2011 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 80%   7 Oklahoma                31 39.4,    42 Iowa                    14 18.1
 79%  13 Texas A&M               33 44.6,    65 Northwestern            22 26.8
 71%  20 Baylor                  67 47.3,    45 Washington              56 36.7
 70%   8 Boise State             56 40.5,    24 Arizona State           24 28.6
 68%  12 Houston                 30 36.1,    31 Penn State              14 23.8
 68%  11 Arkansas                29 40.7,    30 Kansas State            16 30.1
 66%  19 Texas Christian         31 36.0,    43 Louisiana Tech          24 25.0
 65%  36 Mississippi State       23 30.9,    81 Wake Forest             17 19.2
 65%  17 Missouri                41 32.0,    49 North Carolina          24 20.5
 64%  41 Temple                  37 28.6,    85 Wyoming                 15 17.1
 64%  40 Toledo                  42 43.8,    66 Air Force               41 36.2
 60%  10 Michigan                23 28.8,    25 Virginia Tech           20 20.5
 60%   2 Oklahoma State          41 43.5,     5 Stanford                38 38.2
 59%  28 Southern Mississippi    24 32.8,    47 Nevada - Reno           17 27.4
 58%  53 Auburn                  43 27.1,    69 Virginia                24 22.1
 58%  29 Utah                    30 25.9,    48 Georgia Tech            27 21.5
 58%  16 South Carolina          30 27.3,    23 Nebraska                13 23.7
 58%   4 Oregon                  45 44.5,     6 Wisconsin               38 41.1
 56%  22 Texas                   21 22.9,    26 California              10 20.8
 55%  55 Illinois                20 23.1,    61 California - Los Angel  14 21.5
 51%  33 Florida                 24 22.9,    35 Ohio State              17 22.6
 50%  60 Northern Illinois       38 33.8,    58 Arkansas State          20 33.7

 49%  62 North Carolina State    31 20.5,    59 Louisville              24 21.1
 48%  38 Cincinnati              31 25.9,    34 Vanderbilt              24 26.6
 47%  15 Michigan State          33 24.0,    14 Georgia                 30 24.9
 46%  79 Purdue                  37 31.0,    74 Western Michigan        32 32.1
 43%  94 Marshall                20 21.0,    84 Florida International   10 23.8
 43%  76 Ohio                    24 31.5,    67 Utah State              23 33.5
 43%  56 Rutgers                 27 19.5,    44 Iowa State              13 22.2
 43%  32 West Virginia           70 35.3,    27 Clemson                 33 37.1
 43%  21 Florida State           18 21.8,    18 Notre Dame              14 24.2
 42%  50 Brigham Young           24 27.9,    37 Tulsa                   21 31.3
 42%   3 Alabama                 21 22.0,     1 Louisiana State          0 26.7
 41%  77 Southern Methodist      28 19.7,    52 Pittsburgh               6 26.4
 36%  87 Louisiana - Lafayette   32 27.0,    57 San Diego State         30 36.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               21 0.77  11 1.40   3 1.30   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  35  22  21.2 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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