prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 78 Georgia Southern 35 37.9, 99 Maine 23 23.2
66% 80 North Dakota State 24 32.8, 105 Lehigh 0 21.0
62% 79 Montana 48 27.4, 77 Northern Iowa 10 17.5
62% 71 Navy 27 35.0, 102 Army 21 26.9
60% 86 Sam Houston State 49 31.5, 100 Montana State 13 24.4
57% 213 Grambling 16 22.8, 216 Alabama A&M 15 19.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.71 3 1.58 1 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 6 6 3.8 1.58
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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