2012 Week 10 (1-3 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 226 Norfolk State           33 38.0,   245 Savannah State          21  9.6
 92%  85 Sam Houston State       70 47.1,   228 Southeast Louisiana      0 10.9
 92%  14 Ohio State              52 40.3,    99 Illinois                22 10.8
 90% 113 Brown                   20 26.1,   163 Yale                     0 12.6
 90%  94 Richmond                39 42.5,   209 Rhode Island             0 15.8
 90%  56 Louisiana Tech          51 54.5,   203 Texas - San Antonio     27 21.4
 90%  53 Navy                    24 43.7,   181 Florida Atlantic        17 15.4
 90%  46 Harvard                 69 44.8,   193 Columbia                 0 10.9
 89%  79 Kent State              35 40.5,   202 Akron                   24 14.4
 89%  65 Auburn                  42 41.3,   198 New Mexico State         7 11.3
 89%  55 Utah State              38 41.7,   182 Texas State - San Marc   7 14.6
 89%  43 Northern Illinois       63 48.0,   178 Massachusetts            0 15.8
 89%   6 Notre Dame              29 30.7,    39 Pittsburgh              26 12.3
 88% 166 Stephen F. Austin       40 48.2,   237 Lamar                   26 18.7
 88%  30 Utah                    49 37.9,   108 Washington State         6 15.1
 88%  12 Georgia                 37 40.4,    64 Mississippi             10 17.1
 87% 161 Liberty                 26 44.8,   233 Charleston Southern     12 16.3
 87% 121 Marshall                38 43.3,   210 Memphis                 28 21.2
 87% 101 Stony Brook             45 47.0,   242 Virginia Military        7  3.8
 87%  93 Ohio                    45 39.3,   189 Eastern Michigan        14 18.6
 87%  13 Stanford                48 43.5,   147 Colorado                 0 14.2
 86% 217 Alabama A&M             24 33.0,   234 Southern                23 17.5
 86% 187 McNeese State           42 30.9,   232 Nicholls State          10 15.6
 86% 148 Northern Arizona        50 46.0,   239 Idaho State             10 17.8
 86%  45 Louisville              45 35.4,    92 Temple                  17 18.4
 86%  37 Tennessee               55 47.3,   142 Troy State              48 18.7
 86%   7 Florida                 14 29.5,    23 Missouri                 7 13.3
 84% 104 Northern Iowa           40 32.4,   218 Western Illinois         0 13.6
 83% 134 Bethune - Cookman       24 37.7,   229 Morgan State            13 17.9
 83%  71 New Hampshire           28 35.9,   122 William & Mary          25 21.3
 83%  68 Fresno State            45 46.4,   162 Hawaii                  10 24.0
 82%  60 South Florida           13 29.7,    84 Connecticut              6 19.0
 82%  42 Central Florida         42 32.7,    76 Southern Methodist      17 20.0
 82%  15 Clemson                 56 42.7,    87 Duke                    20 23.6
 82%   5 Oklahoma                35 31.2,    44 Iowa State              20 16.3
 81% 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   49 29.6,   240 Texas Southern           3 17.2
 81% 131 Youngstown State        13 42.3,   204 South Dakota            10 23.9
 80% 105 San Jose State          42 37.1,   196 Idaho                   13 23.2
 79% 222 Morehead State          49 41.2,   241 Davidson                14 24.6
 79%  77 Arkansas State          37 35.6,   167 North Texas             19 22.7
 78% 146 Central Arkansas        35 38.8,   216 Northwestern State      14 19.9
 78%  78 Lehigh                  36 31.7,   157 Holy Cross              35 21.3
 78%  50 Baylor                  41 43.5,   106 Kansas                  14 28.4
 78%  48 North Dakota State      21 33.0,   141 Missouri State          17 17.4
 78%  32 Arkansas                19 40.1,    67 Tulsa                   15 25.9
 77%  86 Old Dominion            53 45.4,   207 Georgia State           27 25.7
 77%  83 Montana State           20 33.7,   159 Sacramento State        17 24.0
 77%  38 Cincinnati              35 33.9,    57 Syracuse                24 23.9
 76% 170 Eastern Kentucky        31 28.4,   215 Southeast Missouri Sta   7 20.4
 76% 133 Wyoming                 45 30.4,   158 Colorado State          31 23.3
 76% 114 Tennessee - Chattanoog  45 39.0,   211 Western Carolina        24 21.7
 76% 110 Montana                 24 35.6,   184 Weber State             21 25.5
 75%  28 Penn State              34 29.8,    80 Purdue                   9 21.6
 75%  24 Michigan                35 29.4,    74 Minnesota               13 21.4
 73% 160 Coastal Carolina        55 33.3,   223 Gardner - Webb          33 22.1
 73% 155 The Citadel             38 31.4,   173 Elon                    24 24.4
 73% 119 Rice                    49 36.9,   192 Tulane                  47 27.3
 73% 118 Colgate                 65 36.7,   143 Lafayette               41 27.3
 73%  52 Vanderbilt              40 26.0,    97 Kentucky                 0 20.7
 72% 205 Jackson State           53 30.0,   230 Grambling               17 22.5
 70% 183 Alabama State           35 32.3,   220 Prairie View            21 25.3
 69%  10 Texas A&M               38 35.7,    26 Mississippi State       13 27.8
 69%   2 Oregon                  62 42.5,    16 Southern California     51 32.4
 67% 115 Eastern Washington      34 34.6,   124 California Poly         17 28.3
 62% 165 Nevada - Las Vegas      35 31.3,   169 New Mexico               7 27.3
 62%   1 Alabama                 21 24.3,     3 Louisiana State         17 21.2
 61% 174 Murray State            49 37.3,   180 Tennessee State         28 32.2
 61% 140 Florida International   28 31.5,   197 South Alabama           20 25.5
 60% 185 Bryant                  34 29.8,   190 Sacred Heart            14 25.4
 60%  41 Miami - Florida         30 26.2,    29 Virginia Tech           12 23.9
 60%  36 Oregon State            36 29.8,    33 Arizona State           26 26.8
 60%   9 Kansas State            44 38.5,     8 Oklahoma State          30 34.0
 59% 172 Eastern Illinois        31 34.2,   201 Tennessee Tech          24 31.3
 58% 103 Western Michigan        42 32.7,   132 Central Michigan        31 30.4
 54% 243 Mississippi Valley Sta  33 21.6,   236 Alcorn State             9 21.1
 52% 221 North Carolina A&T      16 22.1,   206 Florida A&M              3 21.8
 51%  90 Wake Forest             28 21.4,    72 Boston College          14 21.3

 49% 191 Bucknell                27 26.5,   164 Fordham                 24 26.8
 48% 227 North Carolina Central  23 26.1,   219 Delaware State          20 26.7
 48%  19 Texas Christian         39 32.2,    34 West Virginia           38 32.8
 47% 152 Buffalo                 27 22.9,   130 Miami - Ohio            24 23.4
 45% 200 Dayton                  28 23.4,   171 Drake                   13 24.2
 44% 177 Tennessee - Martin      49 27.9,   149 Jacksonville State      47 29.5
 43% 126 Pennsylvania            28 24.0,   136 Princeton               21 25.5
 43%  66 Georgia Tech            33 28.1,    73 Maryland                13 29.8
 43%  22 Texas                   31 35.5,    35 Texas Tech              22 37.9
 41% 117 Illinois State          17 25.4,   120 Indiana State           10 27.9
 41%  47 California - Los Angel  66 32.2,    21 Arizona                 10 36.3
 40% 231 Howard                  20 22.6,   224 Hampton                 10 25.0
 40% 123 East Carolina           48 38.2,    75 Houston                 28 44.6
 39%  20 Nebraska                28 19.7,    25 Michigan State          24 21.7
 36% 194 North Dakota            33 26.5,   138 Southern Utah           29 32.4
 34% 107 Indiana                 24 26.1,    54 Iowa                    21 32.8
 34% 100 Towson                  34 25.4,    89 Delaware                27 31.3
 33% 125 South Dakota State      16 19.9,   112 Southern Illinois       12 26.9
 32% 145 Dartmouth               44 23.1,   135 Cornell                 28 28.5
 32%  58 Washington              21 23.9,    51 California              13 29.5
 30% 127 Samford                 24 21.1,    81 Wofford                 17 25.5
 28% 246 Valparaiso              41 28.7,   244 Campbell                21 42.6
 26% 225 Butler                  19 21.8,   188 Jacksonville            16 29.0
 25% 195 Robert Morris           17 21.0,   137 Duquesne                13 26.3
 24% 176 Alabama - Birmingham    27 29.2,   128 Southern Mississippi    19 42.1
 24% 150 Louisiana - Lafayette   40 28.2,   102 Northeast Louisiana     24 40.1
 23%  95 James Madison           31 17.3,    82 Maine                    7 23.7
 21% 175 Wagner                  30 13.2,    88 Albany                   0 32.1
 21% 151 Middle Tennessee State  34 21.4,   116 Western Kentucky        29 31.7
 21%  91 Appalachian State       31 25.0,    62 Georgia Southern        28 37.3
 20% 154 Army                    41 22.5,    63 Air Force               21 37.0
 17% 214 Northern Colorado       32 20.6,   144 Portland State          28 38.6
 14%  98 Virginia                33 16.8,    40 North Carolina State     6 34.7
 11%  69 San Diego State         21 14.7,    11 Boise State             19 41.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               18 0.60  18 0.87  34 0.93  36 1.03   5 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111  77  82.8 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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