prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 37 Northern Illinois 59 57.0, 234 Eastern Michigan 20 17.1
90% 2 Florida State 49 47.9, 95 North Carolina State 17 8.8
89% 122 Ohio 41 38.9, 242 Miami - Ohio 16 13.7
89% 52 Auburn 45 40.4, 208 Florida Atlantic 10 11.8
88% 57 Mississippi State 28 36.6, 158 Kentucky 22 16.8
88% 46 Montana State 34 37.5, 209 California - Davis 17 13.9
88% 11 Sam Houston State 44 53.1, 207 Northwestern State 10 17.6
88% 4 Ohio State 63 40.5, 72 Penn State 14 19.7
87% 137 Drake 23 48.7, 251 Valparaiso 10 11.4
87% 103 Alabama State 31 33.8, 230 Alabama A&M 7 14.7
87% 60 Mississippi 59 52.5, 241 Idaho 14 12.3
87% 56 McNeese State 55 47.1, 236 Nicholls State 30 12.9
87% 50 Central Florida 62 38.7, 185 Connecticut 17 14.1
87% 35 Arizona 44 41.3, 154 Colorado 20 22.9
87% 29 Coastal Carolina 66 60.2, 245 Virginia Military 27 16.5
87% 26 Old Dominion 27 45.5, 226 Norfolk State 24 16.0
87% 25 Miami - Florida 24 37.4, 144 Wake Forest 21 14.9
87% 12 North Dakota State 56 44.6, 197 Indiana State 10 7.7
87% 7 Oklahoma State 58 42.6, 123 Iowa State 27 17.6
87% 5 Alabama 45 44.7, 71 Tennessee 10 13.4
87% 3 Oregon 42 46.6, 33 California - Los Angel 14 26.5
87% 1 Baylor 59 60.1, 174 Kansas 14 17.8
86% 189 Southern Utah 19 45.3, 243 Idaho State 9 18.4
86% 159 Tennessee - Martin 38 39.4, 252 Austin Peay 14 11.5
86% 120 Eastern Kentucky 31 37.4, 225 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 17.8
86% 113 Jacksonville 56 45.2, 246 Davidson 13 17.6
86% 96 Brown 42 35.5, 171 Cornell 35 22.1
86% 90 Jacksonville State 34 36.9, 186 Tennessee Tech 14 22.7
86% 86 Ball State 42 40.6, 212 Akron 24 23.6
86% 53 Delaware 35 37.0, 200 Rhode Island 13 19.2
86% 9 Louisiana State 48 41.7, 149 Furman 16 11.2
85% 157 Dartmouth 56 28.5, 220 Columbia 0 15.9
85% 80 Dayton 42 44.4, 181 Morehead State 14 24.1
85% 31 Georgia Tech 35 39.2, 167 Virginia 25 19.3
84% 81 Washington 41 39.9, 161 California 17 22.5
83% 38 Notre Dame 45 34.8, 170 Air Force 10 15.1
83% 32 Louisville 34 36.8, 146 South Florida 3 20.3
81% 39 Kansas State 35 37.9, 93 West Virginia 12 25.2
81% 15 Clemson 40 37.1, 99 Maryland 27 23.8
79% 216 North Carolina Central 24 42.5, 249 Savannah State 10 24.5
77% 169 Louisiana Tech 23 36.4, 235 Florida International 7 25.1
77% 156 Missouri State 38 26.7, 215 Western Illinois 27 18.4
77% 125 Southeast Louisiana 56 32.4, 214 Lamar 34 16.4
74% 92 Illinois State 28 37.1, 172 South Dakota 14 23.5
74% 66 Michigan State 42 28.0, 101 Illinois 3 17.8
74% 18 Towson 48 33.3, 118 Richmond 32 21.2
73% 110 Central Arkansas 66 45.8, 140 Stephen F. Austin 31 32.6
73% 88 Liberty 24 40.3, 222 Gardner - Webb 0 21.3
72% 124 San Jose State 51 34.7, 176 Wyoming 44 23.8
72% 114 Colorado State 35 38.2, 204 Hawaii 28 28.5
69% 151 Rice 45 36.7, 182 Texas - El Paso 7 27.5
69% 91 San Diego 42 35.2, 155 Butler 14 22.0
69% 6 Texas A&M 56 45.2, 51 Vanderbilt 24 29.9
68% 116 Pennsylvania 28 25.4, 142 Yale 17 18.8
67% 180 North Texas 55 30.7, 227 Southern Mississippi 14 23.1
67% 129 Colgate 34 33.6, 187 Georgetown 14 27.2
67% 107 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 30.6, 131 The Citadel 24 22.8
66% 239 Texas Southern 23 27.6, 250 Grambling 17 22.6
66% 109 Bethune - Cookman 14 25.6, 141 South Carolina State 3 18.4
66% 73 Iowa 17 27.9, 62 Northwestern 10 23.0
66% 36 Fresno State 35 37.4, 115 San Diego State 28 30.6
65% 210 Northeast Louisiana 38 28.8, 217 Georgia State 10 22.4
65% 206 Howard 28 27.9, 221 Morgan State 14 23.5
65% 139 Buffalo 41 28.7, 190 Kent State 21 22.1
64% 188 North Carolina A&T 20 21.2, 228 Florida A&M 13 15.3
64% 147 Portland State 14 34.8, 178 North Dakota 10 29.4
64% 127 Southern Methodist 59 30.5, 162 Temple 49 25.9
64% 20 Oklahoma 38 36.0, 19 Texas Tech 30 31.0
63% 179 Texas State - San Marc 33 26.0, 168 South Alabama 31 22.6
63% 75 Toledo 28 32.0, 145 Bowling Green 25 28.3
62% 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 38 26.6, 240 Mississippi Valley Sta 18 24.2
62% 148 Mercer 38 35.2, 238 Campbell 31 23.5
62% 135 Marist 27 35.0, 202 Stetson 0 24.3
62% 104 North Carolina 34 30.2, 117 Boston College 10 27.8
62% 63 Southern California 19 24.9, 44 Utah 3 22.4
61% 184 Hampton 30 24.2, 183 Delaware State 7 22.8
60% 166 Robert Morris 17 22.2, 195 Wagner 13 20.5
57% 136 Jackson State 51 35.0, 121 Prairie View 38 33.9
52% 105 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 33.1, 132 Arkansas State 7 32.9
51% 196 Texas - San Antonio 52 31.3, 177 Alabama - Birmingham 31 31.1
46% 244 Incarnate Word 24 22.2, 248 Houston Baptist 3 24.5
46% 54 New Hampshire 31 27.1, 89 Stony Brook 13 27.5
44% 218 Charleston Southern 36 23.6, 193 North Carolina - Charl 14 27.3
41% 224 Western Michigan 31 23.7, 237 Massachusetts 30 25.0
41% 30 Stanford 20 29.6, 22 Oregon State 12 30.7
38% 82 Samford 34 20.6, 112 Wofford 27 23.2
38% 48 Brigham Young 37 26.2, 21 Boise State 20 28.7
38% 41 Eastern Illinois 34 31.8, 97 Tennessee State 16 34.4
37% 143 Lafayette 41 26.7, 138 Holy Cross 23 29.6
37% 58 Houston 49 34.6, 69 Rutgers 14 39.7
36% 247 New Mexico State 34 22.4, 79 Abilene Christian 29 46.6
36% 133 Navy 24 23.5, 78 Pittsburgh 21 30.1
35% 65 Maine 37 23.6, 64 Villanova 35 27.3
35% 16 South Carolina 27 25.2, 10 Missouri 24 30.0
34% 219 Alcorn State 44 24.0, 194 Southern 38 30.4
34% 164 Troy State 32 29.5, 175 Western Kentucky 26 34.3
34% 106 South Dakota State 37 23.5, 70 Northern Iowa 34 29.0
34% 94 William & Mary 17 19.1, 45 James Madison 7 24.5
34% 43 Texas 30 23.5, 34 Texas Christian 7 30.3
33% 47 Eastern Washington 42 25.3, 40 Montana 37 33.0
32% 232 Western Carolina 27 28.9, 205 Elon 24 40.3
31% 77 Duke 13 21.0, 74 Virginia Tech 10 29.5
30% 201 Tulane 14 26.0, 128 Tulsa 7 37.3
26% 87 Minnesota 34 24.9, 24 Nebraska 23 34.2
19% 199 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 24.4, 85 Nevada - Reno 22 44.6
18% 163 Bryant 42 23.7, 68 Duquesne 14 36.5
17% 130 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 24.6, 67 Sacred Heart 10 37.1
17% 76 Princeton 51 23.8, 8 Harvard 48 41.2
16% 152 Appalachian State 38 23.6, 17 Georgia Southern 14 41.9
14% 223 Middle Tennessee State 51 23.5, 108 Marshall 49 37.7
14% 198 Bucknell 48 14.6, 42 Lehigh 10 33.8
14% 160 Northern Arizona 17 19.4, 98 California Poly 13 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.80 43 0.93 13 1.14 46 0.96 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 80 83.0 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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