prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 25 Houston 56 61.4, 165 Alabama - Birmingham 13 23.6
91% 16 Georgia 63 51.4, 130 New Mexico State 16 10.1
91% 3 Boise State 48 60.2, 157 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 2.6
90% 54 San Diego State 35 48.8, 202 New Mexico 7 6.3
90% 17 Ohio State 34 48.7, 131 Indiana 20 7.3
89% 226 Marist 30 45.1, 246 Valparaiso 7 8.6
89% 96 Wofford 42 52.8, 217 Western Carolina 24 17.9
89% 8 Wisconsin 62 47.7, 70 Purdue 17 13.5
89% 7 Oklahoma State 52 51.5, 44 Kansas State 45 22.8
88% 129 Liberty 37 45.2, 233 Virginia Military 31 8.5
88% 104 Harvard 35 47.8, 229 Columbia 21 11.7
87% 167 Pennsylvania 37 43.3, 238 Princeton 9 11.2
87% 89 Sam Houston State 38 48.2, 204 Southeast Louisiana 9 19.1
87% 38 Tennessee 24 45.6, 147 Middle Tennessee State 0 11.7
87% 5 Oregon 34 52.4, 34 Washington 17 29.2
87% 2 Stanford 38 48.5, 59 Oregon State 13 17.6
86% 181 South Alabama 35 43.2, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 3 12.0
86% 142 Stony Brook 50 44.3, 237 Charleston Southern 31 15.3
86% 41 Mississippi State 55 43.1, 166 Tennessee - Martin 17 7.2
86% 6 Oklahoma 41 47.3, 18 Texas A&M 25 23.4
84% 63 Southern Methodist 45 40.4, 179 Tulane 24 11.3
84% 52 Iowa State 13 46.1, 140 Kansas 10 21.6
83% 190 Norfolk State 45 35.8, 245 Savannah State 3 4.1
83% 182 McNeese State 26 41.0, 231 Nicholls State 17 16.8
83% 154 Stephen F. Austin 69 46.1, 230 Lamar 10 22.5
83% 139 Northern Arizona 34 41.4, 208 Northern Colorado 14 16.8
83% 23 Michigan State 31 36.3, 111 Minnesota 24 5.3
83% 19 Texas Christian 31 44.8, 90 Wyoming 20 22.4
83% 14 Southern California 42 41.9, 91 Colorado 17 17.8
82% 80 Georgia Southern 14 36.4, 158 The Citadel 12 9.5
80% 92 Miami - Ohio 35 36.2, 177 Akron 3 11.3
79% 108 Lehigh 14 35.6, 171 Holy Cross 7 13.8
79% 51 Air Force 24 41.9, 95 Army 14 23.5
79% 39 Miami - Florida 49 36.3, 88 Duke 14 14.7
78% 188 Texas State - San Marc 34 37.7, 227 Prairie View 26 17.4
78% 66 Arkansas State 39 35.7, 170 Florida Atlantic 21 13.2
78% 26 Texas 52 39.2, 57 Texas Tech 20 19.4
77% 124 Illinois State 31 35.5, 187 Western Illinois 7 15.5
76% 11 Notre Dame 24 39.4, 77 Wake Forest 17 20.6
75% 82 Navy 42 41.1, 127 Troy State 14 26.1
74% 195 Monmouth 48 35.9, 239 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 18.3
74% 174 Bethune - Cookman 49 28.7, 216 Morgan State 23 7.9
74% 27 Florida 26 31.4, 55 Vanderbilt 21 12.2
73% 213 Campbell 41 43.8, 240 Morehead State 31 30.1
73% 84 Northern Iowa 21 36.7, 119 Youngstown State 17 21.4
72% 33 Southern Mississippi 48 38.1, 93 East Carolina 28 23.8
71% 180 Georgetown 30 32.4, 220 Fordham 13 15.7
71% 122 Old Dominion 42 36.2, 164 Richmond 28 22.2
69% 194 Florida A&M 26 33.3, 219 North Carolina A&T 20 19.3
69% 75 North Dakota State 27 35.2, 123 Indiana State 16 22.1
69% 46 California 30 37.5, 71 Washington State 7 25.4
68% 235 Butler 17 29.2, 244 Davidson 7 14.5
67% 94 Montana State 44 38.0, 151 Weber State 24 27.1
66% 15 Florida State 38 26.8, 76 Boston College 7 12.7
62% 102 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 35.0, 128 Northeast Louisiana 35 27.0
61% 196 Alabama State 28 29.5, 228 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 12 20.1
60% 110 New Hampshire 28 29.7, 117 James Madison 10 22.1
59% 135 Portland State 29 36.9, 143 Sacramento State 20 31.5
59% 112 Ball State 33 30.7, 146 Eastern Michigan 31 23.7
58% 214 Alabama A&M 28 25.0, 232 Alcorn State 14 19.8
58% 200 Coastal Carolina 15 35.7, 197 Presbyterian 8 31.0
58% 192 Lafayette 37 31.7, 193 Colgate 24 27.3
58% 191 Dartmouth 33 24.3, 205 Cornell 24 19.5
58% 150 Brown 34 19.1, 183 Yale 28 14.5
58% 45 Tulsa 24 26.6, 65 Central Florida 17 22.4
57% 178 Tennessee State 18 32.1, 199 Eastern Illinois 17 29.5
57% 160 South Dakota State 45 27.9, 155 Southern Illinois 34 25.5
57% 125 Kent State 24 22.1, 136 Central Michigan 21 18.9
57% 107 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 25.7, 137 Samford 9 23.0
57% 32 Cincinnati 26 33.4, 50 Pittsburgh 23 31.5
57% 21 Arkansas 44 28.4, 12 South Carolina 28 25.0
53% 114 Furman 20 27.7, 99 Appalachian State 10 26.8
52% 133 Eastern Kentucky 52 24.5, 156 Jacksonville State 48 23.9
51% 79 Connecticut 28 23.2, 64 Syracuse 21 22.9
50% 241 North Carolina Central 14 30.4, 243 Delaware State 7 30.4
50% 152 Rhode Island 24 22.1, 149 William & Mary 21 22.1
50% 144 Murray State 38 35.3, 159 Tennessee Tech 37 35.3
49% 61 Virginia 31 27.6, 83 Maryland 13 27.9
48% 101 Kentucky 30 27.3, 85 Mississippi 13 27.9
47% 145 Central Arkansas 45 26.2, 153 Northwestern State 20 27.2
46% 225 Wagner 27 21.6, 212 Sacred Heart 21 22.9
44% 121 Western Kentucky 10 22.9, 98 Florida International 9 25.1
43% 222 Central Connecticut 31 24.4, 209 Robert Morris 24 27.3
43% 60 Rutgers 20 25.1, 49 South Florida 17 27.5
43% 28 Utah 34 22.6, 30 Arizona 21 25.4
42% 234 Texas Southern 29 21.4, 224 Southern 15 25.3
42% 120 Rice 41 28.3, 100 Texas - El Paso 37 32.5
42% 118 Idaho 32 18.9, 103 San Jose State 29 25.4
42% 72 Louisiana Tech 41 32.6, 81 Fresno State 21 36.6
42% 68 Utah State 35 31.0, 74 Hawaii 31 35.0
42% 1 Louisiana State 9 24.8, 4 Alabama 6 28.5
41% 198 Drake 31 23.8, 162 Jacksonville 24 30.7
41% 78 Ohio 35 19.1, 43 Temple 31 26.7
41% 69 North Carolina State 13 25.7, 40 North Carolina 0 31.5
40% 53 Iowa 24 23.6, 20 Michigan 16 31.4
38% 169 California - Davis 24 23.6, 115 California Poly 17 32.2
37% 210 San Diego 31 22.6, 207 Dayton 28 32.2
35% 132 Towson 40 24.9, 106 Maine 30 34.9
33% 185 Bryant 31 25.8, 168 Albany 17 36.8
30% 47 Baylor 42 29.8, 10 Missouri 39 41.4
29% 62 Louisville 38 16.4, 36 West Virginia 35 32.5
27% 236 Howard 10 14.0, 206 Hampton 7 32.0
25% 58 California - Los Angel 29 20.6, 9 Arizona State 28 38.2
24% 176 Villanova 35 17.3, 116 Massachusetts 17 36.1
24% 67 Northern Illinois 63 31.0, 37 Toledo 60 45.8
22% 221 Grambling 26 14.9, 172 Jackson State 23 36.4
12% 73 Northwestern 28 20.0, 13 Nebraska 25 47.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
37 0.87 15 0.92 23 0.98 28 1.12 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 75 75.4 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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