2012 Week 9 (23-27 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 215 Hampton                 21 46.2,   246 Savannah State          13  9.4
 92%  96 Sam Houston State       56 42.7,   233 Lamar                    7 12.3
 92%  86 James Madison           28 42.0,   216 Georgia State           21 11.2
 91% 211 Northwestern State      27 34.1,   238 Nicholls State          26 14.3
 91%   3 Oregon                  70 62.7,   146 Colorado                14  9.7
 91%   1 Alabama                 38 36.6,    22 Mississippi State        7 10.2
 90% 203 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   10 34.1,   243 Mississippi Valley Sta   0 10.6
 90% 115 Montana                 70 59.1,   244 Idaho State             24 12.8
 90%   6 Florida State           48 45.0,    72 Duke                     7 14.9
 89% 189 South Carolina State    41 31.9,   232 Howard                  23 11.4
 89% 127 Bethune - Cookman       42 40.6,   221 North Carolina Central  17 16.0
 89%  78 Southern Methodist      44 41.0,   202 Memphis                 13 14.6
 89%  57 Vanderbilt              49 36.2,   177 Massachusetts            7 10.5
 89%   8 Stanford                24 44.2,   120 Washington State        17 10.1
 88%  75 Wofford                 24 36.9,   154 The Citadel             21 17.2
 88%  30 Missouri                33 35.1,    95 Kentucky                10 15.4
 88%  14 Boise State             45 37.1,   125 Wyoming                 14 12.6
 87% 212 Marist                  44 42.4,   245 Valparaiso               7 14.3
 87%  64 San Diego State         24 42.8,   164 Nevada - Las Vegas      13 19.7
 86% 106 Stony Brook             56 44.4,   236 Presbyterian            17 11.7
 86% 104 Bowling Green           24 37.3,   181 Eastern Michigan         3 18.6
 85%  92 Northeast Louisiana     38 45.5,   200 South Alabama           24 21.7
 85%  68 New Hampshire           40 45.9,   214 Rhode Island            20 20.0
 85%  48 Louisiana Tech          28 55.0,   208 New Mexico State        14 24.2
 84% 100 San Jose State          31 35.6,   179 Texas State - San Marc  20 18.0
 84%  90 Appalachian State       38 46.7,   220 Western Carolina        27 22.9
 84%  21 Texas                   21 41.9,   119 Kansas                  17 21.4
 83%  66 Utah State              48 42.7,   204 Texas - San Antonio     17 19.2
 83%  46 Harvard                 31 38.3,   163 Dartmouth               14 17.6
 83%  19 South Carolina          38 34.7,    47 Tennessee               35 20.9
 82% 172 Wagner                  23 24.5,   190 Robert Morris           13 16.2
 82% 124 Indiana State           45 34.9,   199 South Dakota            14 17.9
 81%  65 Fresno State            49 36.6,   160 New Mexico              32 21.4
 81%  34 North Dakota State      23 33.5,   107 Southern Illinois       17 12.3
 81%  16 Clemson                 42 37.4,    76 Wake Forest             13 21.4
 80% 129 Northern Arizona        12 32.8,   217 Northern Colorado       10 18.0
 80%  52 Pittsburgh              47 27.5,    74 Temple                  17 17.9
 79% 219 Butler                  31 30.0,   241 Davidson                20 18.8
 79% 170 Tennessee State         22 38.9,   207 Tennessee Tech          21 25.6
 78%  63 Toledo                  25 39.7,   151 Buffalo                 20 23.8
 77%  81 Houston                 45 44.7,   142 Texas - El Paso         35 27.6
 77%  80 Albany                  23 32.7,   201 Sacred Heart            20 14.7
 77%  41 Northern Illinois       48 34.1,   105 Western Michigan        34 24.3
 76% 152 Central Michigan        35 37.5,   194 Akron                   14 26.7
 76% 116 Montana State           55 39.1,   158 North Dakota            10 27.1
 76%  54 Georgia Southern        39 26.4,   111 Tennessee - Chattanoog  31 18.3
 76%  13 Texas A&M               63 35.0,    53 Auburn                  21 24.5
 75% 229 Morehead State          70 41.6,   242 Campbell                28 28.6
 75% 225 Gardner - Webb          38 30.8,   239 Virginia Military        7 17.7
 75% 168 San Diego               41 24.5,   180 Dayton                   9 18.5
 75% 159 Central Arkansas        34 36.2,   226 Southeast Louisiana     14 22.2
 74% 165 Missouri State          42 30.1,   206 Western Illinois         3 17.7
 73% 222 Southeast Missouri Sta  48 33.8,   237 Austin Peay             27 25.4
 73% 186 Central Connecticut     32 40.4,   213 Saint Francis - Pennsy  30 29.2
 72%  31 North Carolina          43 28.7,    40 North Carolina State    35 22.4
 72%   7 Kansas State            55 45.3,    24 Texas Tech              24 31.6
 69% 121 Colgate                 47 33.2,   187 Bucknell                33 25.7
 69%   9 Oklahoma State          36 41.0,    17 Texas Christian         14 31.2
 66% 145 Jacksonville State      38 43.2,   176 Murray State            35 34.0
 65% 112 Ball State              30 34.4,   149 Army                    22 28.9
 65%  58 Northwestern            28 27.0,    60 Iowa                    17 22.9
 64%  82 Boston College          20 23.7,    70 Maryland                17 21.1
 61% 227 North Carolina A&T      30 20.4,   223 Norfolk State            9 18.5
 61% 197 Alabama State           31 23.3,   209 Alabama A&M             13 20.6
 61%  50 Utah                    49 22.1,    38 California              27 19.9
 60% 157 Middle Tennessee State  38 28.4,   148 North Texas             21 25.5
 59% 103 Arkansas State          50 33.4,   128 Louisiana - Lafayette   27 30.7
 59%  93 Old Dominion            31 35.4,    88 Delaware                26 31.3
 59%  45 Louisville              34 27.7,    36 Cincinnati              31 25.2
 58% 224 Prairie View            49 32.0,   230 Southern                29 29.4
 58% 218 Delaware State          28 24.3,   228 Morgan State            23 22.6
 58% 137 South Dakota State      41 28.1,   132 Youngstown State        28 25.5
 55% 114 Western Kentucky        14 32.0,   139 Florida International    6 30.4
 55%  32 Nebraska                23 29.2,    20 Michigan                 9 28.0
 54% 171 Colorado State          42 29.3,   147 Hawaii                  27 28.4
 53%  61 Central Florida         54 31.6,    85 Marshall                17 31.0
 50% 135 Rice                    44 30.9,   122 Southern Mississippi    17 30.9

 50%  23 Arizona                 39 32.7,    12 Southern California     36 32.8
 49% 136 Cornell                 37 25.7,   123 Princeton               35 25.9
 48%  99 Minnesota               44 26.1,    69 Purdue                  28 26.4
 47%  73 Navy                    56 28.3,    91 East Carolina           28 28.9
 47%  15 Ohio State              35 25.6,    25 Penn State              23 26.1
 45%  51 Iowa State              35 33.0,    42 Baylor                  21 34.4
 43% 169 Portland State          49 30.2,   184 California - Davis      21 32.4
 43% 141 Furman                  31 30.6,   156 Elon                    17 32.5
 42%  87 Air Force               48 33.1,    56 Nevada - Reno           31 35.9
 40% 198 McNeese State           35 30.4,   150 Stephen F. Austin       24 34.1
 40% 195 Tulane                  55 29.0,   153 Alabama - Birmingham    45 32.8
 40% 182 Coastal Carolina        36 29.3,   130 Liberty                 12 33.2
 40% 101 Maine                   24 20.2,   113 William & Mary          10 22.0
 38% 192 Columbia                26 19.6,   162 Yale                    22 22.2
 38% 144 Pennsylvania            20 19.1,   109 Brown                   17 22.1
 38%  43 Brigham Young           41 26.3,    44 Georgia Tech            17 30.8
 37% 240 Texas Southern          23 26.4,   231 Grambling               20 31.0
 34% 167 Fordham                 36 24.0,   161 Holy Cross              32 29.0
 31% 155 Southern Utah           30 25.2,   110 Eastern Washington      27 30.8
 30% 118 Indiana                 31 26.8,    97 Illinois                17 34.4
 29% 193 Florida Atlantic        34 26.0,   126 Troy State              27 34.4
 27%  55 Syracuse                37 23.0,    49 South Florida           36 29.2
 26%  62 Mississippi             30 26.9,    27 Arkansas                27 36.5
 25% 178 Sacramento State        35 25.2,   108 California Poly         29 34.3
 25%  71 Washington              20 21.4,    28 Oregon State            17 29.4
 25%  18 Georgia                 17 24.9,     4 Florida                  9 35.1
 24% 143 Miami - Ohio            23 25.0,    79 Ohio                    20 33.9
 22% 166 Monmouth                28 20.7,   134 Duquesne                27 31.1
 21% 188 Eastern Illinois        24 25.1,   138 Eastern Kentucky         7 38.1
 20% 140 Illinois State          33 17.3,    84 Northern Iowa           21 33.7
 19% 185 Georgetown              20 19.3,   133 Lafayette               17 32.1
 18% 117 Towson                  49 19.0,    83 Villanova               35 30.1
 17%  59 California - Los Angel  45 19.3,    26 Arizona State           43 33.2
 13%  35 Michigan State          16 15.2,    10 Wisconsin               13 32.1
 13%  11 Notre Dame              30 16.0,     2 Oklahoma                13 36.7
  9%  98 Kent State              35 12.5,    33 Rutgers                 23 30.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               22 0.90  19 0.82  30 0.88  32 0.99  10 0.99   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113  77  83.5 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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