prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 95 Richmond 41 40.0, 232 Gardner - Webb 8 6.3
91% 29 Tennessee 51 49.4, 225 Georgia State 13 2.2
91% 6 Florida State 55 72.2, 245 Savannah State 0 0.0
90% 58 James Madison 42 43.8, 234 Alcorn State 3 0.5
90% 50 Louisville 35 42.8, 192 Missouri State 7 9.3
90% 25 Virginia Tech 42 55.3, 239 Austin Peay 7 0.0
89% 180 Alabama State 29 38.4, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 5.6
89% 81 Rutgers 26 41.9, 236 Howard 0 1.9
89% 73 Delaware 38 45.6, 242 Delaware State 14 0.0
89% 64 Arkansas State 33 46.4, 219 Memphis 28 8.9
89% 46 Georgia Tech 59 50.0, 208 Presbyterian 3 9.3
89% 41 California 50 41.4, 198 Southern Utah 31 6.1
89% 18 Oklahoma 69 49.7, 209 Florida A&M 13 0.0
89% 1 Alabama 35 49.4, 138 Western Kentucky 0 0.0
88% 92 Youngstown State 59 58.5, 246 Valparaiso 0 3.3
88% 63 Brigham Young 45 40.6, 194 Weber State 13 10.0
88% 9 Texas Christian 56 55.2, 207 Grambling 0 1.6
88% 7 Louisiana State 41 42.1, 87 Washington 3 10.2
86% 76 Northern Illinois 35 43.1, 204 Tennessee - Martin 7 12.2
86% 65 Tulsa 45 47.3, 202 Tulane 10 15.3
86% 30 Clemson 52 42.4, 141 Ball State 27 14.2
86% 22 Texas 45 45.4, 132 New Mexico 0 12.4
86% 5 Ohio State 31 36.3, 45 Central Florida 16 13.2
86% 2 Oregon 42 60.9, 106 Fresno State 25 15.4
85% 158 Georgetown 13 28.3, 214 Wagner 10 11.3
85% 127 Bowling Green 21 35.3, 211 Idaho 13 12.2
85% 121 Buffalo 56 37.0, 216 Morgan State 34 13.9
85% 67 Marshall 52 51.6, 223 Western Carolina 24 12.9
85% 14 Arizona State 45 35.6, 71 Illinois 14 14.3
85% 10 Notre Dame 20 35.8, 62 Purdue 17 15.3
84% 99 Villanova 28 35.8, 193 Fordham 13 14.9
84% 69 Mississippi 28 37.5, 153 Texas - El Paso 10 17.4
84% 27 South Carolina 48 35.2, 94 East Carolina 10 15.3
83% 167 Elon 34 43.4, 240 North Carolina Central 14 17.1
83% 72 Ohio 51 37.6, 150 New Mexico State 24 18.7
83% 32 Boston College 34 32.0, 80 Maine 3 15.7
82% 61 Texas Tech 58 40.7, 186 Texas State - San Marc 10 19.0
82% 34 Michigan State 41 34.9, 145 Central Michigan 7 16.0
82% 8 Southern California 42 38.0, 59 Syracuse 29 20.5
80% 37 Cincinnati 34 33.0, 77 Pittsburgh 10 19.1
79% 176 Eastern Kentucky 24 37.5, 229 Morehead State 17 19.8
79% 82 Illinois State 31 38.2, 184 Eastern Michigan 14 21.3
77% 147 North Texas 34 40.3, 206 Texas Southern 7 22.5
77% 120 Florida International 41 41.4, 205 Akron 38 19.9
77% 79 Lehigh 35 35.4, 173 Central Connecticut 14 21.4
77% 35 North Dakota State 22 32.9, 156 Colorado State 7 13.0
76% 199 Middle Tennessee State 31 29.6, 226 Florida Atlantic 17 17.1
75% 137 San Jose State 45 26.0, 177 California - Davis 13 15.1
75% 28 Stanford 50 40.6, 78 Duke 13 24.2
74% 90 Southern Methodist 52 35.9, 146 Stephen F. Austin 0 22.7
74% 44 Northwestern 23 32.5, 74 Vanderbilt 13 21.5
74% 23 Mississippi State 28 31.6, 42 Auburn 10 21.0
73% 88 Kentucky 47 27.1, 103 Kent State 14 18.9
73% 85 Albany 35 32.6, 190 Robert Morris 10 17.4
72% 144 Duquesne 17 34.9, 174 Dayton 7 24.0
72% 31 Michigan 31 39.0, 66 Air Force 25 26.1
70% 47 Virginia 17 24.2, 57 Penn State 16 17.5
69% 200 Jacksonville 31 41.2, 238 Charleston Southern 10 28.4
68% 213 South Alabama 9 36.5, 235 Nicholls State 3 23.8
67% 140 Washington State 24 30.4, 163 Eastern Washington 20 22.1
67% 117 Western Michigan 52 33.4, 155 Eastern Illinois 21 23.8
66% 161 South Dakota State 31 35.3, 215 Southeast Louisiana 14 25.0
66% 104 San Diego State 42 25.9, 122 Army 7 20.2
66% 75 Old Dominion 45 41.3, 166 Hampton 7 27.5
64% 109 Miami - Ohio 30 33.0, 133 Southern Illinois 14 25.7
61% 178 North Dakota 45 32.7, 188 Portland State 37 26.9
61% 152 Monmouth 41 27.0, 148 Rhode Island 6 22.7
61% 119 Jacksonville State 27 30.4, 128 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 25.3
60% 143 Central Arkansas 42 40.1, 197 Murray State 20 33.9
60% 130 Montana State 34 25.7, 169 Drake 24 22.3
50% 162 Bucknell 19 17.7, 181 Marist 17 17.7
49% 89 Louisiana Tech 56 33.2, 100 Houston 49 33.7
46% 159 South Dakota 31 29.2, 129 Colgate 21 30.4
44% 112 Appalachian State 35 27.5, 83 Montana 27 28.7
41% 170 Northern Arizona 17 28.3, 171 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 31.1
41% 97 Toledo 34 28.1, 98 Wyoming 31 30.7
40% 131 Bethune - Cookman 27 24.1, 139 South Carolina State 14 27.1
39% 218 Alabama A&M 14 20.6, 221 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 23.4
39% 38 South Florida 32 25.5, 39 Nevada - Reno 31 29.8
39% 36 Kansas State 52 27.6, 11 Miami - Florida 13 32.4
38% 228 Saint Francis - Pennsy 39 29.3, 187 Bryant 28 38.3
38% 56 North Carolina State 10 22.9, 51 Connecticut 7 27.2
38% 26 Florida 20 26.5, 24 Texas A&M 17 32.1
37% 116 Lafayette 17 17.0, 123 William & Mary 14 20.9
36% 55 Oregon State 10 26.0, 20 Wisconsin 7 33.6
35% 19 Georgia 41 26.7, 12 Missouri 20 33.8
34% 54 Iowa State 9 18.3, 52 Iowa 6 23.0
33% 154 Rice 25 28.5, 111 Kansas 24 38.0
32% 108 Minnesota 44 25.4, 53 New Hampshire 7 34.6
30% 49 California - Los Angel 36 22.5, 13 Nebraska 30 31.2
27% 164 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 24.8, 124 Troy State 24 37.1
26% 217 Tennessee State 38 21.1, 165 Jackson State 12 32.7
26% 175 Indiana 45 21.7, 134 Massachusetts 6 33.9
20% 114 Utah State 27 16.9, 33 Utah 20 31.9
19% 182 Coastal Carolina 47 18.5, 118 Furman 45 35.3
19% 70 Arizona 59 23.0, 4 Oklahoma State 38 46.0
18% 185 Sacramento State 30 18.9, 125 Colorado 28 34.0
17% 243 Lamar 31 19.9, 189 Prairie View 0 42.3
17% 183 Norfolk State 31 16.3, 126 Liberty 24 31.3
17% 151 The Citadel 23 16.5, 48 Georgia Southern 21 33.4
17% 101 Wake Forest 28 14.7, 17 North Carolina 27 34.5
16% 105 Maryland 36 13.7, 43 Temple 27 32.1
15% 149 Northeast Louisiana 34 14.8, 16 Arkansas 31 46.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.30 28 0.78 20 1.13 44 0.91 5 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 71 78.4 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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