prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 42 Boise State 60 49.2, 224 Southern Mississippi 7 10.6
91% 2 Oregon 55 60.5, 117 California 16 19.6
89% 70 Illinois 50 41.5, 241 Miami - Ohio 14 11.1
89% 35 Coastal Carolina 53 48.6, 225 Elon 28 19.9
89% 11 Clemson 56 43.4, 166 Wake Forest 7 13.6
88% 78 Alabama State 49 41.4, 230 Alcorn State 30 13.5
88% 7 Georgia Southern 23 41.5, 113 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 17.6
88% 5 Florida State 48 40.5, 140 Boston College 34 7.1
87% 203 Delaware State 24 48.6, 251 Savannah State 22 20.3
87% 171 Robert Morris 37 32.0, 247 Virginia Military 31 9.2
87% 131 Samford 62 43.4, 227 Western Carolina 23 19.5
87% 71 North Carolina State 48 40.1, 219 Central Michigan 14 11.0
87% 55 Texas Christian 48 32.3, 122 Southern Methodist 17 18.1
87% 41 Oregon State 44 46.8, 172 Colorado 17 21.3
86% 210 Alabama A&M 12 33.1, 239 Texas Southern 10 15.8
86% 141 Bowling Green 31 35.0, 200 Akron 14 17.0
86% 132 San Diego State 26 47.6, 242 New Mexico State 16 23.0
86% 79 Sacred Heart 16 32.2, 215 Bucknell 0 15.9
86% 73 Brigham Young 37 38.1, 197 Middle Tennessee State 10 10.8
86% 58 Florida 24 32.3, 155 Kentucky 7 12.0
86% 44 Missouri 41 38.9, 162 Arkansas State 19 15.2
86% 40 Miami - Florida 49 40.4, 189 South Florida 21 16.5
86% 9 North Dakota State 20 38.2, 95 South Dakota State 0 15.8
85% 4 Ohio State 31 38.9, 24 Wisconsin 24 25.6
85% 1 Texas A&M 45 47.4, 80 Arkansas 33 26.1
82% 20 Youngstown State 28 45.0, 144 Southern Illinois 27 23.9
81% 153 North Carolina A&T 27 30.4, 205 Howard 19 14.4
81% 67 Vanderbilt 52 39.6, 148 Alabama - Birmingham 24 22.6
80% 33 Towson 35 31.2, 108 Stony Brook 21 20.7
79% 26 Fresno State 42 45.2, 191 Hawaii 37 24.9
79% 12 Alabama 25 34.9, 45 Mississippi 0 19.3
78% 231 California - Davis 30 44.5, 248 Idaho State 13 18.8
77% 32 Stanford 55 35.8, 123 Washington State 17 17.9
76% 56 Utah State 40 31.2, 114 San Jose State 12 20.7
75% 146 Colorado State 59 33.1, 184 Texas - El Paso 42 24.0
73% 180 Morehead State 45 38.9, 243 Davidson 14 27.1
73% 165 South Carolina State 30 32.2, 211 Hampton 6 17.4
73% 129 Tennessee - Martin 17 37.4, 236 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 20.7
72% 107 Nevada - Reno 45 38.5, 161 Air Force 42 28.3
72% 81 Tennessee 31 39.7, 190 South Alabama 24 19.7
70% 29 Arizona State 62 31.5, 68 Southern California 41 23.0
69% 23 Lehigh 34 39.9, 49 New Hampshire 27 30.5
68% 163 Kent State 32 32.5, 199 Western Michigan 14 24.7
68% 115 Monmouth 37 32.9, 212 Columbia 14 19.7
68% 72 Montana State 63 37.8, 128 North Dakota 20 30.8
68% 50 Fordham 38 42.8, 136 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 28.6
68% 31 Old Dominion 66 46.3, 100 Albany 10 35.5
68% 15 Harvard 41 34.5, 83 Brown 23 20.1
68% 13 Sam Houston State 49 49.4, 59 Eastern Washington 34 33.9
67% 174 Southern Utah 27 30.4, 213 Northern Colorado 21 23.6
67% 60 Northern Illinois 55 39.1, 116 Purdue 24 32.2
67% 19 South Carolina 28 28.8, 66 Central Florida 25 20.5
66% 164 Jackson State 19 33.3, 216 Southern 14 25.5
66% 121 Duke 38 41.6, 157 Troy State 31 32.5
66% 82 California Poly 38 38.5, 125 Portland State 34 31.8
66% 69 Villanova 35 27.2, 94 Pennsylvania 6 19.4
65% 48 Iowa 23 31.2, 57 Minnesota 7 26.7
64% 228 Norfolk State 27 25.4, 240 Morgan State 21 21.1
64% 202 Sacramento State 31 30.6, 218 Weber State 3 26.5
64% 176 Rice 18 31.0, 207 Florida Atlantic 14 25.8
64% 76 Houston 59 36.5, 151 Texas - San Antonio 28 25.8
64% 36 Eastern Illinois 42 38.8, 96 Eastern Kentucky 7 33.1
64% 16 Oklahoma 35 24.7, 46 Notre Dame 21 20.5
63% 139 Bryant 47 26.9, 186 Wagner 28 23.8
63% 134 Princeton 50 29.5, 173 Georgetown 22 24.1
62% 201 North Carolina - Charl 45 26.4, 238 Presbyterian 21 17.7
62% 51 Delaware 29 30.1, 74 James Madison 22 27.2
61% 87 Pittsburgh 14 32.8, 112 Virginia 3 30.5
60% 175 Missouri State 37 31.0, 178 Illinois State 10 28.7
60% 75 Maine 28 22.8, 105 Richmond 21 21.6
56% 158 Yale 38 27.5, 126 Cornell 23 26.0
50% 232 Lamar 27 24.4, 235 Grambling 16 24.5
48% 208 Mercer 31 28.9, 110 Drake 17 30.8
47% 138 San Diego 59 28.7, 209 Stetson 0 30.7
41% 61 Washington 31 28.4, 38 Arizona 13 30.1
38% 135 Iowa State 38 27.3, 124 Tulsa 21 29.2
37% 43 Northern Iowa 41 25.9, 8 McNeese State 6 31.5
36% 159 Furman 24 32.9, 137 The Citadel 17 38.7
36% 118 Ball State 31 30.7, 97 Toledo 24 33.9
36% 18 Georgia 44 31.0, 10 Louisiana State 41 34.6
35% 252 Valparaiso 49 32.0, 250 Campbell 42 39.4
35% 234 Western Illinois 24 17.7, 214 South Dakota 10 22.6
35% 204 Nevada - Las Vegas 56 29.1, 192 New Mexico 42 33.6
35% 181 Tennessee Tech 38 27.0, 167 Indiana State 37 32.4
34% 223 Rhode Island 42 24.8, 130 Central Connecticut 7 35.6
34% 194 Buffalo 41 23.4, 168 Connecticut 12 28.8
34% 188 Texas State - San Marc 42 20.8, 93 Wyoming 21 29.3
34% 169 Prairie View 56 34.9, 86 Stephen F. Austin 48 47.2
34% 160 Holy Cross 31 18.8, 127 Dartmouth 28 26.0
32% 206 Army 35 22.7, 145 Louisiana Tech 16 33.3
32% 142 Western Kentucky 19 27.7, 90 Navy 7 36.1
28% 182 Charleston Southern 27 19.0, 98 Appalachian State 24 35.1
21% 156 Marist 31 15.7, 120 Dayton 20 27.7
18% 222 Tulane 31 22.4, 177 Northeast Louisiana 14 36.4
16% 99 West Virginia 30 25.0, 6 Oklahoma State 21 45.7
15% 119 East Carolina 55 23.0, 63 North Carolina 31 34.1
15% 91 Virginia Tech 17 18.6, 30 Georgia Tech 10 29.4
14% 246 Idaho 26 16.7, 154 Temple 24 43.9
14% 147 Murray State 35 26.8, 62 Jacksonville State 34 49.9
13% 150 Northern Arizona 34 12.8, 22 Montana 16 35.9
12% 193 Butler 45 23.5, 85 Jacksonville 27 44.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.61 44 0.98 14 1.14 35 0.90 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 71 74.3 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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