08 Jan 2013: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2012 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 14   8 18.1  4.4 Alabama                  124 41   0 15.5  3.3 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
  2  6   8 19.1  1.4 Oregon                   125 24   0 16.3  0.9 Indiana                 
  3 24   7 17.8  3.8 Louisiana State          126 38   0 15.8  2.1 Southern Mississippi    
  4 42   7 18.2  2.7 Oklahoma                 127 21   0 15.4  3.4 Southern Illinois       
  5 37   6 17.4  4.3 Florida                  128 60   0 15.9  1.9 Rice                    
  6 15   6 17.7  3.5 Florida State            129 25   0 15.9  1.8 Troy State              
  7 47   6 17.7  3.6 Stanford                 130 39   0 15.7  2.1 Hawaii                  
  8 20   7 18.4  1.6 Oklahoma State           131 39   0 15.5  2.7 Western Kentucky        
  9 19   6 17.3  4.4 Notre Dame               132 34   0 15.3  3.3 Dartmouth               
 10 15   6 17.9  2.9 Georgia                  133 62   0 15.6  2.4 Central Arkansas        
 11 24   6 18.3  1.8 Texas A&M                134 20   0 15.5  2.6 Texas - El Paso         
 12 28   6 17.4  3.9 South Carolina           135 15   0 15.1  3.6 Samford                 
 13 42   6 17.8  2.9 Wisconsin                136 18   0 15.7  1.9 Central Michigan        
 14 25   6 17.6  3.0 Southern California      137 31   0 15.6  2.2 Liberty                 
 15 12   6 17.6  3.0 Ohio State               138 45   0 15.5  2.5 Army                    
 16 16   5 17.3  3.5 Boise State              139 41   0 15.4  2.8 Florida International   
 17 12   6 17.6  2.7 Kansas State             140 57   0 15.2  3.5 Eastern Kentucky        
 18 32   5 17.3  3.6 Texas Christian          141 48   0 15.3  3.0 Holy Cross              
 19 13   5 17.8  2.1 Clemson                  142 30   0 15.4  2.5 Southern Utah           
 20 13   5 17.3  3.1 Texas                    143 43   0 15.6  2.1 Colorado                
 21 26   5 17.3  3.0 Michigan                 144 39   0 15.4  2.7 Miami - Ohio            
 22 63   5 17.1  3.3 Missouri                 145 38   0 15.1  3.4 Indiana State           
 23 13   5 17.8  1.5 West Virginia            146 28   0 15.3  2.9 Buffalo                 
 24 33   4 17.0  3.4 Oregon State             147 14   0 15.5  2.2 Furman                  
 25 20   5 17.3  2.6 Arizona State            148 75   0 15.3  2.9 Duquesne                
 26 14   4 17.2  2.9 Nebraska                 149 32   0 15.3  2.8 Lafayette               
 27 33   4 16.6  4.4 Penn State               150 33   0 15.0  3.8 Wagner                  
 28 57   5 18.0  0.6 Baylor                   151 34   0 15.4  2.4 Middle Tennessee State  
 29 48   4 16.5  4.4 Michigan State           152 36   0 15.3  2.5 The Citadel             
 30 36   4 16.8  3.7 Virginia Tech            153 44   0 15.2  2.9 Northern Arizona        
 31 35   4 17.2  2.4 North Carolina           154 31   0 15.5  2.0 Jacksonville State      
 32 31   4 16.8  3.6 Mississippi State        155 24   0 15.2  2.7 Colorado State          
 33 67   4 17.0  2.9 Miami - Florida          156 62   0 15.2  2.8 Bethune - Cookman       
 34 16   4 16.9  3.2 Cincinnati               157 25   0 15.3  2.5 Monmouth                
 35 28   4 17.4  1.8 Arizona                  158 39   0 15.5  1.9 Coastal Carolina        
 36 15   4 16.6  3.8 Brigham Young            159 20   0 15.1  2.9 Princeton               
 37 46   4 16.7  3.7 Utah                     160 56   0 14.9  3.5 Yale                    
 38 69   4 17.0  2.6 Arkansas                 161 16  -1 15.5  1.7 Alabama - Birmingham    
 39 24   4 16.9  2.8 California - Los Angeles 162 32  -1 15.4  1.8 Cornell                 
 40 14   4 17.1  2.2 Northern Illinois        163 30  -1 15.1  2.7 North Texas             
 41 31   4 16.6  3.7 Vanderbilt               164 31  -1 15.1  2.7 Missouri State          
 42 41   3 16.6  3.6 Pittsburgh               165 15  -1 15.2  2.1 Fordham                 
 43 17   4 17.4  1.3 Texas Tech               166 14  -1 15.2  2.1 Elon                    
 44 65   3 17.1  2.2 Georgia Tech             167 19  -1 15.5  1.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 45 21   3 17.0  2.2 Harvard                  168 43  -1 15.0  2.7 Drake                   
 46 75   3 16.4  3.8 North Dakota State       169 54  -1 14.9  3.0 San Diego               
 47 30   3 16.7  3.1 North Carolina State     170 37  -1 15.8  0.1 Murray State            
 48 25   3 17.1  1.9 Tennessee                171 49  -1 15.0  2.6 Sacramento State        
 49 27   3 16.1  4.4 Rutgers                  172 62  -1 15.2  2.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 50 27   3 16.6  3.2 Central Florida          173 32  -1 14.9  3.0 McNeese State           
 51 47   3 16.3  4.0 Iowa State               174 36  -1 15.0  2.4 Massachusetts           
 52 27   3 16.8  2.7 Northwestern             175 31  -1 15.5  0.8 Portland State          
 53 58   3 16.5  3.3 Washington               176 27  -1 15.2  1.8 North Dakota            
 54 14   3 16.6  3.2 Louisville               177 15  -1 14.7  3.3 Georgetown              
 55 50   3 16.2  4.2 Iowa                     178 44  -1 15.0  2.3 Jacksonville            
 56 14   3 16.8  2.3 Tulsa                    179 23  -1 15.0  2.5 California - Davis      
 57 46   3 16.5  3.2 Auburn                   180 87  -1 15.0  2.5 Tennessee State         
 58 65   3 16.5  3.1 California               181 34  -1 15.0  2.2 Texas State - San Marcos
 59 24   3 16.9  2.1 Fresno State             182 40  -1 15.1  1.9 Bryant                  
 60 62   3 16.6  2.9 Syracuse                 183 34  -1 14.9  2.5 Memphis                 
 61 25   3 16.7  2.5 San Diego State          184 95  -1 14.7  3.2 Dayton                  
 62 55   3 16.5  2.9 Utah State               185 20  -1 15.0  2.2 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 63 55   2 16.6  2.4 Mississippi              186 23  -1 14.9  2.6 Florida Atlantic        
 64 45   2 16.5  2.7 Georgia Southern         187 30  -1 14.6  3.4 Robert Morris           
 65 59   2 16.2  3.4 South Florida            188 15  -1 15.1  2.0 Weber State             
 66 14   2 16.9  1.4 Nevada - Reno            189 23  -1 15.1  2.0 Eastern Michigan        
 67 44   2 17.3  0.5 Louisiana Tech           190 35  -1 14.9  2.3 New Mexico              
 68 27   2 16.8  1.5 Toledo                   191 33  -1 15.2  1.5 Central Connecticut     
 69 14   2 16.5  2.4 Purdue                   192 33  -1 14.3  4.2 Bucknell                
 70 26   2 15.9  4.1 Connecticut              193 69  -2 15.1  1.7 Texas - San Antonio     
 71 58   2 15.9  3.9 Boston College           194 22  -2 14.8  2.5 South Dakota            
 72 54   2 16.5  2.4 Arkansas State           195 82  -2 14.9  2.2 Jackson State           
 73 41   2 16.0  3.5 Virginia                 196 29  -2 14.6  3.0 Columbia                
 74 68   2 16.2  2.8 Temple                   197 22  -2 14.9  2.0 Idaho                   
 75 15   2 16.1  3.2 Navy                     198 95  -2 14.6  3.1 Alabama State           
 76 15   2 16.8  1.1 Houston                  199 51  -2 15.2  1.3 Eastern Illinois        
 77 36   2 16.1  3.1 Maryland                 200 35  -2 15.0  1.8 Akron                   
 78 26   2 15.8  3.9 James Madison            201 40  -2 15.1  1.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 79 58   2 16.3  2.5 Sam Houston State        202 56  -2 14.5  3.2 South Carolina State    
 80 15   2 15.9  3.4 Villanova                203 44  -2 14.5  3.0 Sacred Heart            
 81 47   1 15.9  3.4 Minnesota                204 22  -2 14.8  1.8 Tulane                  
 82 15   1 15.9  3.5 Wofford                  205 19  -2 14.6  2.2 South Alabama           
 83 43   1 15.9  3.5 Southern Methodist       206 58  -2 14.9  1.2 Tennessee Tech          
 84 41   1 16.0  3.2 Northern Iowa            207 14  -3 14.7  1.8 New Mexico State        
 85 36   1 16.1  2.9 Lehigh                   208 67  -2 14.4  2.9 Florida A&M             
 86 31   1 15.8  3.6 Maine                    209 76  -3 14.4  2.8 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 87 36   1 16.4  1.9 Appalachian State        210 32  -3 14.5  2.4 Northern Colorado       
 88 31   1 16.5  1.7 New Hampshire            211 16  -3 14.2  3.2 Western Illinois        
 89 74   1 16.9  0.5 Old Dominion             212 30  -3 14.5  2.1 Rhode Island            
 90 53   1 16.0  3.0 San Jose State           213 38  -3 14.1  3.2 Norfolk State           
 91 40   1 16.0  2.9 Kent State               214 60  -3 14.2  2.7 Hampton                 
 92 31   1 16.3  2.2 Towson                   215 95  -3 14.2  2.8 Alabama A&M             
 93 37   1 16.1  2.6 Air Force                216 65  -3 14.0  3.5 Marist                  
 94 43   1 15.9  3.2 Kentucky                 217 14  -3 14.7  1.1 Western Carolina        
 95 51   1 16.4  1.7 Duke                     218 43  -3 14.4  2.0 Southeast Missouri State
 96 45   1 15.9  3.1 Richmond                 219 41  -3 14.4  2.2 Northwestern State      
 97 57   1 16.0  2.6 Albany                   220 13  -3 14.4  1.8 Georgia State           
 98 53   1 15.9  2.9 Wake Forest              221 71  -3 14.8  0.6 Morehead State          
 99 39   1 16.0  2.7 Ohio                     222 27  -3 13.8  3.7 North Carolina A&T      
100 39   1 15.6  3.7 Illinois                 223 44  -3 14.1  2.7 Butler                  
101 34   1 16.2  1.9 East Carolina            224 23  -4 14.1  2.4 Delaware State          
102 42   1 16.2  2.0 Ball State               225 13  -4 14.2  1.9 Southeast Louisiana     
103 40   1 15.9  2.8 Montana State            226 26  -4 14.4  1.1 Prairie View            
104 53   1 15.8  3.0 Stony Brook              227 13  -4 14.1  1.9 Gardner - Webb          
105 27   1 15.7  3.2 Delaware                 228 19  -4 14.1  1.9 North Carolina Central  
106 35   1 16.1  2.2 Eastern Washington       229 33  -4 14.0  2.0 Howard                  
107 66   1 15.7  3.2 Pennsylvania             230 87  -4 14.0  2.0 Southern                
108 29   1 15.5  3.6 Bowling Green            231 91  -4 14.0  1.9 Grambling               
109 25   1 16.0  2.1 Western Michigan         232 40  -5 13.8  2.1 Morgan State            
110 29   1 15.4  4.0 Brown                    233 11  -5 13.9  1.7 Charleston Southern     
111 24   0 16.0  2.3 Youngstown State         234 19  -5 13.9  1.5 Presbyterian            
112 46   0 16.2  1.6 Louisiana - Lafayette    235 35  -5 13.7  2.0 Lamar                   
113 49   0 15.8  2.7 Montana                  236 10  -5 13.4  2.7 Virginia Military       
114 56   0 15.9  2.5 Northeast Louisiana      237 24  -6 13.7  1.5 Austin Peay             
115 51   0 15.9  2.3 California Poly          238  9  -6 13.6  1.8 Nicholls State          
116 40   0 15.4  3.8 William & Mary           239 41  -6 13.5  2.1 Alcorn State            
117 20   0 16.2  1.3 Marshall                 240 25  -5 13.0  3.4 Mississippi Valley State
118 27   0 15.8  2.6 Kansas                   241 17  -6 13.9  0.0 Idaho State             
119 52   0 15.4  3.5 South Dakota State       242 52  -6 13.2  2.5 Davidson                
120 48   0 15.9  2.2 Washington State         243 26  -6 13.4  1.7 Texas Southern          
121 31   0 16.3  1.0 Colgate                  244  9  -7 13.5  1.2 Campbell                
122 26   0 15.8  2.5 Wyoming                  245  7  -8 12.8  1.1 Savannah State          
123 37   0 15.8  2.4 Illinois State           246 16  -9 13.0  0.3 Valparaiso              

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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