2011 Week 3 (15-17 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91% 111 Purdue                  59 31.4,   173 Southeast Missouri Sta   0 11.8
 91%  64 Cincinnati              59 49.5,   189 Akron                   14 13.2
 90%  14 Arkansas                38 50.0,    90 Troy State              28 19.4
 90%   5 Alabama                 41 53.1,   154 North Texas              0  0.0
 89% 163 Old Dominion            45 34.3,   207 Hampton                 42 16.8
 89%  50 Texas Tech              59 47.7,   179 New Mexico              13 15.0
 89%  15 Florida                 33 34.4,    37 Tennessee               23 21.3
 89%  13 Texas A&M               37 45.0,    97 Idaho                    7 11.8
 88% 210 Alcorn State            39 41.5,   244 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 10.5
 88%   9 Texas Christian         38 50.6,   128 Northeast Louisiana     17  6.5
 88%   2 Stanford                37 36.8,    22 Arizona                 10 18.9
 87%  67 Kansas State            37 29.2,   123 Kent State               0 11.7
 87%  11 Virginia Tech           26 43.3,    86 Arkansas State           7 10.0
 87%   1 Oregon                  56 68.5,   150 Missouri State           7  7.6
 86% 152 Jacksonville State      37 40.7,   219 Georgia State           21 16.6
 86%  82 Wake Forest             48 45.2,   213 Gardner - Webb           5  7.8
 86%  42 South Florida           70 46.1,   201 Florida A&M             17  0.0
 86%  27 California              63 59.3,   214 Presbyterian            12  3.7
 85% 200 Duquesne                49 59.3,   245 Valparaiso              14  8.4
 85% 124 Lehigh                  34 47.7,   227 Princeton               22 16.7
 84% 194 Dayton                  24 33.5,   229 Marist                  10 12.9
 84% 144 Elon                    23 42.4,   236 North Carolina Central  22 10.1
 84% 112 Richmond                34 30.7,   220 Virginia Military       19  0.0
 84%  51 Georgia Tech            66 43.0,    91 Kansas                  24 26.7
 84%  46 Michigan                31 59.6,   203 Eastern Michigan         3 13.3
 84%  25 Southern California     38 32.3,    66 Syracuse                17 14.1
 84%  21 Missouri                69 37.9,   125 Western Illinois         0  4.7
 84%  16 Nebraska                51 35.6,    45 Washington              38 20.7
 83%  99 Appalachian State       41 66.3,   243 Savannah State           6  5.2
 83%  84 Southern Mississippi    52 46.9,   187 Southeast Louisiana      6 17.3
 83%  80 Southern Methodist      40 39.1,   180 Northwestern State       7 10.3
 82% 197 Memphis                 27 44.0,   228 Austin Peay              6 23.9
 82%  26 Georgia                 59 49.4,   139 Coastal Carolina         0 14.8
 81%  23 Baylor                  48 57.8,   116 Stephen F. Austin        0 27.0
 81%   8 Wisconsin               49 47.2,    48 Northern Illinois        7 27.8
 80% 145 Murray State            58 38.8,   211 Tennessee State         27 15.7
 80% 141 Louisiana - Lafayette   38 40.2,   196 Nicholls State          21 21.6
 80%  68 Delaware                45 49.2,   221 Delaware State           0  4.3
 80%  34 Nevada - Reno           17 47.0,   136 San Jose State          14 21.6
 79% 190 Bryant                  26 31.1,   235 Sacred Heart             6 13.6
 79% 184 Yale                    37 29.0,   222 Georgetown              27 14.3
 79%  72 Fresno State            27 42.3,   176 North Dakota            22 11.6
 79%  10 Oklahoma State          59 45.7,    54 Tulsa                   33 29.9
 78%   3 Boise State             40 44.4,    57 Toledo                  15 20.6
 75% 205 Norfolk State           23 39.5,   242 Howard                   9 16.3
 75% 114 Massachusetts           36 28.4,   132 Rhode Island            27 21.4
 75%  19 South Carolina          24 37.4,    29 Navy                    21 28.9
 74%  85 Ohio                    44 29.7,   107 Marshall                 7 21.9
 73% 134 Maine                   31 37.2,   204 Albany                  15 20.7
 73% 127 Texas - El Paso         16 30.8,   164 New Mexico State        10 24.6
 73%  36 North Carolina          28 36.4,    60 Virginia                17 25.4
 72%  69 Colorado                28 32.1,   143 Colorado State          14 15.5
 71% 188 Jackson State           28 41.8,   232 Southern                24 24.7
 69% 174 Jacksonville            37 50.7,   225 Charleston Southern     30 29.4
 68% 138 Youngstown State        34 45.4,   177 Illinois State          27 30.4
 68%  87 Western Michigan        44 27.8,   120 Central Michigan        14 17.3
 68%  40 Iowa                    31 29.4,    47 Pittsburgh              27 23.5
 66% 166 California - Davis      31 30.5,   209 San Diego                3 13.0
 66% 130 Indiana                 38 28.2,   156 South Carolina State    21 19.9
 66% 110 Southern Utah           45 52.1,   241 Texas - San Antonio     22  0.0
 65% 170 Central Connecticut     28 32.6,   206 Wagner                  24 25.0
 63%  43 San Diego State         42 41.1,    59 Washington State        24 32.3
 61%  31 Utah                    54 19.6,    56 Brigham Young           10 16.3
 61%   4 Oklahoma                23 34.7,    17 Florida State           13 27.0
 59% 178 Dartmouth               37 28.9,   182 Colgate                 20 25.4
 58% 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy  50 33.7,   238 Morehead State          49 30.1
 58% 193 Fordham                 21 23.3,   195 Columbia                14 19.9
 58% 167 Tennessee Tech          31 26.4,   186 Eastern Illinois        20 22.9
 58%  62 Houston                 35 41.1,    92 Louisiana Tech          34 35.0
 58%  20 Illinois                17 35.6,    24 Arizona State           14 31.1
 58%   7 Louisiana State         19 31.0,    18 Mississippi State        6 25.6
 56% 105 Tennessee - Chattanoog  23 26.6,   135 Eastern Kentucky        14 23.9
 56%  53 Texas                   49 21.7,    65 California - Los Angel  20 19.6
 55% 149 Ball State              28 21.6,   137 Buffalo                 25 20.3
 55% 126 Sam Houston State       31 27.4,   122 Central Arkansas        10 25.0
 55%  38 Notre Dame              31 22.4,    33 Michigan State          13 20.7
 54% 119 Montana                 17 27.9,   104 Eastern Washington      14 27.0
 52%  81 Vanderbilt              30 30.3,    75 Mississippi              7 29.5

 49% 165 Brown                   21 27.3,   171 Stony Brook             20 27.8
 49% 155 California Poly         48 26.1,   140 South Dakota State      14 26.3
 46% 230 Cornell                 24 21.8,   226 Bucknell                13 22.4
 45% 108 Wyoming                 28 30.3,   115 Bowling Green           27 31.9
 44% 215 Idaho State             50 30.3,   192 Northern Colorado       20 33.6
 44% 168 Holy Cross              30 20.9,   151 Harvard                 22 23.0
 44% 109 James Madison           27 22.1,   117 Liberty                 24 23.9
 44%  88 Army                    21 27.2,    74 Northwestern            14 29.0
 44%  71 Louisville              24 16.2,    76 Kentucky                17 18.2
 44%  61 Iowa State              24 27.0,    63 Connecticut             20 29.5
 43% 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   36 25.0,   217 Prairie View            29 28.0
 43% 102 Minnesota               29 20.6,    78 Miami - Ohio            23 23.2
 43%  55 Penn State              14 19.6,    49 Temple                  10 23.3
 42% 212 Alabama State           31 15.5,   185 Grambling               17 19.4
 41%  30 West Virginia           37 24.0,    28 Maryland                31 28.2
 39% 169 Indiana State           44 26.0,   153 Western Kentucky        16 34.8
 38% 157 Tulane                  49 22.1,   133 Alabama - Birmingham    10 30.8
 32%  35 Miami - Florida         24 18.0,    12 Ohio State               6 23.9
 31%  41 Clemson                 38 26.7,     6 Auburn                  24 42.0
 28% 181 Portland State          31 22.5,   106 Northern Arizona        29 39.4
 27% 158 Weber State             49 27.4,    94 Sacramento State        17 37.7
 25% 198 Monmouth                20 10.6,   113 Villanova                9 36.6
 23% 231 Morgan State            13 13.6,   183 Robert Morris           12 30.8
 16%  95 Duke                    20 18.3,    70 Boston College          19 28.5
 16%  77 Florida International   17 21.0,    32 Central Florida         10 32.4
 12% 218 Lafayette               37  8.6,   121 Pennsylvania            12 39.2
 12% 161 Nevada - Las Vegas      40 18.9,    44 Hawaii                  20 47.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               29 0.86  15 1.12  20 1.06  37 1.05   4 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105  78  76.2 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net