prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 186 Jacksonville 40 46.7, 244 Campbell 14 11.8
92% 145 Bethune - Cookman 49 47.1, 246 Savannah State 7 8.1
92% 70 Georgia Southern 69 45.3, 230 Howard 26 3.5
92% 32 Brigham Young 52 45.3, 198 Idaho 13 6.4
91% 110 Maine 51 37.4, 211 Georgia State 7 13.0
91% 17 Texas 33 32.1, 46 Iowa State 7 14.9
91% 3 Louisiana State 37 33.0, 42 Mississippi State 17 9.6
90% 126 California Poly 70 55.3, 240 Idaho State 14 15.6
90% 101 Eastern Washington 31 38.9, 196 California - Davis 28 16.8
90% 12 Clemson 45 42.7, 84 Maryland 10 14.1
90% 7 Florida 27 44.0, 112 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 8.4
89% 95 Towson 41 41.8, 210 Rhode Island 10 15.2
89% 56 Louisiana Tech 62 44.9, 190 Texas State - San Marc 55 22.5
88% 153 Jacksonville State 38 50.1, 238 Austin Peay 23 17.3
88% 149 The Citadel 27 38.6, 239 Virginia Military 24 11.9
88% 54 Rutgers 28 32.4, 117 Army 7 16.1
88% 41 Texas Tech 41 41.4, 115 Kansas 34 17.9
87% 69 Sam Houston State 52 42.8, 215 Northwestern State 17 15.9
87% 18 Boise State 49 42.6, 158 Hawaii 14 14.5
85% 187 Drake 45 29.1, 217 Butler 20 16.8
85% 173 Eastern Illinois 39 37.1, 221 Southeast Missouri Sta 20 20.8
85% 100 Montana State 65 41.3, 181 Portland State 30 23.0
85% 60 Arizona 56 44.7, 160 Colorado 31 21.6
85% 59 North Dakota State 20 31.3, 127 South Dakota State 17 12.3
84% 97 San Jose State 47 35.2, 204 New Mexico State 7 18.3
84% 78 Northern Iowa 24 31.5, 188 South Dakota 21 15.7
84% 76 Appalachian State 33 39.0, 132 Furman 28 22.5
84% 43 Central Florida 31 35.6, 139 Texas - El Paso 24 18.3
84% 21 California - Los Angel 44 42.2, 130 Washington State 36 18.5
84% 13 Notre Dame 21 29.8, 79 Boston College 6 13.3
83% 163 San Diego 41 41.2, 219 Morehead State 28 22.0
83% 24 Michigan 38 35.0, 51 Northwestern 31 20.2
83% 8 Stanford 27 31.9, 29 Oregon State 23 18.7
82% 129 Youngstown State 31 32.0, 220 Western Illinois 7 17.8
82% 15 South Carolina 38 32.1, 36 Arkansas 20 20.0
82% 2 Oregon 59 49.5, 52 California 17 25.8
80% 5 Oklahoma 42 49.5, 44 Baylor 34 26.9
80% 4 Florida State 28 28.8, 38 Virginia Tech 22 18.6
79% 182 Jackson State 35 33.1, 213 Alabama A&M 21 20.7
79% 118 Wagner 31 27.1, 144 Holy Cross 30 17.8
79% 16 Wisconsin 62 42.6, 104 Indiana 14 22.2
78% 201 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 30.8, 233 Grambling 17 18.7
78% 74 Arkansas State 45 38.4, 124 Northeast Louisiana 23 24.7
78% 39 Cincinnati 34 33.8, 93 Temple 10 23.0
78% 10 Georgia 38 33.0, 50 Auburn 0 22.5
77% 193 Alabama State 31 29.0, 229 Southern 30 20.0
77% 159 Coastal Carolina 65 43.4, 232 Presbyterian 7 22.7
77% 58 San Diego State 28 35.2, 91 Air Force 9 24.1
77% 9 Oklahoma State 55 46.6, 34 West Virginia 34 31.0
76% 90 Southern Methodist 34 31.7, 121 Southern Mississippi 6 23.2
76% 25 Nebraska 32 25.4, 23 Penn State 23 19.8
75% 214 Florida A&M 22 29.5, 225 North Carolina Central 21 19.8
75% 170 Georgetown 10 22.8, 178 Bucknell 3 18.0
75% 19 Southern California 38 41.3, 35 Arizona State 17 29.3
74% 125 Wyoming 28 34.3, 200 New Mexico 23 24.7
74% 116 Samford 26 29.0, 174 Elon 15 22.2
74% 86 Richmond 23 28.7, 103 Delaware 17 22.2
73% 88 Wofford 16 30.0, 114 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 21.0
72% 241 Alcorn State 34 30.5, 242 Texas Southern 24 24.0
72% 227 Norfolk State 30 26.0, 228 Morgan State 0 20.9
71% 176 North Texas 24 32.3, 203 South Alabama 14 23.1
70% 83 Kent State 48 27.3, 131 Miami - Ohio 32 22.5
67% 37 Vanderbilt 27 25.8, 71 Mississippi 26 21.0
66% 89 Old Dominion 41 36.3, 119 William & Mary 31 26.8
65% 177 Dayton 21 22.0, 209 Marist 17 18.1
65% 143 Central Michigan 34 34.7, 191 Eastern Michigan 31 28.5
64% 150 Eastern Kentucky 55 34.0, 154 Murray State 24 28.7
61% 234 Lamar 34 29.9, 237 Nicholls State 24 24.4
60% 223 Delaware State 35 22.6, 222 Hampton 27 20.2
60% 75 North Carolina State 37 26.9, 72 Wake Forest 6 23.4
58% 243 Davidson 28 30.1, 245 Valparaiso 27 27.6
58% 199 Memphis 37 34.4, 197 Tulane 23 30.7
57% 183 Robert Morris 21 21.0, 206 Sacred Heart 17 19.7
57% 22 Missouri 51 32.3, 47 Tennessee 48 29.7
56% 105 Brown 28 19.9, 123 Dartmouth 24 18.9
50% 175 Fordham 36 30.1, 157 Lafayette 27 30.0
50% 61 Tulsa 41 37.9, 80 Houston 7 37.8
49% 231 Charleston Southern 28 29.2, 226 Gardner - Webb 10 29.8
49% 166 Bryant 28 31.9, 184 Central Connecticut 25 32.3
48% 194 Texas - San Antonio 31 28.4, 171 McNeese State 24 29.1
48% 165 Colorado State 33 27.7, 140 Nevada - Las Vegas 11 28.1
48% 11 Kansas State 23 31.5, 20 Texas Christian 10 32.2
46% 92 Villanova 35 23.1, 68 James Madison 20 23.8
45% 133 Albany 38 22.7, 155 Duquesne 31 24.3
44% 192 Massachusetts 22 30.7, 202 Akron 14 32.6
43% 156 Alabama - Birmingham 38 31.9, 120 Marshall 31 34.3
43% 63 Fresno State 52 35.2, 66 Nevada - Reno 36 38.3
42% 205 Tennessee Tech 45 31.2, 172 Tennessee - Martin 44 34.2
42% 85 Minnesota 17 23.9, 96 Illinois 3 26.0
40% 65 Syracuse 45 25.8, 40 Louisville 26 29.3
38% 164 Liberty 28 25.6, 99 Stony Brook 14 33.1
36% 162 Princeton 29 19.6, 167 Yale 7 22.9
36% 106 Colgate 35 33.9, 82 Lehigh 24 43.2
36% 57 Virginia 41 20.9, 30 Miami - Florida 40 25.0
34% 135 Troy State 41 30.0, 67 Navy 31 39.1
33% 208 Columbia 34 26.3, 161 Cornell 17 33.6
33% 49 Washington 34 22.1, 26 Utah 15 26.7
32% 236 Mississippi Valley Sta 22 22.0, 224 Prairie View 20 27.5
31% 218 North Carolina A&T 17 17.9, 189 South Carolina State 7 21.9
29% 151 Buffalo 29 25.3, 94 Western Michigan 24 32.1
29% 77 Connecticut 24 18.9, 45 Pittsburgh 17 24.1
27% 48 Georgia Tech 68 27.2, 28 North Carolina 50 36.4
25% 147 Southern Utah 35 20.8, 141 Northern Arizona 29 25.7
24% 207 Northern Colorado 42 21.2, 179 Weber State 34 31.5
22% 109 Ball State 34 27.6, 64 Toledo 27 42.1
21% 108 Pennsylvania 30 21.7, 27 Harvard 21 37.9
20% 107 Bowling Green 26 19.0, 81 Ohio 14 28.0
20% 6 Texas A&M 29 21.7, 1 Alabama 24 36.6
19% 235 Southeast Louisiana 42 25.7, 168 Stephen F. Austin 27 44.9
19% 185 Florida Atlantic 37 18.9, 134 Western Kentucky 28 32.3
17% 87 Purdue 27 18.3, 55 Iowa 24 29.9
16% 212 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 21.6, 152 Monmouth 31 39.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.67 19 0.73 33 1.00 32 0.99 9 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 77 83.1 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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