prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 11 North Dakota State 48 42.3, 40 Coastal Carolina 14 22.5
83% 94 Navy 34 40.6, 199 Army 7 24.4
63% 19 Towson 49 39.6, 27 Eastern Illinois 39 35.2
62% 31 Eastern Washington 35 35.6, 43 Jacksonville State 24 32.8
33% 101 Southeast Louisiana 17 24.7, 21 New Hampshire 17 39.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 1.04 0 0.00 2 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 4 3.6 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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