prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 9 North Dakota State 38 40.0, 111 Furman 7 14.4
87% 1 Florida State 45 53.5, 83 Duke 7 16.6
78% 38 Central Florida 17 32.0, 128 Southern Methodist 13 18.9
76% 24 Towson 48 39.6, 66 Fordham 28 28.8
69% 153 Connecticut 45 28.7, 205 Memphis 10 17.5
68% 4 Baylor 30 44.3, 19 Texas 10 33.2
66% 25 Eastern Illinois 51 33.1, 100 Tennessee State 10 26.8
65% 124 Rutgers 31 25.9, 170 South Florida 6 21.0
65% 23 New Hampshire 41 29.5, 57 Maine 27 24.8
63% 39 Eastern Washington 41 32.6, 58 South Dakota State 17 30.1
63% 34 Fresno State 24 37.8, 72 Utah State 17 33.5
62% 44 Jacksonville State 31 37.4, 81 McNeese State 10 34.1
41% 42 Louisville 31 23.5, 54 Cincinnati 24 24.8
36% 175 South Alabama 30 28.8, 107 Louisiana - Lafayette 8 35.1
34% 104 Bowling Green 47 23.9, 30 Northern Illinois 27 31.0
34% 20 Stanford 38 28.9, 11 Arizona State 14 34.0
31% 51 Coastal Carolina 42 31.4, 27 Montana 35 43.2
31% 35 Auburn 59 23.9, 15 Missouri 42 30.6
28% 86 Southeast Louisiana 30 31.5, 17 Sam Houston State 29 42.3
20% 45 Michigan State 34 20.6, 2 Ohio State 24 34.3
17% 140 Rice 41 28.7, 59 Marshall 24 42.6
14% 16 Oklahoma 33 26.2, 3 Oklahoma State 24 40.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 13 0.94 4 0.65 4 0.58 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 22 12 15.6 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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