prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 22 Ohio State 37 35.3, 86 Colorado 17 11.0
90% 45 Michigan State 45 37.0, 130 Central Michigan 7 9.3
90% 2 Boise State 41 47.6, 52 Tulsa 21 13.5
89% 95 Wofford 38 32.8, 155 Samford 23 15.8
88% 34 South Florida 52 41.5, 125 Texas - El Paso 24 10.9
88% 4 Wisconsin 59 57.3, 128 South Dakota 10 5.1
87% 154 Towson 42 36.6, 186 Colgate 17 22.6
87% 88 Georgia Southern 52 43.1, 178 Western Carolina 20 14.7
87% 62 Houston 56 58.2, 215 Georgia State 0 14.0
87% 40 Iowa 45 37.3, 110 Northeast Louisiana 17 11.8
87% 25 Illinois 23 36.4, 76 Western Michigan 20 15.0
87% 15 Auburn 30 54.8, 163 Florida Atlantic 14 8.3
87% 10 Virginia Tech 30 37.9, 116 Marshall 10 6.0
86% 219 Prairie View 43 39.1, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 34 11.0
86% 150 Jacksonville State 28 36.3, 183 Eastern Illinois 21 21.2
86% 142 Bethune - Cookman 35 42.7, 199 Hampton 31 22.0
86% 113 Sam Houston State 48 30.6, 180 New Mexico 45 15.3
86% 102 Northern Iowa 38 31.7, 157 Western Illinois 10 14.9
86% 79 Southern Methodist 42 38.5, 194 Memphis 0 12.0
86% 3 Oregon 56 40.6, 29 Arizona 31 21.9
85% 184 Jacksonville 57 37.9, 237 Campbell 21 20.6
85% 75 Arkansas State 53 38.0, 148 Central Arkansas 24 18.2
85% 23 Baylor 56 49.9, 106 Rice 31 19.8
84% 69 Hawaii 56 39.7, 165 California - Davis 14 13.8
84% 51 Air Force 63 49.2, 214 Tennessee State 24 1.8
84% 44 Penn State 34 45.0, 193 Eastern Michigan 6 0.0
84% 17 South Carolina 21 38.8, 71 Vanderbilt 3 15.7
83% 136 Furman 62 44.4, 213 Presbyterian 21 19.1
83% 27 Mississippi State 26 41.8, 96 Louisiana Tech 20 16.3
82% 164 South Carolina State 69 34.0, 222 Delaware State 0 10.3
82% 158 Tennessee Tech 38 32.6, 206 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 15.2
82% 19 Florida 48 34.9, 87 Kentucky 10 15.0
82% 11 Nebraska 38 42.1, 100 Wyoming 14 15.6
82% 9 Texas Christian 55 62.9, 151 Portland State 13 14.5
81% 185 Yale 37 33.7, 227 Cornell 17 16.9
81% 138 Rhode Island 21 33.0, 189 Fordham 17 14.4
81% 73 Troy State 38 41.9, 131 Middle Tennessee State 35 24.6
80% 161 Coastal Carolina 31 47.2, 240 North Carolina A&T 14 13.2
79% 80 East Carolina 28 49.9, 172 Alabama - Birmingham 23 22.4
79% 58 Northern Illinois 47 45.7, 123 California Poly 30 24.4
78% 67 Delaware 27 42.1, 159 Old Dominion 17 16.3
78% 7 Alabama 38 34.8, 18 Arkansas 14 22.2
77% 66 Connecticut 17 27.4, 139 Buffalo 3 13.1
77% 20 Georgia 27 41.0, 89 Mississippi 13 20.5
76% 196 Florida A&M 38 34.8, 234 Southern 33 18.2
76% 119 Northern Arizona 20 41.5, 190 Idaho State 3 18.9
76% 117 Weber State 45 46.4, 217 Northern Colorado 21 22.6
76% 5 Oklahoma 38 35.2, 12 Missouri 28 19.4
74% 181 Bryant 30 27.6, 207 Wagner 28 19.4
72% 229 Morgan State 14 34.3, 242 Howard 9 20.1
72% 223 San Diego 48 31.8, 239 Morehead State 44 22.9
72% 115 San Jose State 34 27.8, 156 New Mexico State 24 16.3
69% 220 Georgetown 52 22.4, 231 Marist 28 17.3
69% 203 Duquesne 41 40.2, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 25.6
68% 160 McNeese State 48 36.7, 182 Southeast Louisiana 27 23.9
68% 93 Duke 48 37.8, 129 Tulane 27 25.9
66% 83 Boston College 45 26.5, 107 Massachusetts 17 15.9
65% 209 Texas Southern 14 32.0, 218 Alcorn State 7 25.9
64% 6 Louisiana State 47 31.0, 31 West Virginia 21 18.8
63% 195 Akron 36 29.1, 216 Virginia Military 13 21.0
62% 153 Elon 18 25.7, 170 The Citadel 15 16.7
62% 127 Southern Illinois 20 36.1, 149 Missouri State 18 28.2
61% 212 Drake 24 22.9, 226 Butler 14 18.0
61% 174 Stony Brook 37 31.7, 192 Lafayette 20 23.7
59% 41 Texas Tech 35 38.3, 47 Nevada - Reno 34 32.4
58% 146 Villanova 30 26.1, 201 Pennsylvania 21 12.9
57% 121 Lehigh 27 37.1, 118 Liberty 24 33.9
57% 38 Georgia Tech 35 33.8, 37 North Carolina 28 30.4
57% 32 Notre Dame 15 26.8, 50 Pittsburgh 12 23.9
57% 8 Oklahoma State 30 38.4, 13 Texas A&M 29 35.0
56% 211 Norfolk State 33 34.3, 225 Charleston Southern 3 29.9
56% 140 Indiana State 37 39.5, 145 Youngstown State 35 36.1
56% 92 Montana State 36 26.9, 108 Eastern Washington 21 24.9
56% 78 Fresno State 48 30.8, 99 Idaho 24 28.4
56% 24 Arizona State 43 30.3, 21 Southern California 22 28.2
55% 105 Appalachian State 14 33.4, 97 Tennessee - Chattanoog 12 32.0
51% 101 New Hampshire 45 23.7, 112 Richmond 43 23.4
50% 104 James Madison 20 14.0, 114 William & Mary 14 14.2
47% 90 North Dakota State 37 23.2, 98 Minnesota 24 24.3
45% 124 Southern Utah 41 29.6, 122 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 32.8
45% 49 Michigan 28 33.5, 35 San Diego State 7 35.2
45% 28 Clemson 35 24.3, 14 Florida State 30 25.9
44% 179 Northwestern State 34 24.7, 187 Nicholls State 0 26.2
44% 175 Illinois State 20 27.3, 162 South Dakota State 13 30.0
44% 168 Harvard 24 25.5, 144 Brown 7 27.8
44% 147 North Texas 24 29.5, 120 Indiana 21 32.1
44% 60 Cincinnati 44 31.0, 46 North Carolina State 14 33.1
43% 205 Albany 44 23.1, 204 Columbia 21 26.4
42% 133 Sacramento State 42 24.4, 103 Montana 28 28.1
42% 68 Syracuse 33 27.2, 53 Toledo 30 29.7
40% 177 Monmouth 24 26.4, 169 Central Connecticut 12 32.0
40% 48 Washington 31 32.4, 30 California 23 35.7
39% 94 Rutgers 38 28.7, 64 Ohio 26 33.3
39% 70 Southern Mississippi 30 25.9, 63 Virginia 24 31.3
38% 81 California - Los Angel 27 20.9, 72 Oregon State 19 27.0
35% 198 Alabama State 21 21.7, 188 Jackson State 14 27.1
32% 56 Temple 38 22.4, 36 Maryland 7 33.7
28% 137 Ball State 48 20.1, 91 Army 21 27.6
27% 173 Tennessee - Martin 48 24.9, 132 Murray State 26 34.1
26% 111 Bowling Green 37 19.9, 85 Miami - Ohio 23 30.6
25% 74 Brigham Young 24 14.7, 42 Central Florida 17 23.3
23% 228 Bucknell 34 16.1, 210 Princeton 9 29.4
22% 55 Kansas State 28 17.2, 26 Miami - Florida 24 31.7
21% 243 Savannah State 33 17.0, 230 North Carolina Central 30 36.1
20% 143 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 20.5, 61 Florida International 31 43.6
19% 200 Texas State - San Marc 35 17.8, 134 Stephen F. Austin 26 39.9
17% 232 Austin Peay 23 7.3, 135 Eastern Kentucky 17 38.3
17% 152 Colorado State 35 12.6, 57 Utah State 34 39.5
16% 238 Sacred Heart 24 9.9, 167 Dartmouth 21 35.9
16% 236 Alabama A&M 20 8.9, 191 Grambling 14 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
27 0.86 18 1.04 22 0.90 41 1.01 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 77 79.9 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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