2013 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%   1 Florida State           34 46.1,    25 Auburn                  31 21.4
 86%  10 Louisiana State         21 30.6,    60 Iowa                    14 17.4
 86%   7 Texas A&M               52 49.0,    85 Duke                    48 26.8
 86%   4 Oregon                  30 40.9,    24 Texas                    7 27.0
 85%  56 East Carolina           37 39.7,   161 Ohio                    20 26.7
 85%  49 Mississippi State       44 35.1,   131 Rice                     7 19.7
 84%   9 North Dakota State      52 33.7,    47 New Hampshire           14 15.0
 81% 118 Louisiana - Lafayette   24 36.8,   212 Tulane                  21 24.3
 75%   9 North Dakota State      35 34.6,    19 Towson                   7 23.1
 74%  38 Arizona                 42 34.8,    84 Boston College          19 25.8
 73%  28 Notre Dame              29 30.2,   106 Rutgers                 16 17.0
 67% 167 North Texas             36 29.2,   174 Nevada - Las Vegas      14 25.0
 67%   8 South Carolina          34 28.1,    16 Wisconsin               24 22.7
 66%  87 Navy                    24 34.3,   154 Middle Tennessee State   6 25.1
 66%  18 Kansas State            31 34.1,    29 Michigan                14 29.2
 64%  36 Louisville              36 29.8,    43 Miami - Florida          9 26.3
 64%  22 North Carolina          39 32.5,    53 Cincinnati              17 27.5
 63% 127 San Diego State         49 28.8,   147 Buffalo                 24 25.7
 62% 116 Colorado State          48 32.6,   134 Washington State        45 30.6
 62%  19 Towson                  35 36.5,    37 Eastern Washington      31 34.0
 60%  55 Southern California     45 32.9,    30 Fresno State            20 31.2
 54%  83 Pittsburgh              30 23.9,    96 Bowling Green           27 23.3
 51%  32 California - Los Angel  42 23.7,    61 Virginia Tech           12 23.6

 48%  98 Syracuse                21 24.2,   105 Minnesota               17 24.4
 38% 120 Arkansas State          23 32.4,    91 Ball State              20 34.9
 38%  73 Vanderbilt              41 29.3,    40 Houston                 24 32.4
 38%  69 Utah State              21 29.1,    35 Northern Illinois       14 30.5
 38%  42 Washington              31 25.7,    48 Brigham Young           16 27.4
 38%  34 Michigan State          24 19.2,    17 Stanford                20 21.5
 36%  90 Marshall                31 31.0,    89 Maryland                20 35.0
 35%  13 Clemson                 40 34.3,     3 Ohio State              35 39.4
 34%  52 Mississippi             25 28.6,    26 Georgia Tech            17 34.5
 34%  46 Texas Tech              37 33.0,    15 Arizona State           23 39.9
 30%  50 Nebraska                24 28.9,    12 Georgia                 19 39.1
 27%  62 Oregon State            38 27.1,    23 Boise State             23 36.6
 25%  20 Missouri                41 27.6,     5 Oklahoma State          31 38.6
 22%  33 Central Florida         52 28.3,     2 Baylor                  42 42.5
 14%  14 Oklahoma                45 20.7,     6 Alabama                 31 31.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.38  18 0.78   7 0.58   9 1.04   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  38  23  26.6 0.87

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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