prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 20 Richmond 34 50.8, 247 Virginia Military 0 8.1
82% 17 Texas 56 55.1, 242 New Mexico State 7 10.3
82% 4 Ohio State 40 47.7, 212 Buffalo 20 8.9
82% 1 Oregon 66 63.3, 232 Nicholls State 3 10.7
81% 35 Georgia Southern 77 56.8, 252 Savannah State 9 9.9
80% 19 Wisconsin 45 45.8, 223 Massachusetts 0 9.7
76% 6 Oklahoma 34 47.9, 182 Northeast Louisiana 0 14.8
74% 9 Florida 24 45.4, 153 Toledo 6 15.5
73% 76 Auburn 31 41.4, 220 Washington State 24 15.2
73% 67 Tennessee 45 49.2, 246 Austin Peay 0 16.7
73% 25 Nebraska 37 38.1, 186 Wyoming 34 13.6
72% 53 Miami - Florida 34 40.3, 210 Florida Atlantic 6 14.8
71% 70 Central Florida 38 43.0, 217 Akron 7 16.1
69% 119 Fordham 51 42.9, 233 Rhode Island 26 18.5
69% 64 South Dakota State 55 30.5, 177 Butler 14 12.3
69% 7 Texas A&M 52 54.5, 189 Rice 31 23.2
68% 158 Florida A&M 27 30.7, 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 13.9
68% 121 Minnesota 51 40.6, 225 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 18.8
68% 99 Wagner 28 31.7, 205 Georgetown 21 14.5
67% 188 North Dakota 69 43.1, 251 Valparaiso 10 19.7
67% 167 Wake Forest 31 37.8, 248 Presbyterian 7 16.5
67% 94 Maryland 43 37.9, 206 Florida International 10 18.7
67% 42 Notre Dame 28 34.8, 133 Temple 6 17.3
66% 165 Middle Tennessee State 45 36.3, 221 Western Carolina 24 20.8
66% 152 Prairie View 37 37.6, 243 Texas Southern 13 20.6
66% 87 Michigan State 26 31.4, 148 Western Michigan 13 18.7
66% 44 Missouri 58 45.6, 136 Murray State 14 25.1
66% 39 Cincinnati 42 37.2, 126 Purdue 7 22.1
66% 28 Arizona 35 37.6, 139 Northern Arizona 0 21.8
66% 15 Texas Tech 41 42.0, 124 Southern Methodist 23 25.7
66% 3 Florida State 41 33.8, 80 Pittsburgh 13 19.2
65% 56 Michigan 59 40.5, 164 Central Michigan 9 25.1
65% 49 Utah 30 34.1, 130 Utah State 26 20.2
65% 41 Penn State 23 30.3, 101 Syracuse 17 19.0
65% 8 Alabama 35 29.3, 50 Virginia Tech 10 18.2
64% 90 Maine 23 26.6, 181 Norfolk State 6 17.5
64% 71 Arkansas 34 42.0, 145 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 27.4
64% 43 Louisville 49 35.3, 111 Ohio 7 23.1
64% 38 James Madison 38 37.4, 112 Central Connecticut 14 23.9
64% 26 Southern California 30 40.0, 151 Hawaii 13 25.3
64% 2 Oklahoma State 21 40.6, 52 Mississippi State 3 27.9
63% 132 Marshall 52 36.3, 207 Miami - Ohio 14 26.4
63% 68 Georgia Tech 70 35.4, 127 Elon 0 24.7
63% 24 West Virginia 24 32.7, 79 William & Mary 17 23.6
62% 239 North Carolina - Charl 52 32.2, 249 Campbell 7 14.4
62% 144 Duke 45 35.6, 216 North Carolina Central 0 24.9
62% 110 Troy State 34 40.1, 173 Alabama - Birmingham 31 31.2
62% 77 North Carolina State 40 41.6, 78 Louisiana Tech 14 32.8
62% 57 Fresno State 52 29.6, 118 Rutgers 51 22.1
61% 222 North Texas 40 38.6, 226 Idaho 6 31.8
61% 185 Southern Utah 22 25.6, 244 South Alabama 21 17.7
61% 154 Samford 31 25.9, 234 Georgia State 21 17.8
61% 146 Alabama A&M 23 28.3, 191 Grambling 9 23.3
61% 142 San Jose State 24 28.6, 174 Sacramento State 0 23.0
61% 125 Houston 62 37.9, 168 Southern 13 31.7
61% 59 Northern Iowa 28 23.9, 104 Iowa State 20 20.1
61% 54 Delaware 51 32.1, 88 Jacksonville 35 25.2
61% 51 Sam Houston State 74 37.7, 236 Houston Baptist 0 23.1
61% 48 Central Arkansas 58 31.7, 237 Incarnate Word 7 20.6
60% 60 Montana State 42 32.7, 91 Monmouth 24 27.9
59% 128 Bryant 17 26.9, 147 Holy Cross 16 22.9
59% 14 Clemson 38 31.9, 16 Georgia 35 28.2
58% 31 South Carolina 27 26.8, 33 North Carolina 10 23.8
56% 120 Arkansas State 62 29.3, 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 11 26.8
55% 107 Coastal Carolina 27 27.7, 171 South Carolina State 20 25.7
55% 81 California Poly 38 31.4, 96 San Diego 16 29.2
54% 218 Texas - San Antonio 21 24.0, 208 New Mexico 13 20.9
54% 211 Army 28 27.3, 215 Morgan State 12 25.9
54% 157 Indiana 73 31.9, 199 Indiana State 35 29.9
53% 12 North Dakota State 24 29.4, 22 Kansas State 21 28.0
52% 72 Northwestern 44 28.3, 103 California 30 27.6
52% 69 Bethune - Cookman 12 26.7, 85 Tennessee State 9 25.9
52% 34 Baylor 69 30.6, 65 Wofford 3 29.6
51% 55 Northern Illinois 30 23.7, 93 Iowa 27 23.4
51% 21 Montana 30 33.7, 11 Appalachian State 6 33.2
49% 74 Duquesne 35 26.9, 46 Albany 24 27.1
48% 204 Colorado 41 28.0, 203 Colorado State 27 28.7
47% 195 South Dakota 10 24.5, 176 California - Davis 7 25.5
47% 140 Sacred Heart 37 22.2, 161 Marist 21 23.0
45% 129 Eastern Kentucky 38 21.9, 108 Robert Morris 6 23.6
45% 89 Mississippi 39 28.6, 86 Vanderbilt 35 30.7
44% 66 Youngstown State 28 24.5, 58 Dayton 10 26.6
42% 178 Weber State 50 30.9, 106 Stephen F. Austin 40 34.6
42% 105 McNeese State 53 28.3, 100 South Florida 21 32.7
42% 83 California - Los Angel 58 33.0, 30 Nevada - Reno 20 36.8
41% 163 Tennessee - Martin 31 27.7, 150 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 31.7
41% 92 Jacksonville State 24 23.5, 97 Alabama State 22 26.7
40% 192 Texas State - San Marc 22 27.3, 180 Southern Mississippi 15 32.0
40% 122 Air Force 38 27.9, 47 Colgate 13 32.5
40% 109 Towson 33 22.3, 123 Connecticut 18 26.7
39% 224 Southeast Louisiana 45 25.8, 184 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 32.2
39% 18 Louisiana State 37 22.2, 5 Texas Christian 27 27.4
38% 202 Western Illinois 42 20.3, 141 Hampton 9 26.7
38% 193 Western Kentucky 35 24.7, 138 Kentucky 26 32.1
38% 160 Kent State 17 23.6, 84 Liberty 10 31.3
38% 156 Ball State 51 28.8, 62 Illinois State 28 37.6
37% 245 Eastern Michigan 34 26.2, 201 Howard 24 38.1
37% 200 Northwestern State 23 22.9, 170 Missouri State 17 31.9
37% 172 Illinois 42 21.0, 82 Southern Illinois 34 29.5
37% 149 Eastern Illinois 40 28.2, 95 San Diego State 19 40.1
37% 131 Virginia 19 20.2, 61 Brigham Young 16 28.8
37% 115 Boston College 24 18.8, 27 Villanova 14 28.5
37% 63 Eastern Washington 49 24.2, 32 Oregon State 46 34.1
36% 143 East Carolina 52 25.8, 10 Old Dominion 38 44.4
35% 214 Gardner - Webb 28 25.2, 102 Furman 21 39.8
35% 183 Bowling Green 34 23.9, 36 Tulsa 7 39.3
34% 227 Charleston Southern 32 20.8, 166 The Citadel 29 34.3
32% 134 Washington 38 15.9, 13 Boise State 6 36.8
31% 241 Tulane 34 17.2, 116 Jackson State 7 39.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
28 0.97 68 1.08 7 1.37 6 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 75 69.0 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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