2013 Week 13 (19-23 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90%   2 Florida State           80 71.8,   239 Idaho                   14  0.5
 89%   9 North Dakota State      42 44.6,   182 South Dakota             0  3.9
 88%  96 Bowling Green           58 43.7,   236 Eastern Michigan         7 14.3
 88%  74 Marshall                48 47.1,   246 Florida International   10 19.0
 88%  67 Miami - Florida         45 37.9,   168 Virginia                26 20.2
 87% 106 Appalachian State       48 47.8,   229 Western Carolina        27 17.9
 87%  94 Bethune - Cookman       29 34.6,   219 Florida A&M             10 13.9
 87%  92 Brown                   48 32.8,   232 Columbia                 7  9.7
 87%  65 Northern Iowa           28 33.4,   211 Western Illinois        13  7.0
 87%  26 Louisville              24 34.7,   186 Memphis                 17  5.2
 87%  22 Fresno State            69 55.2,   199 New Mexico              28 22.8
 87%  12 Georgia                 59 43.4,   132 Kentucky                17 18.4
 87%   8 Clemson                 52 50.0,   135 The Citadel              6 18.2
 87%   3 Ohio State              42 62.7,   114 Indiana                 14 23.5
 86% 197 Tennessee Tech          34 41.0,   251 Austin Peay              0 20.8
 86% 169 Middle Tennessee State  42 37.6,   241 Southern Mississippi    21 22.2
 86% 136 Buffalo                 44 34.7,   244 Miami - Ohio             7 14.5
 86% 118 Arkansas State          35 41.2,   223 Georgia State           33 18.1
 86% 111 Samford                 33 34.5,   210 Elon                    32 16.5
 86% 100 Jacksonville State      42 45.7,   235 Southeast Missouri Sta  34 18.2
 86%  95 California Poly         42 36.1,   220 Northern Colorado       14 17.1
 86%  82 Southeast Louisiana     52 45.1,   228 Nicholls State          27 15.3
 86%  55 Georgia Tech            66 42.8,   214 Alabama A&M              7 17.3
 86%  50 Southern California     47 39.5,   171 Colorado                29 15.5
 86%  32 Eastern Washington      42 49.7,   152 Portland State          41 27.6
 86%  28 Stanford                63 44.5,   154 California              13 16.4
 86%  25 Eastern Illinois        70 38.3,   155 Tennessee - Martin      22 24.1
 86%  16 Harvard                 34 41.3,   149 Yale                     7 20.2
 86%  10 Wisconsin               20 34.4,    78 Minnesota                7 16.5
 86%   7 Alabama                 49 37.0,    91 Tennessee - Chattanoog   0  6.2
 85% 206 Florida Atlantic        55 39.7,   237 New Mexico State        10 22.7
 85% 173 Bucknell                35 28.3,   243 Virginia Military       23  7.6
 85%  76 McNeese State           42 40.3,   204 Lamar                   38 22.3
 84%  59 Duke                    28 35.0,   179 Wake Forest             21 20.9
 83% 126 Southern Illinois       31 31.9,   213 Indiana State            9 18.5
 81%  93 Liberty                 56 32.7,   218 Charleston Southern     14 14.7
 80%  61 Utah State              13 39.5,   117 Colorado State           0 26.8
 79% 203 Central Michigan        37 29.1,   240 Massachusetts            0 18.2
 78%  58 Mississippi State       24 32.4,   127 Arkansas                17 21.2
 77% 151 North Carolina A&T      28 29.9,   208 North Carolina Central   0 18.1
 76%  48 Central Florida         41 35.9,   122 Rutgers                 17 20.6
 75% 227 Weber State             32 44.0,   245 Idaho State              7 28.3
 74% 139 Rice                    37 41.9,   222 Alabama - Birmingham    34 26.1
 72%  80 Stony Brook             24 33.2,   128 Albany                   3 22.7
 69% 146 South Carolina State    17 22.9,   217 Norfolk State            3 12.5
 69%  36 Michigan State          30 26.4,    62 Northwestern             6 17.9
 69%  24 Towson                  28 32.6,    64 James Madison           17 24.7
 68% 110 Southern Methodist      16 30.6,   192 South Florida            6 23.8
 68%  53 Villanova               35 34.2,    75 Delaware                34 24.7
 68%  17 Missouri                24 34.0,    38 Mississippi             10 28.0
 68%  13 South Carolina          70 41.8,    34 Coastal Carolina        10 24.5
 67% 133 Iowa State              34 28.7,   165 Kansas                   0 22.7
 67%  57 Vanderbilt              14 33.5,   107 Tennessee               10 25.0
 67%  43 East Carolina           42 37.2,   123 North Carolina State    28 29.0
 67%  31 Montana                 28 35.3,    86 Montana State           14 27.9
 66% 174 Wyoming                 59 35.4,   198 Hawaii                  56 29.2
 66%  29 Notre Dame              23 26.8,    52 Brigham Young           13 22.3
 66%  19 Northern Illinois       35 45.6,    79 Toledo                  17 37.0
 66%  15 Arizona State           38 34.8,    44 California - Los Angel  33 29.4
 65% 224 Gardner - Webb          20 28.7,   238 Presbyterian            13 23.0
 65%  97 Navy                    58 30.2,   131 San Jose State          52 25.6
 64%  66 Richmond                31 22.8,    84 William & Mary          20 19.3
 63% 234 Campbell                47 31.1,   248 Davidson                14 26.5
 63% 125 Illinois                20 34.4,   172 Purdue                  16 30.6
 62% 176 Mercer                  41 28.2,   230 Stetson                 14 20.2
 62%  87 Fordham                 56 31.4,   144 Colgate                 19 28.9
 62%  42 Cincinnati              24 35.6,    35 Houston                 17 32.7
 61%  83 Pittsburgh              17 25.2,   103 Syracuse                16 23.7
 58% 215 Tulane                  45 27.3,   212 Texas - El Paso          3 26.1
 55% 163 Western Kentucky        38 25.9,   185 Texas State - San Marc   7 25.1
 54% 160 Bryant                  29 31.3,   161 Central Connecticut     16 30.7
 53%  49 Nebraska                23 27.8,    77 Penn State              20 27.2
 51% 134 Furman                  27 23.8,   130 Wofford                 14 23.6
 50% 178 Prairie View            43 44.3,   180 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   23 44.2

 50%  56 North Carolina          80 39.7,    21 Old Dominion            20 39.7
 47% 216 North Carolina - Charl  61 30.6,   221 Morehead State          17 32.4
 47% 193 Northwestern State      40 41.7,   143 Stephen F. Austin       27 42.3
 46% 184 Howard                  42 25.8,   189 Hampton                 39 26.6
 45% 166 Tulsa                   24 33.0,   175 Louisiana Tech          14 34.2
 44% 196 South Alabama           36 25.1,   188 Northeast Louisiana     14 26.6
 42%   5 Oklahoma State          49 44.1,     1 Baylor                  17 45.9
 41%  71 Iowa                    24 22.7,    33 Michigan                21 23.9
 41%  46 New Hampshire           24 29.0,    27 Maine                    3 30.0
 40% 187 Kent State              44 23.0,   177 Ohio                    13 24.7
 40% 153 Saint Francis - Pennsy  23 23.3,   147 Robert Morris            3 24.7
 38% 159 Texas - San Antonio     21 21.6,   158 North Texas             13 25.4
 38% 137 Northern Arizona        20 19.3,   150 Southern Utah           10 22.2
 37%  85 Boston College          29 26.1,    88 Maryland                26 30.0
 36%  39 Georgia Southern        26 21.1,    70 Florida                 20 26.9
 35% 201 California - Davis      34 23.5,   157 Sacramento State         7 27.5
 35%  18 Oklahoma                41 29.4,    14 Kansas State            31 34.1
 35%  11 Louisiana State         34 35.4,     4 Texas A&M               10 40.9
 34% 170 Murray State            34 23.2,   138 Eastern Kentucky        27 30.2
 34% 119 Duquesne                33 20.1,   101 Monmouth                23 24.4
 34%  99 Dartmouth               28 26.7,    41 Princeton               24 32.0
 34%  69 South Dakota State      42 27.1,    40 Youngstown State        13 32.4
 34%  68 Washington              69 25.5,    54 Oregon State            27 30.7
 33% 116 Central Arkansas        49 25.8,    20 Sam Houston State       31 37.2
 29% 129 Washington State        49 20.3,    63 Utah                    37 30.4
 24% 200 Nevada - Las Vegas      41 27.4,   162 Air Force               21 37.3
 24% 195 Connecticut             28 22.4,   141 Temple                  21 32.7
 21% 191 Georgetown              28 21.6,   140 Holy Cross              21 31.6
 21% 113 Lafayette               50 20.6,    51 Lehigh                  28 32.0
 15% 108 San Diego State         34 22.1,    23 Boise State             31 36.3
 14% 233 Morgan State            31 18.5,   205 Delaware State          26 30.6
 14% 167 Cornell                 42 22.5,   120 Pennsylvania            41 35.8
 14%  60 Arizona                 42 25.3,     6 Oregon                  16 44.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               16 0.68  38 0.97  12 0.77  40 1.05   1 1.11   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107  74  78.0 0.95

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net