2010 Week 10 (2-6 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90% 168 Colgate                 29 37.3,   228 Bucknell                14 12.8
 90% 155 South Carolina State    37 33.5,   223 Morgan State            13  8.2
 90% 150 Bethune - Cookman       21 49.1,   241 Howard                  10 13.2
 90% 146 Jacksonville            36 46.4,   235 Butler                   7 12.7
 90% 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog  31 34.6,   195 The Citadel             28 14.3
 90% 118 Montana                 38 41.6,   196 Northern Colorado       10 14.0
 90% 107 Jacksonville State      55 41.2,   177 Tennessee Tech          28 18.0
 90%  72 Brigham Young           24 37.4,   179 New Mexico              19  9.9
 90%  63 Northern Illinois       26 40.7,   148 Ball State              20 11.6
 90%  52 Villanova               49 45.1,   191 Towson                   7  8.0
 90%  39 Air Force               45 41.6,   123 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 12.3
 90%  38 Hawaii                  24 47.7,   165 New Mexico State         6  6.6
 90%  37 Penn State              31 36.8,    93 Indiana                 20 13.0
 90%  22 Arkansas                56 48.3,    86 Troy State              20 20.1
 90%  19 Florida State           41 46.4,    98 Wake Forest             28 20.5
 90%  17 Louisiana State         24 36.9,    83 Louisiana Tech          16  7.5
 90%  10 Nebraska                31 43.2,   122 Kansas                  17  7.5
 90%   4 Boise State             63 55.4,    87 Idaho                   25 14.7
 89% 194 Bryant                  35 33.6,   231 Saint Francis - Pennsy  12 15.9
 89% 153 Robert Morris           37 33.6,   206 Wagner                  10 14.0
 89%  92 Western Michigan        35 46.1,   190 Eastern Michigan        14 23.4
 89%  89 Army                    22 37.9,   198 Virginia Military       17  5.0
 89%  47 Temple                  56 45.5,   186 Akron                   17  9.6
 89%   1 Oregon                  44 51.1,    41 Arizona State           21 19.1
 88% 103 Richmond                49 33.9,   221 Georgetown              10  3.5
 87% 129 Liberty                 51 34.9,   209 Gardner - Webb          28 16.3
 87%   5 Oklahoma                65 42.6,    30 Texas A&M               10 22.5
 86%  31 Nevada - Reno           52 48.6,    77 Fresno State            14 30.2
 85%  25 Pittsburgh              27 33.2,    58 Notre Dame              22 16.8
 85%  18 Oregon State            48 40.5,    69 Washington              21 17.6
 84% 144 Youngstown State        30 43.7,   173 Illinois State          18 30.0
 84% 111 Middle Tennessee State  34 39.7,   160 Louisiana - Lafayette   17 22.0
 84%  15 Oklahoma State          24 46.8,    51 Texas Tech              17 28.4
 83% 185 Coastal Carolina        41 40.9,   218 Presbyterian            37 25.0
 83% 174 Columbia                30 28.9,   225 Cornell                 20 16.3
 83%  35 Michigan State          40 31.9,    94 Purdue                  37 16.5
 83%   2 Alabama                 31 27.5,    27 Mississippi State        3 14.0
 82% 176 Grambling               47 31.8,   207 Texas Southern          33 19.2
 82% 175 Holy Cross              28 26.7,   183 Lafayette               26 20.9
 81% 240 Campbell                17 38.2,   244 Valparaiso               3 21.2
 81% 154 Brown                   14 30.6,   189 Dartmouth                7 17.2
 81%  60 California - Los Angel  43 34.4,   127 Washington State         7 17.9
 80% 117 Stephen F. Austin       41 40.4,   202 Southeast Louisiana     10 20.9
 80% 110 Utah State              24 33.4,   147 San Jose State           9 21.0
 80%  70 William & Mary          20 26.7,    84 New Hampshire           17 17.0
 80%  46 Georgia Tech            49 37.4,    88 Duke                    10 27.3
 79% 143 Maine                   41 28.9,   159 Rhode Island            17 19.0
 79% 119 Northeast Louisiana     21 33.9,   156 Western Kentucky        18 20.1
 79%  75 Ohio                    27 29.3,   130 Buffalo                 24 16.4
 78% 102 Florida International   35 28.8,   136 North Texas             28 17.1
 78%  76 Southern Methodist      35 33.3,   120 Texas - El Paso         31 16.8
 78%  54 Navy                    35 28.5,    81 Delaware                18 16.0
 78%  13 Virginia Tech           36 34.8,    48 Maryland                 9 24.7
 77%  26 Wisconsin               45 43.5,    45 Michigan                24 30.7
 75% 171 Central Connecticut     20 33.4,   197 Monmouth                19 22.5
 74%  91 Alabama - Birmingham    31 39.9,   167 Memphis                 21 23.9
 73%   3 Texas Christian         55 36.8,     8 Utah                    28 27.1
 72%  97 Minnesota               16 30.9,   128 South Dakota State      13 19.8
 71%  78 Southern Mississippi    27 32.5,   112 Marshall                20 26.8
 71%   7 Ohio State              27 29.8,    12 Iowa                    24 20.5
 70% 145 Lehigh                  35 26.9,   181 Fordham                 28 19.4
 69%  99 Northern Iowa           34 33.7,   124 Western Illinois         0 24.1
 68%  49 Kentucky                24 30.9,    85 Vanderbilt              13 22.4
 67%  16 Missouri                38 29.8,    43 Kansas State            12 22.9
 65% 157 Southeast Missouri Sta  49 37.1,   180 Murray State            13 27.9
 64%  62 Iowa State              17 26.2,    71 Colorado                10 20.0
 63% 219 San Diego               13 27.8,   237 Morehead State           7 21.7
 63%  55 Mississippi             42 33.5,    57 Tennessee               17 28.7
 63%   6 Stanford                55 37.0,    21 Southern California     21 32.1
 62%  79 Appalachian State       27 37.7,   115 Elon                    10 31.7
 61% 229 Marist                  14 21.6,   239 Davidson                 6 17.0
 61% 213 Duquesne                45 29.4,   227 Sacred Heart            42 27.4
 61% 212 Norfolk State           21 22.8,   230 Delaware State          16 19.1
 61% 205 Eastern Illinois        49 22.2,   203 Tennessee - Martin      13 18.9
 61% 204 Prairie View            34 27.7,   224 Alcorn State            14 24.2
 61% 163 Sam Houston State       17 23.0,   158 Central Arkansas        14 19.9
 61% 141 Weber State             27 28.6,   137 Northern Arizona         9 25.1
 61% 140 North Dakota State      56 28.7,   161 Indiana State           17 24.2
 61% 138 Southern Illinois       44 40.4,   149 Missouri State          24 33.2
 61% 131 Rice                    28 31.5,   125 Tulane                  20 28.7
 61% 108 Eastern Washington      41 29.9,   132 Southern Utah           28 28.3
 61%  59 Louisville              10 21.8,    56 Syracuse                 9 17.8
 61%  44 Central Florida         37 36.8,    50 Houston                 32 31.3

 49% 114 Florida Atlantic        35 26.5,    95 Arkansas State          18 26.6
 49%  32 North Carolina          33 22.0,    24 Miami - Florida         24 22.1
 48%  11 Florida                 24 24.3,    20 South Carolina          14 24.6
 43% 121 Pennsylvania            17 22.5,   134 Harvard                  7 23.3
 43%  34 Texas                   47 25.4,    40 Baylor                  14 26.5
 40%  64 Cincinnati              24 21.4,    42 West Virginia           21 22.7
 39% 226 Austin Peay             24 20.7,   208 Tennessee State         21 24.9
 39% 215 Nicholls State          28 23.5,   193 Northwestern State      21 27.9
 39% 210 Hampton                 25 17.8,   184 Florida A&M              0 20.3
 39% 192 Dayton                  23 29.3,   200 Drake                    6 31.0
 39% 188 California - Davis      28 23.1,   162 North Dakota            20 25.2
 39% 166 McNeese State           30 26.7,   170 Texas State - San Marc  27 28.7
 39% 151 South Dakota            50 25.3,   152 California Poly         48 28.9
 39% 142 Montana State           27 32.9,   113 Sacramento State        17 35.0
 39% 126 Furman                  30 27.6,   133 Georgia Southern        22 30.8
 39% 101 Central Michigan        56 22.9,    82 Toledo                  28 25.5
 39%  68 Boston College          14 19.0,    73 Virginia                10 21.5
 39%  28 California              24 25.9,    14 Arizona                 16 28.0
 39%  23 Georgia                 31 33.8,     9 Auburn                  24 37.5
 38% 187 Western Carolina        24 16.7,   178 Eastern Kentucky         7 23.0
 38% 100 James Madison           17 16.5,   105 Massachusetts           14 19.8
 37% 214 Idaho State             41 27.2,   182 Portland State          34 34.0
 36% 116 Bowling Green           35 24.6,   109 Miami - Ohio            14 29.9
 34%  61 East Carolina           44 38.2,    65 Tulsa                   17 41.6
 34%  36 Clemson                 43 24.7,    29 North Carolina State    23 31.8
 33%  80 Rutgers                 31 18.4,    53 South Florida            0 24.3
 31% 236 Southern                34 20.9,   216 Alabama State           24 28.2
 26% 233 Alabama A&M             13 19.4,   199 Jackson State            5 28.5
 23% 222 Charleston Southern     30 25.8,   164 Stony Brook             27 40.1
 18% 220 Princeton               24 19.9,   172 Yale                    17 30.7
 18% 135 Samford                 27 15.0,   104 Wofford                 24 26.2
 15%  96 Wyoming                 30 22.5,    67 San Diego State         27 37.6
 12%  74 Northwestern            21 14.7,    33 Illinois                16 30.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.00  45 0.82  19 1.17  47 1.06   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116  83  86.1 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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