prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 46 Houston 25 47.0, 209 Memphis 15 19.9
89% 71 Cincinnati 38 36.6, 197 Temple 20 13.9
89% 30 Northern Illinois 27 54.8, 225 Akron 20 16.7
88% 151 Arkansas State 48 43.2, 243 Idaho 24 16.4
88% 114 Bethune - Cookman 27 37.3, 220 Howard 6 14.0
88% 20 Arizona State 54 49.9, 179 Colorado 13 19.7
87% 170 Charleston Southern 25 34.4, 244 Virginia Military 17 16.2
87% 99 California Poly 47 40.6, 217 Weber State 0 19.6
87% 90 Auburn 62 49.6, 226 Western Carolina 3 16.8
87% 57 New Hampshire 59 40.1, 193 Rhode Island 19 19.2
87% 53 Michigan State 42 38.9, 74 Indiana 28 23.0
87% 48 Lehigh 24 46.0, 231 Columbia 10 16.8
87% 41 Eastern Illinois 63 52.1, 250 Austin Peay 7 14.7
87% 39 Texas Christian 27 40.9, 201 Kansas 17 10.2
87% 26 California - Los Angel 37 48.8, 147 California 10 21.0
87% 21 Georgia Southern 28 47.7, 139 The Citadel 21 24.1
87% 14 North Dakota State 41 40.4, 182 Missouri State 26 4.1
87% 9 Sam Houston State 14 56.6, 224 Lamar 3 13.5
87% 8 Clemson 24 45.1, 134 Boston College 14 16.3
86% 215 Florida A&M 27 43.3, 251 Savannah State 14 22.7
86% 131 Wofford 31 36.9, 206 Elon 27 15.0
86% 88 Marshall 24 35.3, 200 Florida Atlantic 23 24.2
86% 61 Fordham 34 40.8, 190 Georgetown 12 23.3
86% 49 Montana 42 33.7, 208 California - Davis 7 11.6
86% 34 Nebraska 44 41.5, 143 Purdue 7 24.5
86% 32 Coastal Carolina 42 51.9, 219 Gardner - Webb 7 21.3
86% 28 Texas Tech 42 36.6, 82 Iowa State 35 22.1
86% 18 Youngstown State 59 46.3, 146 Illinois State 21 24.4
86% 16 Harvard 34 47.1, 180 Cornell 24 20.7
86% 10 Alabama 48 41.0, 137 Kentucky 7 12.0
86% 6 Louisiana State 17 33.0, 45 Florida 6 19.9
86% 3 Oregon 45 46.0, 62 Washington 24 23.0
85% 186 Army 50 39.3, 240 Eastern Michigan 25 23.2
84% 1 Texas A&M 41 49.7, 67 Mississippi 38 26.9
83% 97 Sacred Heart 59 36.1, 171 Central Connecticut 36 20.4
82% 85 South Dakota State 38 31.7, 233 Western Illinois 14 11.5
81% 58 Mississippi State 21 31.7, 167 Bowling Green 20 14.5
80% 93 Duquesne 34 32.4, 189 Wagner 7 18.1
80% 50 James Madison 38 29.8, 105 Richmond 31 16.5
78% 166 Butler 35 48.4, 246 Campbell 14 23.5
78% 75 Princeton 42 32.4, 133 Lafayette 26 22.2
77% 132 Holy Cross 51 27.6, 222 Bucknell 27 18.5
77% 100 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 34.3, 157 Furman 9 22.1
77% 78 Alabama State 48 39.5, 136 Prairie View 42 24.8
77% 60 Virginia Tech 19 30.9, 79 Pittsburgh 9 18.7
77% 27 Wisconsin 35 36.1, 35 Northwestern 6 26.5
76% 66 Maryland 27 34.1, 145 Virginia 26 18.8
76% 13 Louisville 24 36.3, 52 Rutgers 10 21.9
75% 19 South Carolina 52 33.7, 83 Arkansas 7 23.0
73% 111 Drake 27 40.0, 241 Davidson 6 15.4
70% 86 Ball State 27 35.4, 163 Kent State 24 25.1
69% 40 Oregon State 52 35.9, 120 Washington State 24 26.7
68% 229 Alcorn State 48 33.0, 245 Grambling 0 22.4
68% 185 Alabama - Birmingham 27 35.7, 238 Florida International 24 27.6
68% 153 Buffalo 33 35.6, 207 Western Michigan 0 25.7
68% 102 San Diego 35 34.4, 156 Marist 33 20.3
68% 68 Delaware 33 36.3, 155 Albany 30 25.1
68% 43 Eastern Washington 35 41.2, 158 North Dakota 14 29.2
67% 149 Jackson State 26 27.0, 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 17.7
67% 4 Baylor 35 46.1, 31 Kansas State 25 36.0
66% 148 Wyoming 38 35.3, 175 New Mexico 31 29.8
66% 140 Tulsa 34 37.0, 191 Texas - El Paso 20 30.1
66% 121 Mercer 35 43.1, 252 Valparaiso 21 12.6
66% 24 Boise State 34 32.9, 64 Utah State 23 24.7
65% 236 Massachusetts 17 24.1, 239 Miami - Ohio 10 19.4
65% 204 North Texas 34 28.2, 213 Middle Tennessee State 7 24.2
65% 55 Brigham Young 38 29.6, 47 Georgia Tech 20 24.2
64% 110 William & Mary 27 24.0, 109 Pennsylvania 14 19.5
63% 210 Southern 20 25.7, 235 Alabama A&M 17 23.0
63% 203 Delaware State 14 22.6, 212 Norfolk State 7 20.1
63% 168 Troy State 35 35.7, 218 Georgia State 28 32.0
63% 161 South Carolina State 44 27.7, 188 North Carolina Central 3 23.6
63% 160 South Florida 13 27.9, 194 Connecticut 10 24.3
63% 142 Tennessee - Martin 28 33.2, 176 Tennessee Tech 17 29.1
63% 125 San Diego State 27 33.2, 165 Air Force 20 29.3
63% 124 San Jose State 34 31.7, 150 Colorado State 27 28.5
58% 169 Rice 27 30.5, 195 Texas - San Antonio 21 27.8
57% 108 Stony Brook 27 29.2, 104 Colgate 3 28.1
57% 63 Southern California 38 29.1, 42 Arizona 31 28.1
56% 162 Southeast Louisiana 56 39.7, 116 Stephen F. Austin 14 38.6
56% 123 Dayton 49 29.7, 184 Stetson 20 25.2
56% 89 Samford 34 30.0, 130 Appalachian State 10 29.1
53% 103 Brown 41 23.9, 118 Bryant 14 23.2
53% 36 Utah 27 30.0, 33 Stanford 21 29.5
52% 107 Abilene Christian 69 28.0, 232 Houston Baptist 12 26.6
52% 98 Duke 35 28.0, 115 Navy 7 27.6
51% 154 Northern Arizona 39 22.2, 181 Sacramento State 38 22.1
42% 128 Dartmouth 20 21.5, 127 Yale 13 22.3
38% 199 Southern Utah 17 30.3, 135 Portland State 7 32.8
37% 202 Nevada - Las Vegas 39 31.1, 196 Hawaii 37 34.7
37% 80 Syracuse 24 25.8, 95 North Carolina State 10 28.2
37% 17 Missouri 41 34.6, 15 Georgia 26 37.7
34% 211 South Dakota 17 23.0, 159 Indiana State 14 29.5
34% 113 Tennessee State 31 24.5, 72 Jacksonville State 15 29.9
34% 84 Penn State 43 23.0, 29 Michigan 40 27.8
33% 234 Southeast Missouri Sta 37 30.4, 141 Murray State 34 40.7
32% 237 Texas Southern 41 24.4, 192 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 28 36.7
32% 59 Villanova 45 23.4, 22 Towson 35 30.3
28% 216 Hampton 31 19.1, 164 North Carolina A&T 26 29.7
25% 144 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 25.1, 91 Monmouth 10 36.4
24% 249 Idaho State 40 24.0, 214 Northern Colorado 26 44.3
17% 221 Northeast Louisiana 21 18.3, 177 Texas State - San Marc 14 29.6
15% 198 Tulane 36 22.8, 73 East Carolina 33 40.6
14% 126 Southern Illinois 24 16.3, 23 Northern Iowa 17 40.1
14% 56 Texas 36 23.5, 11 Oklahoma 20 36.6
13% 248 Nicholls State 33 22.0, 173 Northwestern State 21 40.6
13% 205 Central Michigan 26 17.0, 119 Ohio 23 34.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.67 35 1.09 17 1.08 43 1.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 87 79.5 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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