prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 48 Nevada - Reno 45 38.1, 84 Fresno State 38 22.8
91% 7 Alabama 37 38.7, 36 Tennessee 6 13.2
90% 213 Grambling 30 36.0, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 12.3
90% 31 Houston 63 44.4, 91 Marshall 28 19.8
90% 28 Florida State 41 32.5, 53 Maryland 16 19.9
89% 40 Toledo 49 36.6, 109 Miami - Ohio 28 11.3
88% 201 Drake 50 49.9, 246 Valparaiso 0 3.0
88% 171 Jacksonville 56 46.0, 244 Davidson 13 4.2
88% 115 Harvard 56 47.3, 236 Princeton 39 6.3
88% 66 Brigham Young 56 45.1, 202 Idaho State 3 3.7
88% 17 Texas Christian 69 61.0, 191 New Mexico 0 6.9
88% 2 Boise State 37 56.6, 60 Air Force 26 17.0
88% 1 Louisiana State 45 41.2, 25 Auburn 10 14.7
87% 198 Duquesne 37 29.9, 234 Wagner 21 13.5
87% 196 Dartmouth 37 29.8, 229 Columbia 0 15.1
87% 132 Eastern Kentucky 33 35.9, 182 Tennessee State 22 19.5
87% 78 Northern Iowa 17 29.8, 161 Southern Illinois 10 6.3
87% 51 Iowa 45 41.3, 117 Indiana 24 18.2
87% 18 Virginia Tech 30 31.6, 88 Boston College 14 3.8
86% 192 Lafayette 45 25.8, 204 Fordham 24 16.6
86% 63 Georgia Southern 48 60.2, 214 Presbyterian 14 13.6
86% 47 Arizona 48 33.6, 65 California - Los Angel 12 23.7
86% 30 Kansas State 59 44.6, 108 Kansas 21 23.6
86% 3 Stanford 65 47.5, 27 Washington 21 22.3
85% 86 Montana State 31 49.5, 212 Northern Colorado 21 17.6
85% 62 Hawaii 45 42.5, 146 New Mexico State 34 18.1
85% 4 Oregon 45 55.2, 82 Colorado 2 17.9
84% 147 Tennessee - Martin 24 37.1, 197 Eastern Illinois 23 24.4
84% 145 Brown 35 33.0, 211 Cornell 24 15.2
84% 80 Ohio 37 42.1, 183 Akron 20 20.4
84% 70 Arkansas State 34 31.5, 85 Florida International 16 23.9
84% 59 Northern Illinois 31 37.6, 130 Buffalo 30 22.4
84% 39 Penn State 34 27.4, 81 Northwestern 24 16.0
84% 9 Texas A&M 33 43.6, 77 Iowa State 17 21.9
83% 194 Hampton 30 51.1, 242 North Carolina Central 27 19.1
83% 104 Liberty 38 54.5, 235 Charleston Southern 16 18.2
83% 16 Nebraska 41 48.2, 136 Minnesota 14 16.0
82% 177 Stony Brook 42 31.3, 226 Virginia Military 14 14.8
82% 151 Holy Cross 16 28.3, 215 Bucknell 13 11.6
82% 140 Youngstown State 49 66.0, 241 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 20.2
82% 87 North Dakota State 38 28.7, 163 South Dakota State 14 14.2
82% 15 Arkansas 29 42.5, 90 Mississippi 24 19.9
78% 13 Clemson 59 37.4, 38 North Carolina 38 24.7
76% 149 Central Arkansas 38 44.3, 218 Lamar 24 24.5
75% 159 The Citadel 35 35.6, 207 Western Carolina 7 22.9
75% 92 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 33.9, 169 Elon 18 20.2
75% 67 Vanderbilt 44 31.4, 100 Army 21 18.2
73% 116 California Poly 23 32.7, 167 North Dakota 19 24.1
73% 99 Texas - El Paso 31 31.8, 131 Colorado State 17 22.5
72% 102 Maine 23 30.2, 148 Richmond 22 24.2
72% 61 Tulsa 38 39.5, 122 Rice 20 26.8
71% 208 Dayton 30 38.3, 239 Morehead State 28 26.2
70% 114 Kentucky 38 31.3, 134 Jacksonville State 14 23.9
69% 119 Ball State 31 29.8, 135 Central Michigan 27 23.4
68% 144 South Dakota 27 25.8, 162 California - Davis 24 17.7
68% 97 Appalachian State 35 37.8, 127 Samford 17 27.8
67% 188 Monmouth 31 31.1, 219 Sacred Heart 17 21.7
67% 32 Miami - Florida 24 35.4, 43 Georgia Tech 7 28.3
65% 105 Montana 28 25.9, 143 Northern Arizona 24 21.7
64% 180 Albany 63 33.9, 200 Central Connecticut 35 28.8
64% 110 Sam Houston State 38 26.2, 164 McNeese State 14 17.6
63% 186 Stephen F. Austin 57 31.3, 216 Nicholls State 21 23.1
59% 8 Oklahoma State 45 37.8, 11 Missouri 24 34.3
58% 187 Pennsylvania 37 26.5, 181 Yale 25 24.0
58% 96 New Hampshire 27 42.3, 128 Massachusetts 21 35.8
58% 72 Wake Forest 24 36.4, 93 Duke 23 32.2
57% 138 Old Dominion 37 31.2, 157 Villanova 14 28.9
56% 50 Southern Mississippi 27 31.9, 45 Southern Methodist 3 30.4
52% 189 Bryant 34 22.5, 195 Robert Morris 27 22.1
45% 168 Bethune - Cookman 14 24.5, 178 Norfolk State 6 25.5
45% 158 Middle Tennessee State 38 32.0, 172 Florida Atlantic 14 33.7
45% 118 Eastern Washington 42 24.9, 126 Sacramento State 35 26.2
45% 46 Cincinnati 37 30.8, 52 South Florida 34 32.3
44% 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 33.6, 217 Austin Peay 13 35.9
44% 205 Georgia State 27 23.6, 190 South Alabama 20 27.5
44% 137 Illinois State 17 31.7, 112 Indiana State 14 33.8
44% 79 Louisville 16 15.0, 58 Rutgers 14 17.7
43% 125 Towson 38 18.4, 129 William & Mary 27 20.9
43% 124 Southern Utah 35 30.6, 121 Weber State 28 34.2
42% 139 North Texas 38 20.3, 103 Northeast Louisiana 21 24.3
41% 49 California 34 19.0, 26 Utah 10 23.0
40% 71 Oregon State 44 30.4, 57 Washington State 21 34.5
38% 203 Georgetown 40 26.1, 185 Colgate 17 31.0
30% 238 Marist 28 20.1, 233 Butler 10 26.9
30% 179 Missouri State 31 25.8, 165 Western Illinois 17 33.3
28% 210 Southeast Louisiana 38 29.2, 173 Texas State - San Marc 28 39.9
28% 160 Western Kentucky 42 22.3, 98 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 32.8
27% 154 Rhode Island 38 14.7, 107 Delaware 34 22.7
27% 133 Furman 26 22.4, 73 Wofford 21 33.3
27% 111 East Carolina 38 30.7, 69 Navy 35 45.4
26% 74 North Carolina State 28 24.6, 56 Virginia 14 32.6
25% 237 Howard 35 14.2, 206 North Carolina A&T 28 24.3
24% 232 Campbell 48 26.5, 199 San Diego 24 35.1
23% 83 Purdue 21 18.1, 33 Illinois 14 31.6
22% 89 Louisiana Tech 24 29.2, 64 Utah State 17 39.7
22% 68 Syracuse 49 23.3, 21 West Virginia 23 38.2
20% 24 Southern California 31 24.5, 19 Notre Dame 17 30.8
19% 193 Memphis 33 21.7, 174 Tulane 17 31.5
19% 156 Eastern Michigan 14 21.0, 75 Western Michigan 10 38.8
16% 29 Michigan State 37 18.2, 5 Wisconsin 31 34.9
15% 175 Alabama - Birmingham 26 7.3, 55 Central Florida 24 32.6
14% 42 Texas Tech 41 24.4, 6 Oklahoma 38 52.8
12% 223 Gardner - Webb 26 12.2, 170 Coastal Carolina 24 35.0
11% 209 Florida A&M 27 15.5, 152 South Carolina State 24 36.5
11% 113 Bowling Green 13 16.5, 34 Temple 10 36.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.65 14 1.08 22 0.61 47 0.97 3 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 69 79.4 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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