19 Jan 2015: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2014 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5   7 15.6  7.6 Oregon                  
  2  5   7 15.0  7.8 Texas Christian         
  3  5   7 15.3  7.5 Ohio State              
  4 21   6 14.2  8.0 Alabama                 
  5 65   6 14.6  7.6 Florida State           
  6  7   6 15.5  6.8 Baylor                  
  7  8   6 14.1  7.5 Michigan State          
  8  9   5 13.5  7.7 Clemson                 
  9  9   5 14.3  7.0 Georgia                 
 10 14   5 13.6  7.3 Wisconsin               
 11 13   5 13.0  7.7 Louisiana State         
 12 49   5 13.6  7.1 Oklahoma                
 13 10   4 12.8  7.7 Stanford                
 14 22   5 13.9  6.8 Boise State             
 15 34   4 13.6  7.0 Kansas State            
 16 21   4 13.4  6.9 Southern California     
 17 19   4 12.6  7.4 Florida                 
 18 16   4 13.1  6.9 Louisville              
 19 26   4 13.7  6.5 Georgia Tech            
 20 13   4 13.5  6.4 Arizona State           
 21 22   4 13.5  6.3 Texas A&M               
 22 47   3 12.5  6.9 Missouri                
 23 56   3 13.0  6.5 South Carolina          
 24 45   3 13.2  6.3 Auburn                  
 25 62   3 12.8  6.5 Oklahoma State          
 26 43   3 13.2  6.2 Nebraska                
 27 32   3 12.0  7.0 Mississippi             
 28 49   3 12.9  6.3 Notre Dame              
 29 30   3 12.5  6.5 Miami - Florida         
 30 19   3 12.3  6.7 Central Florida         
 31 52   3 12.9  6.2 California - Los Angeles
 32 21   3 12.4  6.6 Utah                    
 33 27   3 12.6  6.4 Mississippi State       
 34 25   3 12.3  6.6 Arkansas                
 35 43   3 12.8  6.2 West Virginia           
 36 26   3 11.8  6.9 Virginia Tech           
 37 40   3 12.7  6.1 Arizona                 
 38 23   3 13.1  5.8 Marshall                
 39 29   3 12.7  6.0 Cincinnati              
 40 20   3 12.6  6.0 Brigham Young           
 41 77   2 11.6  6.7 Texas                   
 42 19   2 11.4  6.9 Penn State              
 43 37   2 12.2  6.2 Washington              
 44 19   2 12.8  5.7 East Carolina           
 45 36   2 11.6  6.5 Utah State              
 46 47   2 11.9  6.3 Iowa                    
 47 30   2 11.9  6.2 Boston College          
 48 68   2 11.4  6.4 Michigan                
 49 14   2 12.3  5.8 Georgia Southern        
 50 22   2 12.0  6.0 Houston                 
 51 38   2 12.0  6.0 Pittsburgh              
 52 42   2 12.2  5.8 Duke                    
 53 36   2 11.8  6.0 Minnesota               
 54 40   2 12.1  5.8 Tennessee               
 55 22   2 12.1  5.8 Northern Illinois       
 56 20   2 11.8  5.8 North Carolina State    
 57 56   2 12.6  5.2 North Carolina          
 58 37   1 11.4  5.8 Northwestern            
 59 53   1 11.4  5.8 Oregon State            
 60 32   1 10.9  6.1 Temple                  
 61 56   1 11.7  5.6 Memphis                 
 62 52   1 11.8  5.5 Maryland                
 63 43   1 11.3  5.8 Virginia                
 64 32   1 11.9  5.3 Colorado State          
 65 22   1 11.4  5.7 Rutgers                 
 66 23   1 11.8  5.3 Appalachian State       
 67 34   1 12.1  5.0 Toledo                  
 68 20   1 11.0  5.8 San Diego State         
 69 27   1 11.5  5.4 Nevada - Reno           
 70 18   1 11.6  5.3 Navy                    
 71 48   1 12.1  4.9 Texas Tech              
 72 43   1 11.6  5.2 Fresno State            
 73 28   1 11.5  5.2 Louisiana Tech          
 74 50   0 10.5  5.8 Syracuse                
 75 37   0 11.4  5.0 Kentucky                
 76 29   0 11.3  5.1 Bowling Green           
 77 32   0 11.4  4.9 Arkansas State          
 78 21   0 11.1  5.0 Ball State              
 79 40   0 11.8  4.4 California              
 80 47   0 10.8  5.1 Air Force               
 81 44   0 12.0  4.1 Western Kentucky        
 82 47   0 10.9  4.9 Western Michigan        
 83 33   0 10.8  4.9 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 84 33   0 10.9  4.8 Iowa State              
 85 26   0 11.3  4.5 Indiana                 
 86 30   0 10.6  5.0 Central Michigan        
 87 38   0 10.4  5.1 Vanderbilt              
 88 30   0 10.6  4.9 Rice                    
 89 36   0 11.0  4.6 Buffalo                 
 90 41   0 11.3  4.3 Washington State        
 91 33   0 10.8  4.7 Illinois                
 92 34   0 11.5  4.1 Old Dominion            
 93 35   0  9.7  5.4 Wake Forest             
 94 33   0  9.7  5.2 South Florida           
 95 21   0  9.9  5.0 Ohio                    
 96 37   0 10.3  4.7 Purdue                  
 97 55   0 10.5  4.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 98 22   0  9.8  4.9 Northeast Louisiana     
 99 34   0  9.7  4.9 Kansas                  
100 50   0 10.2  4.5 North Texas             
101 23   0 10.0  4.7 San Jose State          
102 25   0  9.9  4.7 Hawaii                  
103 27   0  9.5  4.9 Connecticut             
104 30  -1 10.2  4.4 Wyoming                 
105 26  -1 10.3  4.3 Middle Tennessee State  
106 26  -1  9.4  4.8 Kent State              
107 51  -1 10.2  4.2 Army                    
108 18  -1  9.8  4.4 South Alabama           
109 33  -1  9.8  4.4 Texas - El Paso         
110 44  -1 10.4  3.9 Colorado                
111 22  -1 10.2  4.0 Tulsa                   
112 43  -1  9.6  4.5 Akron                   
113 44  -1 10.3  3.8 Alabama - Birmingham    
114 22  -1  9.6  4.2 Florida Atlantic        
115 56  -1  9.2  4.5 Tulane                  
116 34  -1  9.8  4.0 Massachusetts           
117 33  -2 10.2  3.6 New Mexico              
118 44  -1  9.1  4.4 Florida International   
119 15  -2  9.6  3.8 Nevada - Las Vegas      
120 21  -2  8.7  4.3 Texas - San Antonio     
121 16  -2  8.8  4.1 Southern Methodist      
122 17  -2  9.2  3.7 Troy State              
123 26  -2  8.9  3.8 Miami - Ohio            
124 25  -3  8.6  3.6 Southern Mississippi    
125 15  -4  8.5  2.8 Georgia State           
126 32  -4  8.6  2.7 Idaho                   
127 31  -4  8.4  2.5 New Mexico State        
128 16  -5  7.7  2.6 Eastern Michigan        

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  8   5 13.3  7.9 Harvard                 
  2 23   4 12.9  7.7 North Dakota State      
  3 26   4 13.2  6.5 New Hampshire           
  4 22   4 13.1  6.5 Villanova               
  5 18   3 13.4  6.0 Fordham                 
  6 37   3 12.3  6.4 Dartmouth               
  7 32   3 12.0  6.5 Northern Iowa           
  8 31   2 12.2  6.2 Jacksonville State      
  9 26   2 12.9  5.6 Yale                    
 10 58   2 11.8  6.3 Montana                 
 11 23   2 11.8  6.3 Brown                   
 12 40   2 12.3  5.9 James Madison           
 13 28   2 12.6  5.7 Coastal Carolina        
 14 30   2 12.3  5.8 Illinois State          
 15 39   2 11.9  6.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 16 36   2 11.5  6.3 William & Mary          
 17 53   2 12.1  5.6 Eastern Illinois        
 18 26   2 12.2  5.5 Princeton               
 19 51   2 11.9  5.6 Sam Houston State       
 20 32   1 12.9  4.9 Eastern Washington      
 21 56   1 11.7  5.7 Jacksonville            
 22 29   1 11.7  5.6 Richmond                
 23 27   1 11.5  5.8 Lafayette               
 24 15   1 11.3  5.9 Sacred Heart            
 25 32   1 11.9  5.5 South Dakota State      
 26 37   1 10.8  6.2 Stony Brook             
 27 15   1 11.8  5.5 Liberty                 
 28 36   1 11.6  5.6 Youngstown State        
 29 25   1 11.2  5.8 Bryant                  
 30 34   1 11.7  5.5 Lehigh                  
 31 61   1 10.7  6.2 Maine                   
 32 46   1 11.6  5.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 33 30   1 11.4  5.6 Albany                  
 34 68   1 11.4  5.5 Dayton                  
 35 34   1 10.9  5.9 Duquesne                
 36 73   1 11.2  5.6 San Diego               
 37 58   1 11.6  5.3 California Poly         
 38 56   1 11.8  5.1 Alcorn State            
 39 67   1 10.7  5.9 Drake                   
 40 40   1 11.1  5.6 Pennsylvania            
 41 61   1 11.1  5.6 Bethune - Cookman       
 42 17   1 10.9  5.7 Colgate                 
 43 28   1 10.9  5.7 Holy Cross              
 44 53   1 10.8  5.8 North Carolina A&T      
 45 53   1 11.1  5.5 Delaware                
 46 61   1 11.1  5.5 Alabama State           
 47 39   0 10.9  5.6 Bucknell                
 48 23   0 11.0  5.4 Samford                 
 49 38   0 11.1  5.3 Eastern Kentucky        
 50 42   0 11.2  5.2 Monmouth                
 51 65   0 10.7  5.5 Tennessee State         
 52 42   0 11.6  4.8 Montana State           
 53 43   0 10.5  5.5 South Carolina State    
 54 21   0 10.4  5.5 Wofford                 
 55 31   0 10.8  5.1 Southern Illinois       
 56 52   0 10.6  5.3 Towson                  
 57 47   0 10.5  5.2 McNeese State           
 58 41   0 11.3  4.4 Central Arkansas        
 59 23   0 10.0  5.4 Wagner                  
 60 61   0  9.7  5.6 Marist                  
 61 18   0 10.9  4.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 62 15   0 10.3  4.9 Missouri State          
 63 42   0 10.4  4.9 Indiana State           
 64 36   0  9.7  5.4 Georgetown              
 65 32   0 10.4  4.7 Tennessee - Martin      
 66 25   0 10.4  4.7 The Citadel             
 67 37   0 10.0  4.9 Northern Arizona        
 68 45   0 11.2  4.0 Prairie View            
 69 14   0 10.0  4.8 Central Connecticut     
 70 62   0 10.0  4.8 Jackson State           
 71 39  -1 10.6  4.1 Southern                
 72 40  -1  9.9  4.6 Cornell                 
 73 55  -1  9.9  4.4 Butler                  
 74 26  -1  9.7  4.6 Western Illinois        
 75 45  -1 10.3  4.2 Northwestern State      
 76 35  -1  9.7  4.5 Charleston Southern     
 77 29  -1 10.2  4.1 Morgan State            
 78 47  -1 10.5  3.8 Stephen F. Austin       
 79 87  -1 10.6  3.7 Mercer                  
 80 26  -1  8.4  5.3 Norfolk State           
 81 83  -1 10.6  3.7 Abilene Christian       
 82 39  -1 10.1  4.1 Grambling               
 83 48  -1 10.5  3.7 Sacramento State        
 84 31  -1  9.2  4.7 Furman                  
 85 26  -1  9.2  4.7 Florida A&M             
 86 57  -1  9.8  4.2 North Carolina Central  
 87 36  -1  9.8  4.2 Alabama A&M             
 88 20  -1  9.5  4.2 Southern Utah           
 89 30  -1  9.5  4.2 Hampton                 
 90 19  -1  8.9  4.6 Elon                    
 91 28  -1  9.7  4.0 Portland State          
 92 52  -2  9.8  3.9 Howard                  
 93 56  -2 11.2  2.7 North Carolina - Charlot
 94 23  -1  9.6  4.1 California - Davis      
 95 42  -2  9.8  3.7 Southeast Missouri State
 96 34  -2 10.4  3.2 Murray State            
 97 58  -2 10.3  3.1 Idaho State             
 98 26  -2  8.9  4.2 North Dakota            
 99 18  -2  9.4  3.8 South Dakota            
100 70  -2  9.9  3.2 Lamar                   
101 30  -2  8.4  4.4 Robert Morris           
102 18  -2  8.6  4.2 Rhode Island            
103 13  -2  9.0  3.9 Tennessee Tech          
104 16  -2  8.9  3.9 Weber State             
105 31  -2  9.3  3.5 Western Carolina        
106 35  -2  8.8  3.8 Texas Southern          
107 26  -3  8.4  3.9 Columbia                
108 34  -3  9.3  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
109 46  -3  8.3  3.9 Gardner - Webb          
110 11  -3  8.1  3.9 Delaware State          
111 18  -3  8.4  3.6 Northern Colorado       
112 11  -3  7.5  3.8 Presbyterian            
113 67  -4  8.8  2.7 Stetson                 
114 21  -4  8.1  3.2 Campbell                
115 10  -4  8.1  3.2 Mississippi Valley State
116 39  -4  8.9  2.3 Morehead State          
117 27  -4  8.6  2.4 Virginia Military       
118 94  -4  8.0  2.7 Valparaiso              
119 27  -5  7.6  2.2 Davidson                
120 13  -5  7.1  2.4 Incarnate Word          
121  7  -6  6.4  2.4 Austin Peay             
122  6  -8  6.3  1.2 Savannah State          
123  6  -8  6.2  0.8 Nicholls State          
124  5  -9  5.4  0.4 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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