2012 Week 14 (29 Nov - 1 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%  29 Oregon State            77 56.4,   239 Nicholls State           3  0.0
 86%  26 West Virginia           59 48.5,   121 Kansas                  10 21.9
 85%   4 Stanford                27 37.9,    44 California - Los Angel  24 16.1
 84% 110 Hawaii                  23 41.9,   201 South Alabama            7 19.4
 84%  76 Arkansas State          45 37.7,   145 Middle Tennessee State   0 21.5
 83%  68 Georgia Southern        24 39.0,   132 Central Arkansas        16 21.3
 80% 105 Eastern Washington      29 29.9,   134 Wagner                  19 19.9
 80%  35 Northern Illinois       44 33.0,    75 Kent State              37 21.5
 80%  12 Florida State           21 37.7,    47 Georgia Tech            15 23.7
 79%  46 North Dakota State      28 31.2,    91 South Dakota State       3 16.5
 78%   1 Alabama                 32 28.4,     5 Georgia                 28 20.3
 75%  81 Sam Houston State       18 38.5,   112 California Poly         16 28.4
 75%  16 Boise State             27 39.4,    66 Nevada - Reno           21 27.1
 74%  82 Old Dominion            63 44.2,   141 Coastal Carolina        35 28.1
 72% 107 Louisiana - Lafayette   35 37.7,   180 Florida Atlantic        21 27.8
 71%  22 Kansas State            42 30.0,    19 Texas                   24 24.2
 66% 183 San Diego               34 21.7,   213 Marist                  10 18.2
 65% 190 Texas State - San Marc  66 33.6,   202 New Mexico State        28 25.5
 65%  92 Montana State           16 29.2,   102 Stony Brook             10 22.8
 65%  33 Cincinnati              34 21.7,    59 Connecticut             17 18.7
 62%  93 Wofford                 23 34.4,    97 New Hampshire            7 29.1
 62%  14 Wisconsin               70 28.9,    20 Nebraska                31 24.6
 59%  36 Pittsburgh              27 23.7,    65 South Florida            3 21.5
 53%  57 Tulsa                   33 30.6,    45 Central Florida         27 29.6
 51%   8 Oklahoma                24 29.9,    13 Texas Christian         17 29.8

 41%  18 Baylor                  41 43.4,     7 Oklahoma State          34 49.8
 24%  63 Louisville              20 18.7,    58 Rutgers                 17 23.1
 20% 126 Illinois State          38 24.5,    84 Appalachian State       37 37.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.35   6 1.56  10 1.18   7 1.03   1 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  28  25  20.4 1.22

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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