2010 Week 14 (2-4 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%   3 Boise State             50 59.1,   124 Utah State              14  5.2
 89%  22 West Virginia           35 37.0,    94 Rutgers                 14  7.2
 88%  69 Delaware                42 30.4,   125 Lehigh                  20 11.8
 88%  48 Hawaii                  59 43.7,   131 Nevada - Las Vegas      21 16.8
 85%  84 Idaho                   26 34.8,   149 San Jose State          23 17.0
 82% 106 Eastern Washington      37 32.1,   153 Southeast Missouri Sta  17 18.3
 82%  50 Central Florida         17 32.1,    73 Southern Methodist       7 19.4
 81%   1 Oregon                  37 42.6,    30 Oregon State            20 24.0
 80%  16 Nevada - Reno           35 49.4,    87 Louisiana Tech          17 26.4
 79%  78 Appalachian State       42 36.9,   113 Western Illinois        14 23.3
 78%  76 New Hampshire           45 35.6,   164 Bethune - Cookman       20 17.9
 78%  53 Washington              35 32.9,    96 Washington State        28 20.5
 74%  26 Southern California     28 31.2,    65 California - Los Angel  14 22.7
 67%  61 Villanova               54 33.4,    89 Stephen F. Austin       24 26.1
 67%   5 Oklahoma                23 33.3,    11 Nebraska                20 26.6
 64% 102 Wofford                 17 30.3,   136 Jacksonville State      14 26.0
 62%  99 Troy State              44 33.8,   133 Florida Atlantic         7 29.2
 61%  39 Pittsburgh              28 31.5,    62 Cincinnati              10 28.3
 61%   8 Auburn                  56 34.4,    12 South Carolina          17 30.7

 48%  13 Virginia Tech           44 27.1,    10 Florida State           33 27.6
 36% 120 North Dakota State      42 20.9,   117 Montana State           17 24.8
 29%  49 Connecticut             19 20.0,    46 South Florida           16 25.0
 28%  32 Arizona State           30 24.1,    21 Arizona                 29 31.9
 25%  81 Fresno State            25 25.1,    36 Illinois                23 35.2
 22% 127 Middle Tennessee State  28 22.1,    92 Florida International   27 32.4
 16% 104 Georgia Southern        31 14.2,    64 William & Mary          15 31.0
 14%  98 Miami - Ohio            26 15.5,    37 Northern Illinois       21 35.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 0.00   7 1.34   9 0.73   9 0.91   1 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  27  19  20.4 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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