prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 186 Texas Southern 11 26.0, 216 Alabama State 6 14.1
84% 186 Texas Southern 11 25.1, 216 Alabama State 6 14.9
80% 38 Navy 31 35.5, 85 Army 17 19.3
70% 68 Delaware 16 26.3, 75 New Hampshire 3 21.0
67% 105 Eastern Washington 38 24.1, 109 North Dakota State 31 20.2
59% 50 Villanova 42 31.4, 73 Appalachian State 24 29.1
41% 91 Georgia Southern 23 21.4, 97 Wofford 20 22.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.85 2 1.46 0 0.00 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 7 6 5.1 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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