prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 166 Bethune - Cookman 59 54.3, 245 Savannah State 3 4.4
91% 107 Appalachian State 46 53.6, 213 Western Carolina 14 16.5
91% 17 Houston 73 62.6, 171 Tulane 17 20.4
91% 1 Louisiana State 42 54.2, 115 Western Kentucky 9 0.0
89% 133 Stephen F. Austin 28 51.7, 206 Southeast Louisiana 20 24.1
89% 8 Wisconsin 42 51.2, 103 Minnesota 13 17.4
88% 173 Bryant 45 50.7, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 34 23.5
87% 140 Murray State 56 46.5, 222 Austin Peay 24 17.9
87% 20 Clemson 31 48.8, 77 Wake Forest 28 23.5
87% 7 Oklahoma State 66 59.1, 68 Texas Tech 6 34.6
86% 167 Jacksonville 34 43.7, 239 Butler 24 15.7
83% 37 Baylor 31 49.5, 123 Kansas 30 28.7
82% 130 Portland State 23 45.7, 207 Northern Colorado 17 24.2
82% 11 Notre Dame 45 39.9, 91 Maryland 21 14.3
81% 157 Jacksonville State 22 44.8, 223 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 24.8
81% 149 Sacramento State 24 38.6, 209 Idaho State 9 16.0
81% 131 Central Arkansas 23 41.5, 193 Texas State - San Marc 22 20.5
80% 212 Hampton 42 35.8, 243 Delaware State 6 9.0
79% 160 South Carolina State 30 35.0, 215 North Carolina A&T 22 11.9
79% 111 Lehigh 34 37.7, 177 Georgetown 12 15.6
79% 86 Sam Houston State 43 32.9, 175 Northwestern State 17 8.3
79% 62 Northwestern 28 45.3, 113 Rice 6 29.0
77% 108 Harvard 37 39.1, 165 Pennsylvania 20 20.3
77% 49 Toledo 66 44.4, 80 Western Michigan 63 29.0
76% 180 Yale 33 37.3, 237 Princeton 24 18.4
76% 13 Southern California 40 41.8, 34 Washington 17 26.2
75% 98 Florida International 41 33.0, 172 Florida Atlantic 7 13.1
75% 61 Brigham Young 42 33.5, 110 Idaho 7 14.5
75% 32 Southern Mississippi 30 32.9, 74 Central Florida 29 13.7
75% 5 Alabama 24 32.2, 36 Mississippi State 7 11.4
74% 198 Florida A&M 31 36.4, 241 North Carolina Central 10 18.9
74% 162 Southern Illinois 45 34.0, 202 Eastern Illinois 28 16.6
74% 145 Stony Brook 76 33.1, 219 Gardner - Webb 28 13.9
74% 57 San Diego State 18 35.4, 141 Colorado State 15 17.8
74% 43 Tulsa 59 34.2, 83 Marshall 17 16.5
74% 12 Georgia 45 38.4, 33 Auburn 7 23.2
73% 16 Arkansas 49 34.7, 41 Tennessee 7 18.8
72% 120 Delaware 24 32.1, 170 Richmond 10 15.0
72% 53 Virginia 31 33.7, 97 Duke 21 17.5
71% 204 San Diego 13 32.8, 231 Marist 7 17.4
71% 66 Utah State 34 37.3, 112 San Jose State 33 23.6
71% 47 Nevada - Reno 42 39.6, 76 Hawaii 28 27.2
70% 197 Coastal Carolina 45 36.3, 236 Charleston Southern 38 22.7
70% 72 Ohio 43 39.7, 136 Central Michigan 28 26.7
69% 67 Arkansas State 30 39.2, 96 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 27.8
69% 25 Utah 31 29.7, 50 California - Los Angel 6 14.5
69% 9 Florida State 23 32.8, 28 Miami - Florida 19 18.7
68% 203 Presbyterian 38 34.6, 229 Virginia Military 6 21.6
66% 56 Northern Illinois 45 43.1, 105 Bowling Green 14 34.1
65% 126 Indiana State 28 39.1, 176 Missouri State 20 29.3
65% 117 Maine 32 34.2, 151 Massachusetts 21 23.5
64% 211 Grambling 29 29.1, 227 Texas Southern 25 17.7
64% 54 Vanderbilt 38 28.8, 89 Kentucky 8 17.5
64% 39 California 23 27.6, 64 Oregon State 6 15.9
63% 205 Cornell 62 30.4, 226 Columbia 41 20.3
63% 192 Drake 37 26.2, 208 Dayton 14 15.1
63% 125 Kent State 35 24.9, 181 Akron 3 13.4
63% 82 Northern Iowa 34 26.5, 106 Southern Utah 21 15.1
63% 48 Temple 24 23.8, 85 Miami - Ohio 21 11.8
62% 232 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 15 28.9, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 3 19.3
62% 190 McNeese State 24 31.1, 200 Texas - San Antonio 21 22.4
62% 134 James Madison 31 25.8, 155 Rhode Island 13 15.6
61% 185 Norfolk State 47 22.9, 220 Morgan State 14 13.0
60% 191 Bucknell 21 26.7, 221 Fordham 0 17.9
60% 168 Holy Cross 29 23.5, 186 Lafayette 24 14.9
60% 121 Northeast Louisiana 42 34.4, 142 Middle Tennessee State 14 27.7
60% 59 Rutgers 27 26.2, 87 Army 12 17.7
60% 55 Louisiana Tech 27 32.2, 94 Mississippi 7 24.8
59% 184 Duquesne 29 27.9, 217 Sacred Heart 15 21.7
59% 18 South Carolina 17 27.4, 27 Florida 12 19.7
58% 183 Jackson State 34 26.7, 214 Alabama A&M 6 22.2
58% 169 Albany 41 27.2, 199 Monmouth 24 23.3
58% 156 South Dakota State 27 32.2, 189 Western Illinois 7 27.7
58% 15 Missouri 17 28.7, 14 Texas 5 23.3
57% 225 Prairie View 40 30.0, 238 Alcorn State 14 27.8
57% 178 Tennessee State 35 34.9, 164 Tennessee - Martin 30 32.5
57% 101 Texas - El Paso 22 33.8, 99 East Carolina 17 30.9
57% 51 South Florida 37 28.5, 71 Syracuse 17 25.1
57% 24 Michigan 31 23.1, 40 Illinois 14 20.5
56% 174 Alabama - Birmingham 41 27.1, 187 Memphis 35 25.1
56% 124 Old Dominion 35 28.5, 153 William & Mary 31 26.7
54% 154 Weber State 34 28.7, 148 Northern Arizona 31 27.6
53% 38 Kansas State 53 35.0, 19 Texas A&M 50 34.3
49% 73 Navy 24 30.4, 69 Southern Methodist 17 30.9
47% 30 Michigan State 37 20.8, 44 Iowa 21 21.9
46% 23 Virginia Tech 37 23.8, 35 Georgia Tech 26 25.0
45% 150 Samford 19 20.8, 152 The Citadel 14 22.6
45% 118 Towson 56 33.2, 104 New Hampshire 42 34.5
44% 88 Boston College 14 17.0, 63 North Carolina State 10 19.6
43% 147 Eastern Michigan 30 23.0, 135 Buffalo 17 25.8
43% 127 North Texas 38 24.0, 137 Troy State 33 27.1
43% 84 Georgia Southern 31 26.9, 95 Wofford 10 29.7
43% 26 Nebraska 17 17.4, 31 Penn State 14 20.9
42% 163 North Dakota 14 17.9, 159 California - Davis 7 22.9
42% 132 Eastern Washington 53 27.6, 129 California Poly 51 32.4
42% 52 Pittsburgh 21 17.6, 58 Louisville 14 22.7
42% 3 Oregon 53 37.1, 2 Stanford 30 40.2
40% 244 Davidson 28 24.0, 235 Morehead State 24 31.3
39% 224 Wagner 38 13.8, 210 Robert Morris 17 23.7
36% 45 West Virginia 24 35.3, 29 Cincinnati 21 43.4
35% 79 Purdue 26 16.3, 22 Ohio State 23 28.9
33% 240 Lamar 34 29.6, 228 Nicholls State 26 40.0
33% 139 New Mexico State 48 31.7, 92 Fresno State 45 41.5
32% 195 New Mexico 21 23.8, 143 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 36.4
32% 158 Tennessee Tech 28 24.0, 128 Eastern Kentucky 21 36.0
29% 194 Dartmouth 21 10.3, 146 Brown 16 28.5
29% 93 Colorado 48 22.6, 42 Arizona 29 36.8
26% 116 Youngstown State 27 18.4, 70 North Dakota State 24 35.6
26% 90 Wyoming 25 22.7, 60 Air Force 17 38.5
25% 233 Southern 26 9.3, 188 Alabama State 23 30.5
20% 179 Elon 41 16.2, 114 Furman 34 38.5
19% 78 Washington State 37 24.9, 10 Arizona State 27 44.4
13% 21 Texas Christian 36 20.9, 6 Boise State 35 46.6
11% 246 Valparaiso 34 16.4, 216 Campbell 31 50.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
30 0.94 31 1.16 31 1.13 18 0.92 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 83 78.7 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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