9 Jan 2012: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2011 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4   9 11.1  7.2 Alabama                  124 59   0  9.2  5.2 Eastern Michigan        
  2  5  10 13.5  6.0 Oklahoma State           125 45   0 10.3  4.6 Indiana State           
  3  5   9 11.3  7.0 Louisiana State          126 26   0 10.3  4.6 Eastern Washington      
  4  6  10 13.3  5.9 Oregon                   127 59   0  9.5  5.0 Buffalo                 
  5 25   9 12.4  6.2 Stanford                 128 63   0  9.7  4.9 Appalachian State       
  6  6   9 12.8  5.9 Wisconsin                129 50   0  9.9  4.8 Stephen F. Austin       
  7  7   8 12.2  6.2 Boise State              130 56   0 10.7  4.4 Stony Brook             
  8  7   8 11.6  6.4 Oklahoma                 131 46   0  8.9  5.2 Delaware                
  9 31   7 11.5  6.2 Southern California      132 45   0 10.4  4.5 Central Arkansas        
 10 29   7 11.9  5.9 Arkansas                 133 33   0  9.8  4.8 Furman                  
 11 32   7 11.4  6.1 Michigan                 134 64   0 10.5  4.4 Indiana                 
 12  8   7 13.0  5.4 Houston                  135 30   0 10.4  4.4 Weber State             
 13 33   6 10.7  6.4 South Carolina           136 37   0  9.8  4.7 Central Michigan        
 14 26   6 10.8  6.3 Michigan State           137 71   0 10.1  4.6 New Mexico State        
 15 10   6 10.9  6.2 Missouri                 138 65   0  9.5  4.8 Idaho                   
 16 43   6 11.8  5.7 Texas A&M                139 71   0 10.4  4.4 Liberty                 
 17 11   6 11.7  5.8 Texas Christian          140 55   0  9.4  4.8 Colorado State          
 18 11   6 10.3  6.4 Florida State            141 18   0  9.3  4.9 Samford                 
 19 17   6 11.3  5.9 Georgia                  142 26   0  9.5  4.7 South Dakota            
 20 48   6 10.6  6.2 Notre Dame               143 30   0  9.3  4.9 Eastern Kentucky        
 21 22   6 10.1  6.4 Texas                    144 49   0  9.8  4.6 Troy State              
 22 48   6 13.4  4.9 Baylor                   145 57   0 10.8  4.1 Murray State            
 23 12   6 12.2  5.4 West Virginia            146 35   0 10.4  4.3 Portland State          
 24 12   5 11.0  5.9 Southern Mississippi     147 30   0  9.0  4.9 North Dakota            
 25 26   5 10.6  6.0 Nebraska                 148 50   0  9.5  4.6 Southern Illinois       
 26 13   5 10.1  6.2 Virginia Tech            149 52   0  9.7  4.5 Jacksonville State      
 27 48   5 10.4  6.1 California               150 16   0  9.5  4.6 Tennessee Tech          
 28 36   5 10.4  6.0 Florida                  151 20   0  9.1  4.8 Sacramento State        
 29 53   5 10.9  5.7 Kansas State             152 45   0  8.9  4.9 The Citadel             
 30 18   5  9.9  6.2 Utah                     153 41   0  9.6  4.6 Massachusetts           
 31 19   5 11.0  5.7 Cincinnati               154 22   0  9.2  4.7 Northern Arizona        
 32 58   5 11.7  5.4 Arizona State            155 **   0  9.7  4.5 Albany                  
 33 20   4  9.0  6.6 Penn State               156 60   0  9.7  4.5 South Dakota State      
 34 81   5 10.3  5.9 Vanderbilt               157 47  -1  9.9  4.3 Alabama - Birmingham    
 35 51   4 10.1  6.0 Temple                   158 79  -1  8.7  4.9 Holy Cross              
 36 59   4  9.9  6.1 Mississippi State        159 59  -1  9.5  4.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 37 49   4 10.2  6.0 Ohio State               160 40  -1  8.4  5.0 William & Mary          
 38 30   5 12.4  4.9 Toledo                   161 28  -1  9.9  4.3 Tennessee - Martin      
 39 29   4 10.4  5.8 Brigham Young            162 93  -1  9.3  4.5 Bethune - Cookman       
 40 51   4 10.4  5.8 Louisiana Tech           163 24  -1  8.6  4.9 California - Davis      
 41 17   4 10.1  6.0 Miami - Florida          164 89  -1  8.3  5.0 Brown                   
 42 28   4 10.3  5.9 Iowa                     165 94  -1  9.4  4.4 Jackson State           
 43 47   4 11.0  5.5 Tulsa                    166 83  -1  9.0  4.6 South Carolina State    
 44 31   4 10.9  5.5 Auburn                   167 30  -1  9.3  4.5 Rhode Island            
 45 41   4 11.7  5.2 Clemson                  168 29  -1  9.6  4.3 Missouri State          
 46 22   4 10.5  5.7 Nevada - Reno            169 40  -1 10.0  4.1 Middle Tennessee State  
 47 41   4  9.7  6.1 Tennessee                170 51  -1  9.4  4.4 Tulane                  
 48 34   4  9.9  6.0 Rutgers                  171 42  -1  9.8  4.1 Elon                    
 49 **   4 11.8  5.1 Washington               172 43  -1  9.0  4.5 Richmond                
 50 15   4 11.5  5.2 Northern Illinois        173 91  -1  9.1  4.5 Georgetown              
 51 62   4 11.3  5.3 Arizona                  174 **  -1  8.9  4.6 Duquesne                
 52 15   4 10.4  5.7 South Florida            175 70  -1  8.2  4.9 Norfolk State           
 53 38   4 10.7  5.5 North Carolina           176 60  -2  8.8  4.6 McNeese State           
 54 48   4  9.4  6.1 Illinois                 177 **  -2  9.7  4.1 Jacksonville            
 55 16   4 11.0  5.3 Georgia Tech             178 16  -2  8.5  4.7 Northwestern State      
 56 75   4 10.0  5.8 Iowa State               179 28  -2  9.7  4.1 Tennessee State         
 57 33   4 10.6  5.5 North Carolina State     180 31  -2  8.8  4.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 58 66   3  9.7  5.9 Southern Methodist       181 61  -2  8.9  4.5 Lafayette               
 59 62   3 10.7  5.4 Northwestern             182 52  -2  8.7  4.6 Villanova               
 60 46   3  9.6  5.9 Louisville               183 41  -2  8.7  4.6 Florida Atlantic        
 61 34   3  9.4  6.0 North Dakota State       184 70  -2  7.8  5.0 Bucknell                
 62 41   3 10.1  5.6 Pittsburgh               185 **  -2  9.0  4.3 Pennsylvania            
 63 85   3  9.9  5.7 Oregon State             186 **  -2  8.2  4.8 Drake                   
 64 38   3 10.4  5.4 Ohio                     187 33  -2  8.9  4.4 Memphis                 
 65 87   3 10.4  5.5 California - Los Angeles 188 61  -2  9.0  4.3 South Alabama           
 66 42   3 10.3  5.5 San Diego State          189 41  -2  8.7  4.4 New Mexico              
 67 24   3 11.1  5.1 Air Force                190 77  -2  8.2  4.7 Dartmouth               
 68 29   3 10.3  5.5 Arkansas State           191 80  -2  8.6  4.5 Yale                    
 69 32   3 10.2  5.5 Montana                  192 65  -2  9.8  3.9 Cornell                 
 70 59   3 10.3  5.4 Purdue                   193 80  -2  8.5  4.5 Alabama State           
 71 48   3 10.9  5.1 Navy                     194 64  -3  9.2  4.1 Colgate                 
 72 94   3 11.0  5.1 Washington State         195 38  -3  8.9  4.3 Coastal Carolina        
 73 16   3  9.6  5.8 Central Florida          196 **  -3  9.3  4.0 Bryant                  
 74 48   3 10.0  5.5 Connecticut              197 27  -3  8.8  4.3 Western Illinois        
 75 30   3 11.8  4.7 Texas Tech               198 19  -3  9.0  4.1 Presbyterian            
 76 66   3 10.8  5.1 Utah State               199 65  -3  9.0  4.1 Texas - San Antonio     
 77 43   3 10.1  5.4 Sam Houston State        200 29  -3  9.2  4.0 Akron                   
 78 26   3 11.3  4.9 Western Michigan         201 78  -3  8.9  4.1 Florida A&M             
 79 50   2  9.9  5.5 Virginia                 202 **  -3  8.8  4.2 San Diego               
 80 57   2 10.1  5.4 Syracuse                 203 **  -3  8.8  4.1 Hampton                 
 81 67   2 11.2  4.8 Louisiana - Lafayette    204 31  -3  8.9  4.1 Eastern Illinois        
 82 52   2  9.1  5.8 Boston College           205 53  -3  8.4  4.4 Georgia State           
 83 72   2 10.3  5.2 Wake Forest              206 17  -4  9.8  3.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 84 31   2 10.4  5.1 Georgia Southern         207 81  -4  8.6  4.1 Monmouth                
 85 64   2  9.5  5.5 Marshall                 208 15  -4  8.9  3.9 Northern Colorado       
 86 33   2  9.5  5.5 Northern Iowa            209 15  -4  8.4  4.1 North Carolina A&T      
 87 66   2 10.9  4.8 Harvard                  210 27  -4  8.6  4.0 Idaho State             
 88 67   2  9.2  5.7 Miami - Ohio             211 80  -4  9.1  3.8 Central Connecticut     
 89 47   2  9.3  5.5 Florida International    212 97  -4  8.5  4.1 Grambling               
 90 65   2 10.0  5.2 Wyoming                  213 63  -4  8.1  4.3 Wagner                  
 91 53   1 10.5  4.9 Hawaii                   214 **  -4  8.3  4.1 Dayton                  
 92 91   1  9.9  5.2 Colorado                 215 68  -4  8.5  4.0 Sacred Heart            
 93 86   1  9.8  5.2 Minnesota                216 59  -5  9.4  3.3 Campbell                
 94 54   1  9.4  5.5 Kentucky                 217 88  -4  7.6  4.3 Alabama A&M             
 95 47   1 10.6  4.9 East Carolina            218 83  -5  8.3  3.9 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 96 70   1 11.0  4.7 Fresno State             219 14  -5  8.9  3.6 Southeast Missouri State
 97 85   1  9.9  5.1 San Jose State           220 59  -5  9.0  3.5 Prairie View            
 98 69   1  9.8  5.2 Army                     221 34  -5  8.8  3.6 Columbia                
 99 83   1  9.6  5.3 Western Kentucky         222 15  -5  9.6  3.1 Western Carolina        
100 55   1 10.1  5.0 Texas - El Paso          223 83  -5  7.9  4.0 Robert Morris           
101 80   1  9.7  5.2 Mississippi              224 15  -5  8.3  3.8 Fordham                 
102 75   1 10.2  4.9 Ball State               225 14  -5  8.3  3.8 Austin Peay             
103 49   1  9.9  5.1 Bowling Green            226 33  -5  7.6  4.1 Howard                  
104 86   1 10.0  5.0 Rice                     227 34  -5  8.0  3.9 Morgan State            
105 86   1  9.8  5.1 North Texas              228 78  -5  7.3  4.3 Marist                  
106 64   1 10.3  4.9 Duke                     229 55  -5  8.0  3.9 Southern                
107 49   1  9.9  5.0 Maine                    230 14  -5  8.0  3.9 Gardner - Webb          
108 45   1  9.6  5.2 Northeast Louisiana      231 61  -6  9.7  2.9 Morehead State          
109 55   1 10.5  4.7 Maryland                 232 30  -6  8.5  3.5 Princeton               
110 43   1 10.1  4.9 Wofford                  233 24  -6  9.9  2.7 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
111 35   1  9.1  5.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga  234 21  -6  9.0  3.1 Lamar                   
112 28   1  9.9  5.0 Southern Utah            235 71  -6  8.3  3.5 Butler                  
113 17   1 10.1  4.9 Montana State            236 12  -6  8.6  3.3 Nicholls State          
114 74   1 10.0  5.0 Lehigh                   237 10  -6  8.0  3.6 Virginia Military       
115 39   1 10.5  4.7 California Poly          238 59  -6  8.1  3.5 Texas Southern          
116 41   0  9.3  5.2 Illinois State           239  9  -7  9.1  2.9 Charleston Southern     
117 53   0  8.8  5.5 Kent State               240 38  -7  8.1  3.3 North Carolina Central  
118 40   0 10.6  4.6 Youngstown State         241 56  -7  7.7  3.5 Alcorn State            
119 48   0 10.4  4.6 Towson                   242 11  -7  7.2  3.5 Mississippi Valley State
120 42   0 10.7  4.5 New Hampshire            243 38  -8  7.8  3.1 Delaware State          
121 76   0 10.5  4.6 Kansas                   244 52  -7  6.8  3.7 Davidson                
122 45   0  8.7  5.5 James Madison            245  7  -9  7.7  2.9 Savannah State          
123 70   0 11.0  4.3 Old Dominion             246  6 -10  7.8  2.5 Valparaiso              

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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