2012 Week 3 (13-15 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%  62 North Carolina State    31 45.9,   234 South Alabama            7  3.7
 91%  55 Purdue                  54 42.3,   182 Eastern Michigan        16 11.9
 91%  42 Nevada - Reno           45 42.9,   194 Northwestern State      34  7.2
 91%  29 Central Florida         33 39.6,   123 Florida International   20 14.0
 91%  17 Boise State             39 42.7,   111 Miami - Ohio            12 10.4
 91%  16 Nebraska                42 45.5,    97 Arkansas State          13 17.5
 91%  14 Florida State           52 40.6,    86 Wake Forest              0 13.8
 91%  13 Kansas State            35 49.8,   143 North Texas             21  9.4
 91%   7 Georgia                 56 56.3,   220 Florida Atlantic        20  0.0
 91%   2 Louisiana State         63 55.7,   206 Idaho                   14  0.0
 90%  91 Hawaii                  54 46.8,   237 Lamar                    2  8.1
 90%  70 Vanderbilt              58 43.3,   219 Presbyterian             0  7.4
 90%  53 Illinois                44 52.3,   242 Charleston Southern      0  2.2
 90%  20 South Carolina          49 49.2,   193 Alabama - Birmingham     6  5.1
 89% 177 Tennessee State         34 37.8,   233 Austin Peay             14 15.1
 89% 103 Duke                    54 48.0,   239 North Carolina Central  17 10.9
 89% 101 Illinois State          54 42.4,   199 Eastern Illinois        51 18.3
 89%  74 Tulsa                   66 52.0,   243 Nicholls State          16  4.0
 89%  69 Iowa State              37 36.0,   204 Western Illinois         3  7.0
 89%  67 Lehigh                  17 40.0,   192 Princeton               14 10.0
 89%  46 Penn State              34 31.8,    96 Navy                     7 15.9
 89%  44 Harvard                 28 46.2,   197 San Diego               13  9.9
 89%  31 Cincinnati              23 53.2,   232 Delaware State           7  0.9
 89%   3 Ohio State              35 39.5,    38 California              28 17.0
 88% 138 Dartmouth               35 33.3,   227 Butler                   7  9.0
 88%  85 Delaware                19 30.7,   167 Bucknell                 3 10.3
 88%  43 Michigan                63 46.0,   181 Massachusetts           13 11.6
 88%   4 Oregon                  63 64.7,   163 Tennessee Tech          14 12.9
 87% 141 Duquesne                45 48.3,   246 Valparaiso              17  7.7
 87% 140 Samford                 44 28.5,   222 Gardner - Webb          23 12.0
 87% 107 Richmond                47 38.0,   238 Virginia Military        6  7.6
 87%  90 Wofford                 49 44.5,   211 Western Carolina        20 15.9
 87%  27 Mississippi State       30 41.4,   156 Troy State              24 16.9
 87%  23 Arizona                 56 39.9,   139 South Carolina State     0  8.4
 87%  22 Texas Tech              49 57.5,   161 New Mexico              14 17.4
 86% 168 Sacramento State        28 36.5,   228 Northern Colorado       17 17.3
 86% 104 New Hampshire           43 41.4,   179 Central Connecticut     10 21.0
 86%  71 Old Dominion            70 55.9,   226 Campbell                14 15.5
 86%  45 Auburn                  31 36.7,   120 Northeast Louisiana     28 15.1
 86%  26 Clemson                 41 49.0,   125 Furman                   7 19.7
 86%  12 Oklahoma State          65 57.7,   116 Louisiana - Lafayette   24 21.1
 85% 113 Monmouth                38 24.8,   210 Wagner                  17 12.3
 85%  65 Iowa                    27 23.2,    92 Northern Iowa           16 13.7
 85%  18 Baylor                  48 51.1,   119 Sam Houston State       23 20.9
 85%  11 Texas Christian         20 43.8,   128 Kansas                   6 14.8
 85%   5 West Virginia           42 41.0,    52 James Madison           12 19.1
 84% 162 Southern Illinois       35 37.7,   216 Southeast Missouri Sta  14 20.9
 84%  76 San Diego State         49 36.0,   160 North Dakota            41 16.2
 84%  36 Miami - Florida         38 42.2,   118 Bethune - Cookman       10 18.2
 84%  10 Texas                   66 33.6,    72 Mississippi             31 18.2
 83% 121 Villanova               31 32.0,   174 Rhode Island            10 18.2
 83%  66 Washington              52 45.4,   170 Portland State          13 20.9
 83%  60 Toledo                  27 42.7,   146 Bowling Green           15 20.4
 82% 105 San Jose State          40 30.5,   152 Colorado State          20 17.7
 82%  78 Fresno State            69 36.2,   126 Colorado                14 21.3
 81%  94 Montana                 34 36.8,   129 Liberty                 14 23.2
 80%  79 Louisiana Tech          56 44.2,   150 Rice                    37 25.7
 80%  35 California - Los Angel  37 46.2,    93 Houston                  6 28.6
 80%  34 Wisconsin               16 37.0,    83 Utah State              14 19.7
 80%  32 Georgia Tech            56 31.8,    51 Virginia                20 21.1
 78% 115 Montana State           43 37.1,   173 Stephen F. Austin       35 22.5
 78%   1 Alabama                 52 33.4,    30 Arkansas                 0 23.3
 77% 106 Maine                   51 32.5,   186 Bryant                   7 19.9
 76% 207 Tennessee - Martin      23 34.6,   223 Southeast Louisiana      6 22.5
 76% 180 Dayton                  20 27.4,   191 Robert Morris           14 20.0
 76% 135 Colgate                 35 33.8,   164 Sacred Heart            14 23.8
 75% 224 Alabama A&M             42 27.0,   235 Prairie View            30 18.2
 75%  48 Utah                    24 26.2,    54 Brigham Young           21 19.6
 74% 175 Columbia                10 25.7,   195 Marist                   9 18.7
 74% 155 South Dakota State      12 29.2,   188 California - Davis       8 18.9
 74%  84 Northern Illinois       41 31.6,   153 Army                    40 20.9
 72% 127 Texas - El Paso         41 31.9,   149 New Mexico State        28 24.2
 71% 114 Yale                    24 24.8,   172 Georgetown              21 17.8
 71%  95 Brown                   24 25.5,   142 Holy Cross              21 19.7
 71%  75 Minnesota               28 32.8,    87 Western Michigan        23 25.4
 70%  64 Syracuse                28 38.1,   102 Stony Brook             17 27.4
 70%  39 Louisville              39 25.6,    40 North Carolina          34 20.4
 69% 209 Jackson State           45 35.4,   236 Texas Southern          35 26.6
 65% 187 Akron                   66 36.0,   203 Morgan State             6 29.9
 65%  37 Texas A&M               48 29.9,    61 Southern Methodist       3 25.3
 64% 200 Florida A&M             44 29.8,   198 Hampton                 20 25.5
 59% 147 Washington State        35 28.7,   171 Nevada - Las Vegas      27 27.2
 59%  19 Missouri                24 33.3,    15 Arizona State           20 31.7
 57%   9 Stanford                21 32.1,     6 Southern California     14 30.7
 54%  56 Northwestern            22 24.5,    47 Boston College          13 24.1
 51%  25 Florida                 37 25.2,    41 Tennessee               20 25.0
 50%  57 Ohio                    27 30.7,    80 Marshall                24 30.7

 47%  21 Notre Dame              20 21.8,    28 Michigan State           3 22.2
 46%  99 Youngstown State        31 28.9,    73 Albany                  24 29.9
 45% 215 Saint Francis - Pennsy  57 33.7,   221 Morehead State          23 35.0
 41% 184 Fordham                 34 25.4,   154 Cornell                 27 27.7
 40% 201 Alabama State           19 23.0,   212 Grambling               18 24.3
 40% 196 Indiana State           27 24.2,   169 Drake                   10 26.7
 40% 130 Ball State              41 31.4,   132 Indiana                 39 34.1
 40%  77 Connecticut             24 20.5,    88 Maryland                21 22.6
 39% 205 Middle Tennessee State  48 26.4,   202 Memphis                 30 30.4
 38% 148 Towson                  20 20.7,   112 William & Mary          17 23.6
 38% 124 Lafayette               28 21.4,    89 Pennsylvania            21 24.8
 37% 231 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   24 21.9,   230 Alcorn State             6 25.5
 35% 225 Texas - San Antonio     38 30.1,   214 Georgia State           14 39.5
 34% 185 McNeese State           35 25.1,   178 Weber State             21 30.8
 32% 208 Murray State            28 28.7,   165 Missouri State          23 40.9
 32% 117 California Poly         24 25.6,    98 Wyoming                 22 33.2
 28% 189 Eastern Kentucky        35 21.1,   151 Coastal Carolina        17 33.2
 19% 136 The Citadel             52 21.0,   108 Appalachian State       28 32.7
 19% 110 East Carolina           24 24.5,    50 Southern Mississippi    14 41.0
 18% 244 Mississippi Valley Sta   6 21.1,   229 Southern                 0 37.4
 15% 131 Western Kentucky        32 16.8,    59 Kentucky                31 35.4
 15%  81 Pittsburgh              35 17.0,    24 Virginia Tech           17 28.8
 12% 100 Rutgers                 23 11.3,    33 South Florida           13 31.5
 11% 240 Howard                  37  7.5,   166 Norfolk State           36 33.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 0.82  15 0.61  17 1.26  53 1.01  13 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111  87  87.0 1.00

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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