120 Wofford 28 28.6, 123 Elon 21 32.0
39% 9 Nebraska 51 28.8, 10 Oklahoma State 41 32.5
38% 169 Missouri State 31 33.1, 132 Western Illinois 28 39.7
38% 54 Navy 35 19.3, 40 Notre Dame 17 23.2
37% 237 Morehead State 21 19.1, 235 Butler 20 23.3
37% 133 Tennessee - Chattanoog 36 28.5, 117 Furman 28 37.7
37% 70 Houston 45 33.2, 65 Southern Methodist 20 38.0
36% 220 Virginia Military 34 24.5, 211 Charleston Southern 16 30.7
35% 72 Maryland 24 19.4, 69 Boston College 21 24.7
34% 195 Central Connecticut 30 22.7, 191 Albany 27 29.0
34% 115 Kent State 30 24.3, 108 Bowling Green 6 30.8
33% 19 Missouri 36 23.5, 1 Oklahoma 27 32.3
31% 136 Tulane 34 21.3, 112 Texas - El Paso 24 32.3
30% 27 Wisconsin 31 23.8, 18 Iowa 30 32.5
27% 239 Sacred Heart 33 21.3, 219 Georgetown 20 28.9
24% 218 Duquesne 21 22.9, 198 Wagner 20 34.4
24% 158 Western Kentucky 54 29.7, 135 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 39.7
24% 83 Syracuse 19 12.1, 32 West Virginia 14 33.2
21% 231 Presbyterian 26 16.0, 196 Gardner - Webb 24 35.0
20% 213 Northwestern State 16 29.0, 190 Texas State - San Marc 3 41.7
20% 181 Holy Cross 31 17.1, 139 Colgate 24 32.8
19% 192 Dartmouth 24 21.1, 162 Columbia 21 32.5
16% 63 South Florida 38 14.1, 36 Cincinnati 30 28.1
13% 75 Iowa State 28 9.9, 17 Texas 21 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.82 41 0.95 21 0.87 41 1.07 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 82 80.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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