2013 Week 4 (19-21 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%  94 Alabama State           52 41.0,   243 Grambling               21 10.7
 91%  36 Louisville              72 49.3,   241 Florida International    0  5.9
 91%   1 Texas A&M               42 56.6,   116 Southern Methodist      13 23.2
 90%  69 Miami - Florida         77 62.2,   251 Savannah State           7  2.7
 90%  41 Michigan                24 39.2,   193 Connecticut             21 17.8
 90%  22 Northern Iowa           26 45.5,   210 Northern Colorado        7 12.8
 90%   9 McNeese State           43 59.7,   218 Weber State              6 15.2
 90%   3 Baylor                  70 55.1,   142 Northeast Louisiana      7 20.3
 89%  61 Vanderbilt              24 40.4,   232 Massachusetts            7 13.8
 89%  44 Cincinnati              14 48.3,   237 Miami - Ohio             0 11.9
 89%  11 North Dakota State      51 45.8,   201 Delaware State           0  4.8
 89%   6 Louisiana State         35 40.3,    79 Auburn                  21 17.9
 87% 157 Ohio                    38 41.4,   249 Austin Peay              0 14.6
 87%  82 Iowa                    59 39.0,   172 Western Michigan         3 17.5
 87%  68 William & Mary          20 36.6,   214 Rhode Island             0  7.6
 87%  37 Jacksonville State      32 46.2,   224 Georgia State           26 15.1
 87%  28 California - Los Angel  59 56.4,   242 New Mexico State        13  9.7
 87%  25 Wisconsin               41 40.9,   111 Purdue                  10 18.4
 87%  14 Texas Tech              33 42.0,   158 Texas State - San Marc   7 13.5
 87%   8 Ohio State              76 47.9,   200 Florida A&M              0 10.7
 86% 122 Ball State              51 39.8,   220 Eastern Michigan        20 25.8
 86% 119 Washington State        42 45.5,   238 Idaho                    0 18.3
 86% 117 Appalachian State       31 40.6,   236 Elon                    21 20.3
 86%  48 Coastal Carolina        50 45.4,   219 Hampton                 17 19.4
 86%  45 Oregon State            34 40.8,   152 San Diego State         30 26.0
 86%  15 Georgia                 45 47.5,   190 North Texas             21 14.8
 86%   7 Alabama                 31 47.3,   149 Colorado State           6  8.8
 86%   4 Florida State           54 37.7,    90 Bethune - Cookman        6 10.3
 85% 154 Southern Illinois       36 40.3,   246 Southeast Missouri Sta  19 22.6
 85%  74 Washington              56 61.2,   248 Idaho State              0 12.6
 85%  59 Florida                 31 32.5,    81 Tennessee               17 16.1
 85%  47 Syracuse                52 44.4,   207 Tulane                  17 14.2
 84%  77 Penn State              34 30.3,   147 Kent State               0 14.7
 84%  16 Towson                  35 48.1,   211 North Carolina Central  17 19.3
 82%  62 Houston                 31 48.1,   183 Rice                    26 21.2
 81% 141 Virginia                49 33.8,   245 Virginia Military        0  9.3
 81%  23 Lehigh                  29 39.4,   144 Princeton               28 18.9
 80% 104 Tennessee State         41 34.1,   167 Tennessee Tech          21 20.2
 78%  91 Virginia Tech           29 31.9,   102 Marshall                21 19.0
 76% 110 Nevada - Reno           31 37.1,   184 Hawaii                   9 27.2
 76%  89 Louisiana - Lafayette   35 42.0,   191 Akron                   30 29.5
 76%  33 Old Dominion            59 49.3,   160 The Citadel             58 25.9
 76%  32 Missouri                45 42.1,    71 Indiana                 28 30.5
 75% 185 Western Kentucky        58 34.3,   235 Morgan State            17 21.9
 74% 100 Toledo                  38 36.7,   215 Central Michigan        17 22.4
 69% 179 Jackson State           35 36.4,   229 Texas Southern           7 20.7
 69%  99 Pennsylvania            27 32.1,   162 Lafayette               21 18.0
 69%  92 Fordham                 52 35.6,   197 Columbia                 7 22.3
 68% 108 Brown                   45 29.8,   148 Georgetown               7 16.9
 68%  12 Clemson                 26 34.4,    63 North Carolina State    14 28.4
 67% 136 Dartmouth               30 31.3,   196 Butler                  23 19.9
 67%  95 Mississippi State       62 33.7,    88 Troy State               7 25.0
 67%  21 Northwestern            35 33.3,    75 Maine                   21 23.7
 66% 170 Northern Arizona        22 19.7,   212 South Dakota            16 12.8
 66%  18 Harvard                 42 32.5,   128 San Diego               20 17.8
 66%  13 Sam Houston State       52 47.4,   178 Incarnate Word          21 19.9
 65% 103 Central Arkansas        17 33.8,   175 Missouri State          13 25.1
 64% 139 Eastern Kentucky        56 38.7,   176 Morehead State          24 30.3
 64% 101 Delaware                49 30.3,   166 Wagner                   9 21.2
 64%  53 Youngstown State        59 32.4,    73 Duquesne                17 27.9
 64%  31 Georgia Tech            28 34.0,    51 North Carolina          20 27.7
 63%  70 James Madison           34 30.8,   198 North Carolina - Charl   7 17.0
 63%  67 Rutgers                 28 24.7,    76 Arkansas                24 21.2
 63%  55 Nebraska                59 33.8,    58 South Dakota State      20 29.9
 62% 181 Bowling Green           48 34.1,   113 Murray State             7 31.1
 62% 143 Cornell                 45 25.4,   192 Bucknell                13 22.3
 62% 134 Portland State          41 30.0,   209 California - Davis      10 27.5
 62%  96 Villanova               35 24.6,    86 Stony Brook              6 22.7
 62%  38 Stanford                42 30.4,    30 Arizona State           28 26.9
 61% 195 Southern Utah           24 27.4,   225 Sacramento State        21 24.6
 61% 180 Wake Forest             25 27.0,   177 Army                    11 25.4
 60%  39 Maryland                37 32.1,    49 West Virginia            0 30.3
 55%  97 Pittsburgh              58 29.8,   126 Duke                    55 28.6
 55%  24 Utah                    20 27.4,    65 Brigham Young           13 26.7
 52% 137 Illinois State          31 34.7,   202 Abilene Christian       17 32.5
 52%  52 Northern Illinois       43 42.6,    26 Eastern Illinois        39 42.0

 49% 171 Kansas                  13 30.5,   132 Louisiana Tech          10 30.8
 48% 182 Middle Tennessee State  42 22.9,   213 Florida Atlantic        35 23.4
 47%  42 Notre Dame              17 21.7,    50 Michigan State          13 22.4
 45% 189 Prairie View            28 27.4,   217 Alabama A&M             26 28.6
 45% 109 Minnesota               43 24.7,    98 San Jose State          24 25.4
 43% 168 Texas - San Antonio     32 27.1,   164 Texas - El Paso         13 30.0
 39% 129 Richmond                30 21.0,    80 Liberty                 21 22.6
 38% 223 Southern                17 28.5,   233 Mississippi Valley Sta   7 31.8
 38% 187 Alabama - Birmingham    52 32.9,   161 Northwestern State      28 36.7
 38% 123 Wyoming                 56 28.3,   131 Air Force               23 30.3
 38% 115 Monmouth                21 28.3,   133 Holy Cross              14 31.3
 38%  57 Southern California     17 26.5,    27 Utah State              14 29.7
 37% 206 Charleston Southern     20 17.3,   216 Norfolk State           12 22.6
 37% 173 Yale                    39 25.5,   114 Colgate                 22 31.4
 37%  60 Texas                   31 29.6,    35 Kansas State            21 32.1
 37%  40 Fresno State            41 34.0,    54 Boise State             40 38.0
 35% 226 Nevada - Las Vegas      38 21.8,   188 Western Illinois         7 30.9
 34% 240 Alcorn State            21 29.0,   194 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   16 37.6
 17% 138 Stephen F. Austin       52 28.8,    43 Montana State           38 47.3
 14% 227 Gardner - Webb           3  9.9,   118 Wofford                  0 34.5
 14% 165 Southeast Louisiana     34 19.8,   107 Samford                 31 33.3
 14% 153 Central Connecticut     20 25.2,    72 Albany                  17 47.3
 12% 234 Memphis                 31 16.2,    93 Arkansas State           7 40.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.74  39 1.08   7 1.32  37 1.01   6 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  99  76  72.9 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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