2012 Week 6 (4-6 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90% 160 Bethune - Cookman       28 35.3,   231 North Carolina A&T      12  9.4
 90%  92 Lehigh                  35 39.5,   210 Columbia                14 10.0
 89% 142 Liberty                 42 41.4,   228 Gardner - Webb          35 16.6
 89%  24 Kansas State            56 44.5,   123 Kansas                  16 14.6
 88% 187 Alabama State           45 41.2,   238 Texas Southern           0 14.6
 88%  76 New Hampshire           44 46.9,   226 Georgia State           21 16.3
 88%  60 James Madison           13 31.8,   106 Towson                  10 17.6
 87% 197 Alabama A&M             35 29.8,   243 Mississippi Valley Sta   0 13.0
 87% 110 Montana                 40 39.8,   224 Northern Colorado       17 17.5
 87%  71 Georgia Southern        45 44.0,   216 Western Carolina        13 16.4
 87%  54 Central Florida         40 29.8,    99 East Carolina           20 16.7
 87%  28 Harvard                 45 44.4,   133 Cornell                 13 14.3
 87%  21 Wisconsin               31 39.4,    96 Illinois                14 14.6
 87%   2 Oregon                  52 50.3,    57 Washington              21 17.6
 86% 186 Northwestern State      30 41.6,   242 Lamar                   23 14.6
 86% 115 Louisiana - Lafayette   41 44.0,   217 Tulane                  13 18.0
 86%  37 Brigham Young            6 30.9,    90 Utah State               3 14.9
 85% 131 Samford                 38 29.9,   171 The Citadel              7 18.8
 85%  55 Louisiana Tech          58 50.4,   173 Nevada - Las Vegas      31 22.1
 85%  47 Rutgers                 19 22.7,    65 Connecticut              3 14.9
 85%  46 Cincinnati              52 39.4,   134 Miami - Ohio            14 16.6
 84% 195 Dayton                  38 29.3,   241 Davidson                 3 13.1
 84% 104 Stony Brook             49 49.3,   240 Charleston Southern      7  7.6
 84%  73 Houston                 44 40.7,   151 North Texas             21 19.6
 84%  30 Oregon State            19 44.0,   130 Washington State         6 16.4
 84%  29 Penn State              39 27.6,    52 Northwestern            28 17.1
 83% 220 Butler                  56 38.4,   245 Valparaiso              17 18.1
 83%  86 Brown                   17 38.1,   204 Rhode Island             7 17.3
 83%  85 Appalachian State       35 43.0,   158 Elon                    23 22.4
 82% 147 Holy Cross              13 21.9,   184 Bucknell                 6 12.7
 82% 139 Central Arkansas        34 43.2,   235 Nicholls State          14 11.3
 82%  77 Wofford                 20 39.1,   128 Furman                  17 23.5
 82%  74 Ohio                    38 38.5,   132 Buffalo                 31 22.0
 81%  67 Toledo                  50 47.0,   150 Central Michigan        35 24.4
 80%  61 Albany                  31 47.3,   212 Bryant                  14 19.5
 80%  41 Nevada - Reno           35 44.4,   109 Wyoming                 28 25.3
 79% 166 Murray State            52 47.2,   239 Austin Peay             14 24.2
 79%  97 California Poly         45 37.5,   191 Weber State             23 22.8
 79%  69 Fresno State            28 39.1,   165 Colorado State           7 23.6
 79%  33 Michigan State          31 34.2,   121 Indiana                 27 19.2
 79%  19 Clemson                 47 45.2,    68 Georgia Tech            31 25.8
 79%   5 Texas A&M               30 42.5,    72 Mississippi             27 23.1
 78% 205 Portland State          77 47.3,   233 Idaho State             10 28.9
 78%  75 Maryland                19 33.0,   101 Wake Forest             14 23.0
 78%  23 Boise State             40 34.4,    93 Southern Mississippi    14 21.1
 78%   4 Florida                 14 29.2,    10 Louisiana State          6 20.3
 77% 102 Western Michigan        52 37.0,   146 Massachusetts           14 24.2
 77%  83 San Diego State         52 43.9,   144 Hawaii                  14 27.1
 76% 234 Morgan State            45 37.3,   246 Savannah State           6 25.7
 76% 118 Kent State              41 29.7,   178 Eastern Michigan        14 20.7
 76%  25 North Carolina          48 28.9,    32 Virginia Tech           34 21.0
 75% 159 Alabama - Birmingham    52 42.5,   215 Southeast Louisiana      3 26.6
 75% 105 Sam Houston State       51 36.9,   154 Stephen F. Austin       43 27.1
 75%  16 Stanford                54 35.2,    35 Arizona                 48 24.5
 74% 167 Fordham                 38 27.6,   188 Georgetown              31 20.6
 74% 162 Indiana State           31 28.6,   196 Missouri State          17 18.7
 74% 125 Eastern Washington      55 33.8,   156 North Dakota            17 22.8
 74%  18 Notre Dame              41 27.2,    36 Miami - Florida          3 21.2
 74%  15 Southern California     38 26.4,    44 Utah                    28 20.9
 73% 180 Jacksonville            38 36.5,   227 Morehead State          17 25.9
 71%  43 California              43 27.3,    50 California - Los Angel  17 22.3
 71%  20 Ohio State              63 29.8,    22 Nebraska                38 24.4
 70%  39 North Dakota State      48 34.4,    63 Youngstown State         7 24.3
 69% 124 Bowling Green           24 36.9,   189 Akron                   10 28.3
 69%  80 Southern Methodist      17 28.3,   127 Texas - El Paso          0 22.5
 69%  38 Mississippi State       27 30.0,    84 Kentucky                14 24.1
 66% 157 New Mexico              35 32.3,   181 Texas State - San Marc  14 25.1
 64% 170 Jacksonville State      37 37.8,   214 Tennessee Tech          28 31.3
 64% 117 Montana State           48 27.7,   163 California - Davis      41 22.7
 63% 207 Howard                  17 28.2,   208 Florida A&M             10 24.2
 63% 103 Arkansas State          34 31.3,   145 Florida International   20 26.7
 63%  70 Northern Illinois       35 40.4,   113 Ball State              23 34.4
 62% 200 Idaho                   26 32.4,   201 New Mexico State        18 28.9
 60% 140 Dartmouth               34 24.2,   177 Yale                    14 22.1
 60%  78 Northeast Louisiana     31 34.8,   111 Middle Tennessee State  17 31.7
 58%   8 Oklahoma                41 33.1,    26 Texas Tech              20 31.3
 55%  66 Tulsa                   45 39.8,    95 Marshall                38 38.5
 54%   9 South Carolina          35 33.3,     6 Georgia                  7 32.5
 53%  98 Duke                    42 30.1,    87 Virginia                17 29.5

 50% 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   34 24.3,   206 Jackson State           24 24.4
 50% 193 Tennessee - Martin      51 30.7,   172 Eastern Illinois        37 30.7
 49%  31 Michigan                44 31.4,    42 Purdue                  13 31.6
 47% 185 Drake                   38 24.1,   153 San Diego               10 24.4
 44% 169 Tennessee State         23 25.2,   135 Eastern Kentucky        20 26.0
 44%  64 Temple                  37 24.4,    49 South Florida           28 25.1
 40% 182 Wagner                  12 22.1,   194 Sacred Heart             3 23.4
 38% 237 Virginia Military       17 23.2,   225 Presbyterian             7 29.1
 38% 203 Memphis                 14 29.8,   161 Rice                    10 35.0
 36%  82 Syracuse                14 23.6,    53 Pittsburgh              13 26.6
 34% 209 Saint Francis - Pennsy  10 26.5,   179 Robert Morris            3 32.1
 34%  12 West Virginia           48 31.8,     7 Texas                   45 39.0
 27% 232 Prairie View            31 24.9,   222 Grambling               14 32.9
 27% 198 Western Illinois        24 17.3,   152 South Dakota            17 29.5
 25% 183 Sacramento State        27 24.4,   149 Southern Utah           22 32.5
 23% 122 William & Mary          34 16.6,   116 Pennsylvania            28 22.8
 23% 108 Navy                    28 23.2,    79 Air Force               21 34.4
 23%  62 Arkansas                24 24.5,    34 Auburn                   7 35.3
 22% 174 Princeton               35 19.1,   138 Lafayette               14 29.1
 21% 244 Alcorn State            20 19.0,   221 Southern                17 30.3
 21% 120 Maine                   26 18.6,    89 Delaware                 3 29.1
 21%  45 North Carolina State    17 22.0,     3 Florida State           16 37.0
 19% 112 Richmond                28 18.7,    81 Villanova               17 29.4
 15% 230 North Carolina Central  40 15.3,   168 South Carolina State    10 36.0
 14% 164 Army                    34 13.7,    58 Boston College          31 32.0
 13% 229 Delaware State          20 12.6,   192 Norfolk State           17 28.2
 11% 176 Southern Illinois       17 16.8,   100 Illinois State           0 35.7
 11%  59 Vanderbilt              19 11.6,    14 Missouri                15 29.6
 10%  56 Iowa State              37 10.9,    13 Texas Christian         23 30.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 0.67  18 1.12  37 0.96  41 0.97   1 1.11   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108  79  81.8 0.97

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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