prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 94 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 51.3, 245 New Mexico State 35 16.7
89% 49 Montana State 35 44.5, 226 Northern Colorado 28 16.8
89% 3 Ohio State 56 55.2, 172 Purdue 0 16.1
88% 91 Jacksonville State 42 46.2, 252 Austin Peay 10 8.0
88% 59 Utah State 47 45.1, 211 Hawaii 10 16.6
88% 30 Northern Illinois 63 47.1, 240 Massachusetts 19 14.4
87% 162 South Carolina State 45 42.7, 251 Savannah State 9 8.7
87% 146 Yale 53 33.3, 231 Columbia 12 13.5
87% 87 Liberty 17 48.1, 244 Virginia Military 7 11.7
87% 82 Toledo 55 52.7, 229 Eastern Michigan 16 21.8
87% 75 San Diego 58 50.9, 248 Valparaiso 14 12.0
87% 65 Cincinnati 34 37.8, 207 Memphis 21 14.3
87% 42 California - Los Angel 45 39.5, 170 Colorado 23 17.6
87% 41 Eastern Washington 55 57.5, 246 Idaho State 34 15.9
87% 29 Kansas State 41 39.8, 128 Iowa State 7 18.0
87% 23 Texas 35 42.7, 191 Kansas 13 11.7
87% 14 Missouri 31 41.5, 83 Tennessee 3 21.6
87% 5 Texas A&M 57 61.3, 204 Texas - El Paso 7 15.2
86% 180 Texas State - San Marc 37 39.2, 242 Idaho 21 21.0
86% 161 Drake 56 36.9, 188 Morehead State 14 21.4
86% 123 Marshall 61 48.5, 236 Southern Mississippi 13 26.2
86% 116 San Diego State 35 39.0, 185 New Mexico 30 23.4
86% 112 Southern Illinois 34 34.0, 218 Western Illinois 28 18.6
86% 78 East Carolina 34 40.8, 239 Florida International 13 16.7
86% 35 Eastern Illinois 56 48.1, 196 Tennessee Tech 21 23.0
86% 32 Old Dominion 66 47.7, 208 Rhode Island 14 18.8
86% 22 Youngstown State 38 41.1, 193 South Dakota 34 17.0
86% 12 South Carolina 34 31.8, 60 Mississippi State 16 17.8
86% 11 Sam Houston State 56 56.8, 148 Stephen F. Austin 49 27.9
86% 10 Clemson 59 43.8, 164 Virginia 10 19.8
86% 2 Florida State 41 47.1, 43 Miami - Florida 14 17.8
85% 155 Portland State 45 36.4, 225 Weber State 24 22.3
85% 97 Penn State 24 32.5, 130 Illinois 17 20.4
85% 25 Notre Dame 38 33.5, 125 Navy 34 13.5
85% 16 Arizona State 55 45.2, 138 Washington State 21 25.7
84% 40 Arizona 33 44.5, 151 California 28 25.6
84% 38 Boise State 42 40.7, 121 Colorado State 30 24.8
83% 53 Fordham 32 39.6, 143 Holy Cross 30 25.9
83% 15 Harvard 24 41.1, 114 Dartmouth 21 21.9
82% 158 Missouri State 49 34.5, 184 Indiana State 7 23.8
81% 105 Bethune - Cookman 38 31.1, 217 North Carolina Central 14 11.9
81% 37 Georgia Tech 21 35.8, 90 Pittsburgh 10 24.7
79% 68 Princeton 53 46.7, 171 Cornell 20 27.6
79% 28 Houston 35 44.1, 160 South Florida 23 25.9
77% 13 Wisconsin 28 29.9, 74 Iowa 9 18.6
76% 47 Montana 51 34.9, 163 Sacramento State 48 19.1
75% 85 Syracuse 13 28.9, 144 Wake Forest 0 20.8
75% 48 Maine 19 28.1, 104 Stony Brook 14 19.1
73% 124 Lafayette 45 32.2, 192 Georgetown 27 22.0
73% 45 Fresno State 41 42.8, 115 Nevada - Reno 23 30.5
70% 111 California Poly 34 27.6, 203 California - Davis 16 18.1
69% 102 San Jose State 34 38.1, 186 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 26.1
69% 95 Rutgers 23 33.6, 157 Temple 20 23.7
69% 69 Brown 27 30.1, 99 Pennsylvania 0 21.7
68% 198 Charleston Southern 27 36.2, 237 Presbyterian 16 26.0
68% 33 Michigan State 29 30.9, 26 Michigan 6 23.1
67% 182 Western Kentucky 44 30.3, 223 Georgia State 28 21.2
67% 137 Northern Arizona 48 29.3, 179 North Dakota 27 18.7
67% 52 Auburn 35 31.6, 109 Arkansas 17 25.2
67% 44 Nebraska 27 32.9, 64 Northwestern 24 25.5
67% 24 Coastal Carolina 50 50.9, 214 North Carolina - Charl 25 23.3
67% 6 Oklahoma State 52 44.8, 21 Texas Tech 34 35.0
66% 220 Lamar 56 35.7, 234 Nicholls State 34 26.0
66% 206 Southern 31 31.4, 233 Texas Southern 24 25.1
66% 178 Air Force 42 31.5, 183 Army 28 26.0
66% 113 Richmond 27 30.6, 135 Albany 10 24.1
65% 156 Tennessee - Martin 45 36.7, 149 Murray State 17 32.0
65% 96 Duquesne 21 32.3, 117 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 24.8
64% 54 James Madison 31 26.6, 66 Villanova 21 22.1
63% 174 North Carolina A&T 59 31.2, 247 Houston Baptist 12 16.1
63% 167 Mercer 51 33.9, 249 Davidson 26 17.4
63% 108 Eastern Kentucky 44 23.0, 122 Tennessee State 0 19.4
62% 215 Delaware State 22 22.6, 205 Howard 20 20.2
62% 154 Arkansas State 17 28.7, 173 South Alabama 16 25.8
62% 152 North Texas 28 28.7, 140 Rice 16 26.9
62% 80 Minnesota 42 36.9, 81 Indiana 39 34.8
62% 17 Georgia 23 27.7, 56 Florida 20 25.6
59% 147 Robert Morris 24 26.3, 129 Bryant 3 24.9
55% 110 Sacred Heart 24 24.0, 107 Monmouth 21 23.1
49% 76 North Carolina 27 29.9, 101 North Carolina State 19 30.2
47% 133 Marist 42 30.9, 92 Jacksonville 35 31.3
45% 200 Middle Tennessee State 24 35.3, 189 Alabama - Birmingham 21 36.6
43% 86 William & Mary 17 23.6, 46 New Hampshire 0 24.5
41% 219 Florida Atlantic 34 23.9, 195 Tulane 17 25.2
38% 238 Campbell 19 26.3, 222 Stetson 18 33.8
38% 228 Alabama A&M 19 22.1, 216 Alcorn State 18 24.5
38% 57 Southern California 31 22.6, 34 Oregon State 14 25.8
37% 213 Akron 16 27.8, 197 Kent State 7 30.7
37% 175 Texas - San Antonio 34 24.0, 159 Tulsa 15 31.2
36% 165 Bucknell 28 23.1, 119 Colgate 7 26.3
36% 139 Kentucky 48 25.1, 89 Alabama State 14 30.5
36% 106 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 22.7, 93 Appalachian State 28 27.8
35% 250 Grambling 47 19.9, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 40 24.0
35% 177 Central Connecticut 52 24.9, 190 Wagner 17 29.8
34% 187 Northeast Louisiana 49 29.2, 150 Troy State 37 32.9
34% 136 Boston College 34 13.7, 98 Virginia Tech 27 20.4
34% 103 Illinois State 13 26.7, 61 Northern Iowa 3 31.7
33% 221 Florida A&M 16 15.2, 202 Norfolk State 6 22.7
32% 132 Southeast Louisiana 41 27.5, 62 McNeese State 7 41.6
31% 131 The Citadel 28 27.1, 73 Samford 26 34.4
29% 232 Morgan State 30 19.0, 176 Hampton 27 31.0
28% 51 Delaware 32 29.3, 19 Towson 31 39.1
23% 100 West Virginia 30 20.4, 55 Texas Christian 27 31.7
21% 145 Furman 16 21.9, 39 Georgia Southern 14 38.7
14% 209 Northwestern State 31 19.9, 67 Central Arkansas 28 41.9
14% 166 Butler 33 15.7, 71 Dayton 30 34.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.51 42 0.95 13 0.92 43 1.11 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 79 78.9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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