7 Jan 2014: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2013 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6   9 17.5  1.9 Florida State           
  2  9   8 16.8  0.7 Baylor                  
  3 12   7 16.7  1.3 Ohio State              
  4 15   7 16.7  1.4 Oregon                  
  5  8   7 16.5  1.4 Oklahoma State          
  6 26   7 16.5  0.8 Texas A&M               
  7  9   6 16.4  2.4 Alabama                 
  8 10   6 16.1  2.1 South Carolina          
  9 14   6 16.1  1.4 Clemson                 
 10 43   6 16.0  1.7 Oklahoma                
 11 31   5 15.9  1.9 Louisiana State         
 12 41   5 15.9  1.2 Georgia                 
 13 24   5 15.7  1.7 Missouri                
 14 43   5 15.6  1.6 Kansas State            
 15 23   4 15.5  1.8 Wisconsin               
 16 31   5 15.6  1.2 Arizona State           
 17 59   4 15.4  2.0 Stanford                
 18 64   4 15.4  1.4 California - Los Angeles
 19 18   4 15.3  2.0 Louisville              
 20 19   4 15.3  1.5 Central Florida         
 21 47   4 15.3  1.3 North Carolina          
 22 39   4 15.2  1.3 Auburn                  
 23 63   4 15.2  2.0 Notre Dame              
 24 28   4 15.2  1.4 Boise State             
 25 28   4 15.2  0.9 Texas Tech              
 26 33   4 15.2  1.2 Arizona                 
 27 33   3 15.1  1.6 Texas                   
 28 20   3 15.1  2.5 Michigan State          
 29 28   3 15.1  1.1 Georgia Tech            
 30 51   3 15.1  1.7 Texas Christian         
 31 46   4 15.3 -0.1 Old Dominion            
 32 21   3 15.1  0.9 Northern Illinois       
 33 50   3 15.0  1.3 Michigan                
 34 47   3 15.0  1.4 Washington              
 35 25   3 15.0  1.3 Nebraska                
 36 53   3 14.9  1.9 Southern California     
 37 30   3 15.0  0.5 Fresno State            
 38 54   3 14.9  1.9 Mississippi State       
 39 26   3 15.0  0.6 Houston                 
 40 27   3 14.9  1.1 Miami - Florida         
 41 54   3 14.9  1.2 Oregon State            
 42 33   3 14.8  1.9 Brigham Young           
 43 45   3 14.8  1.4 Mississippi             
 44 26   3 14.8  0.8 East Carolina           
 45 37   2 14.7  1.5 Utah                    
 46 33   2 14.6  1.5 Vanderbilt              
 47 35   2 14.6  1.4 Cincinnati              
 48 55   2 14.6  1.2 Northwestern            
 49 29   2 14.5  2.0 Iowa                    
 50 23   2 14.5  1.8 Utah State              
 51 37   2 14.6  0.9 Duke                    
 52 45   2 14.5  1.8 Penn State              
 53 71   2 14.5  2.2 Florida                 
 54 31   2 14.4  2.2 Virginia Tech           
 55 44   2 14.4  0.4 Marshall                
 56 52   1 14.4  0.7 West Virginia           
 57 63   1 14.3  1.4 Pittsburgh              
 58 60   1 14.3  0.0 Indiana                 
 59 37   1 14.2  1.4 Syracuse                
 60 36   1 14.2  0.6 Toledo                  
 61 56   1 14.2  0.9 Tennessee               
 62 49   1 14.2  1.2 Boston College          
 63 46   1 14.1  1.4 Maryland                
 64 25   1 14.1  1.2 Navy                    
 65 32   1 14.0  1.5 Minnesota               
 66 39   1 14.1  0.6 San Jose State          
 67 32   1 14.1  0.9 San Diego State         
 68 48   1 14.1  0.7 Ball State              
 69 55   1 14.0  1.1 Iowa State              
 70 52   1 14.0  1.6 Bowling Green           
 71 39   1 14.0  1.2 Rutgers                 
 72 41   1 14.0  0.6 Nevada - Reno           
 73 50   1 14.0  1.1 North Carolina State    
 74 41   0 14.0  0.9 Illinois                
 75 44   0 14.0  0.5 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 76 34   0 13.9  0.9 Arkansas State          
 77 42   0 13.9  0.5 Colorado State          
 78 56   0 13.9  1.1 Arkansas                
 79 34   0 13.7  1.0 Southern Methodist      
 80 41   0 13.7  0.6 Washington State        
 81 30   0 13.5  1.1 Kentucky                
 82 41   0 13.5  1.0 Western Kentucky        
 83 46   0 13.5  0.8 Temple                  
 84 35   0 13.5  0.8 Ohio                    
 85 45   0 13.4  1.0 Buffalo                 
 86 43   0 13.4  0.7 Rice                    
 87 33   0 13.4  0.7 Tulsa                   
 88 41   0 13.4 -0.1 Troy State              
 89 32   0 13.4  0.9 Virginia                
 90 53   0 13.4 -0.0 California              
 91 57   0 13.3  1.3 North Texas             
 92 24   0 13.3  1.1 Kent State              
 93 66   0 13.2  1.1 Texas - San Antonio     
 94 25  -1 13.2  0.4 Wyoming                 
 95 43   0 13.2  0.6 Purdue                  
 96 46   0 13.2  1.1 Connecticut             
 97 28  -1 13.2  0.4 Colorado                
 98 65   0 13.2  0.9 South Alabama           
 99 34  -1 13.1  1.4 Wake Forest             
100 40  -1 13.1  1.2 South Florida           
101 28  -1 13.1 -0.0 Hawaii                  
102 53  -1 13.1  0.8 Middle Tennessee State  
103 28  -1 13.0  0.4 Air Force               
104 32  -1 13.0  0.7 Central Michigan        
105 36  -1 13.0  0.5 Louisiana Tech          
106 55  -1 12.9  1.0 Texas State - San Marcos
107 26  -1 12.9  0.9 Northeast Louisiana     
108 46  -1 12.9  0.4 Nevada - Las Vegas      
109 18  -1 12.9 -0.0 New Mexico              
110 25  -1 12.8  1.0 Kansas                  
111 41  -2 12.7  1.1 Florida Atlantic        
112 37  -2 12.8  0.5 Army                    
113 24  -2 12.7  1.0 Memphis                 
114 45  -2 12.6  0.8 Tulane                  
115 18  -2 12.6  0.5 Akron                   
116 19  -2 12.5 -0.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
117 21  -2 12.5  0.3 Western Michigan        
118 17  -3 12.3  0.3 Texas - El Paso         
119 54  -3 12.2  0.3 Georgia State           
120 20  -3 12.1 -0.0 Southern Mississippi    
121 17  -4 11.8  0.7 Massachusetts           
122 11  -4 11.7 -0.3 Idaho                   
123 10  -5 11.7 -0.6 New Mexico State        
124 12  -5 11.6 -0.4 Eastern Michigan        
125 18  -4 11.5  0.6 Miami - Ohio            
126 13  -5 11.2  0.4 Florida International   

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 10   6 16.3  2.5 North Dakota State      
  2 27   5 15.9  1.3 Harvard                 
  3 50   4 15.5  1.0 Sam Houston State       
  4 32   4 15.4  1.4 Towson                  
  5 49   4 15.3  0.6 Eastern Illinois        
  6 26   4 15.2  1.3 Georgia Southern        
  7 34   3 15.1  1.3 Montana                 
  8 49   3 15.0  1.1 Youngstown State        
  9 27   3 15.0  1.4 New Hampshire           
 10 31   3 15.0  1.0 Eastern Washington      
 11 38   3 14.9  1.8 Villanova               
 12 39   3 14.9  0.5 Coastal Carolina        
 13 33   2 14.7  1.7 Maine                   
 14 21   2 14.7  1.8 James Madison           
 15 28   2 14.7  1.2 Lehigh                  
 16 47   2 14.7  1.0 Princeton               
 17 32   2 14.6  1.9 Northern Iowa           
 18 39   2 14.6  1.0 Delaware                
 19 28   2 14.6  1.2 Jacksonville State      
 20 35   2 14.6  1.0 Montana State           
 21 56   2 14.6  0.8 Fordham                 
 22 44   2 14.5  1.4 San Diego               
 23 16   2 14.4  1.5 Richmond                
 24 40   2 14.4  1.6 South Dakota State      
 25 37   2 14.4  1.8 Brown                   
 26 28   2 14.3  1.5 Liberty                 
 27 32   1 14.3  1.8 Stony Brook             
 28 30   1 14.3  1.5 Sacred Heart            
 29 26   1 14.2  2.4 William & Mary          
 30 54   1 14.3  1.2 Central Arkansas        
 31 31   1 14.3  1.4 California Poly         
 32 56   1 14.3  1.1 McNeese State           
 33 61   1 14.2  1.2 Southeast Louisiana     
 34 57   1 14.1  1.5 Dayton                  
 35 56   1 14.2  0.4 Jacksonville            
 36 43   1 14.1  1.5 Duquesne                
 37 45   1 14.0  1.3 Illinois State          
 38 47   1 14.0  1.6 Bethune - Cookman       
 39 37   1 14.0  1.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 40 32   0 13.9  1.4 Monmouth                
 41 33   0 13.9  1.2 Appalachian State       
 42 15   0 13.9  1.2 Southern Illinois       
 43 45   0 13.9  1.6 Dartmouth               
 44 43   0 13.9  1.2 Pennsylvania            
 45 61   0 13.8  1.7 Drake                   
 46 33   0 13.8  1.2 Samford                 
 47 50   0 13.8  1.9 Tennessee State         
 48 63   0 13.8  1.4 Marist                  
 49 26   0 13.7  1.7 Wofford                 
 50 15   0 13.7  1.1 Furman                  
 51 24   0 13.7  1.2 Lafayette               
 52 41   0 13.7  1.1 Alabama State           
 53 21   0 13.6  1.5 Eastern Kentucky        
 54 40   0 13.6  1.3 Missouri State          
 55 59   0 13.6  1.0 Butler                  
 56 54   0 13.6  0.9 Albany                  
 57 25   0 13.6  0.9 Holy Cross              
 58 63   0 13.6 -0.6 Stephen F. Austin       
 59 34   0 13.5  1.4 Yale                    
 60 18   0 13.5  0.7 Colgate                 
 61 39   0 13.5  1.2 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 62 38   0 13.5  1.0 Bryant                  
 63 24   0 13.5  0.7 Jackson State           
 64 29   0 13.5  1.0 The Citadel             
 65 83   0 13.4  1.6 North Carolina A&T      
 66 32   0 13.4  1.6 Northern Arizona        
 67 47   0 13.5  0.3 Portland State          
 68 60   0 13.4  1.5 Robert Morris           
 69 43   0 13.4 -0.2 Prairie View            
 70 **   0 13.3  1.5 Abilene Christian       
 71 38   0 13.3  1.7 South Carolina State    
 72 34   0 13.4  0.3 Cornell                 
 73 26   0 13.3  0.2 Murray State            
 74 22  -1 13.2  0.8 Sacramento State        
 75 28   0 13.2  1.1 Tennessee - Martin      
 76 31  -1 13.2  0.1 Central Connecticut     
 77 48  -1 13.1  1.5 Southern Utah           
 78 60  -1 13.0  0.6 North Dakota            
 79 36  -1 13.0  1.8 Bucknell                
 80 44  -1 13.0  0.8 Northwestern State      
 81 15  -1 12.9  0.9 Georgetown              
 82 44  -1 12.9  1.1 South Dakota            
 83 34  -1 12.9 -0.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 84 41  -1 12.9  0.5 Southern                
 85 14  -1 12.9  0.4 Tennessee Tech          
 86 50  -1 12.8  1.5 California - Davis      
 87 **  -1 12.8  1.5 Mercer                  
 88 **  -1 12.8  1.2 North Carolina - Charlot
 89 62  -2 12.8  0.7 Hampton                 
 90 50  -2 12.8  0.5 Alcorn State            
 91 17  -2 12.7  0.6 Elon                    
 92 77  -2 12.7  0.8 Lamar                   
 93 38  -2 12.7  0.8 Howard                  
 94 59  -2 12.6  1.0 Charleston Southern     
 95 50  -2 12.6  1.2 Delaware State          
 96 29  -2 12.5  1.4 Wagner                  
 97 14  -2 12.6  0.7 Indiana State           
 98 27  -2 12.5  1.2 Western Illinois        
 99 37  -2 12.5  1.1 Florida A&M             
100 50  -2 12.5  0.9 North Carolina Central  
101 48  -2 12.3  1.5 Norfolk State           
102 23  -3 12.3  0.9 Rhode Island            
103 38  -3 12.3  1.0 Alabama A&M             
104 32  -3 12.2  1.2 Gardner - Webb          
105 21  -3 12.2  0.6 Northern Colorado       
106 16  -3 12.2  0.6 Morgan State            
107 55  -3 12.2 -0.5 Morehead State          
108 **  -3 12.1  1.7 Incarnate Word          
109 13  -3 12.1 -0.2 Western Carolina        
110 14  -3 12.1  0.5 Weber State             
111 15  -3 12.0  0.1 Southeast Missouri State
112 70  -4 11.9  0.1 Campbell                
113 23  -4 11.9  0.8 Columbia                
114 67  -4 11.9  1.1 Mississippi Valley State
115 12  -4 11.9 -0.1 Nicholls State          
116 **  -4 11.6  1.6 Stetson                 
117 24  -4 11.7  0.2 Presbyterian            
118 13  -4 11.7  0.5 Virginia Military       
119 23  -5 11.5  0.1 Grambling               
120  9  -5 11.4 -0.8 Idaho State             
121 31  -5 11.4  0.5 Texas Southern          
122 **  -5 11.1  0.9 Houston Baptist         
123 39  -6 11.0  0.3 Davidson                
124 20  -6 11.0 -0.7 Valparaiso              
125  6  -6 10.7  0.1 Austin Peay             
126  6  -7 10.6 -0.9 Savannah State          

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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